Learning from National Cash Register's John H Patterson

Successful Investors are drawn towards successful businesses. And when I say successful businesses, I’m not referring to those standard ‘run of the mill’, ‘provides good returns’ type companies that most investors look for, but those that actually stand out from the crowd due to their innovative people and practices. These businesses are typically mavericks and icons that are industry leaders and are globally recognised for such. But the real power in these companies is that, once identified, they offer much more than just sound investing value - they allow us to learn from them. And its powerful learning, indeed; we not only learn what makes these companies tick, but also the minds of their founders or managers and what sets them apart from their competitors. Its this knowledge that often gives us an edge when we come to select future investment opportunities. This knowledge, more than anything, can teach us more about investing than the standard run of the mill quantitative methodologies that are still taught in most schools.

“If finance were — when finance is properly taught, it should be taught from cases where the investment decision is easy. And the one I always cite is the early history of National Cash Register Company, and that was created by a fanatic who bought all the patents, and had the best salesforce, and the best production plants. He was a very intelligent man and passionately dedicated to the cash register business. And of course, the cash register business was a godsend to retailing when cash registers were invented. So that was the pharmaceuticals of a former age. If you read an early annual report prepared by Patterson, who was CEO of National Cash Register, an idiot could see that this was a talented fanatic. The investment decision was easy. If I were teaching finance, I would collect a hundred cases like that. And that’s the way I would teach the students.” Charlie Munger

Given Charlie Munger’s success in the world of investing, his advice is worth heeding. Rather than relying on quantitative tools like spreadsheet modelling, beta calculations, or discounted cash flow analysis, Munger takes a more holistic approach, focusing on the key elements that will shape a business's future prospects. This approach is also shared by Warren Buffett, who famously remarked, "The only way we know how to make money is to try and evaluate businesses."

The business traits that consistently emerge as critical factors for a company's success have stood the test of time. From the titans of industry like Vanderbilt, Rockefeller, Henry Ford and John H Patterson, to modern-day icons like Jim Sinegal of Costco, Arthur Blank of Home Depot, or Yvon Chouinard of Patagonia, much of it has to do with people, human nature, and the process of innovation. None of these have changed much over time.

John H Patterson’s story is a fascinating one of entrepreneurial success. At the age of just twenty-five, he began selling coal on the side while doing his job managing a toll booth on a canal. Through his dedication to providing customers with more than they expected and always delivering on his promises, he quickly learned how to differentiate himself in a commodity business. Within a year, he had become a successful coal merchant.

As Patterson's success continued, he began to acquire additional assets, including a store, coal mines, and railways. However, despite his efforts, the store struggled to turn a profit. He eventually discovered that his clerks, incentivized to win customer favor and maximize orders, were consistently undercharging. To remedy the situation, he promptly fired the three clerks and installed two cash registers in their place. The change was so successful that Patterson and his brother underwrote a new script placement by the cash register’s maker, the National Manufacturing Company. A year later, after the company reported a loss, he had dumped most of the stock.

Picture Credits: NCR Annual Report 1906

When Patterson later stumbled upon a store manager whose business was being successfully run in his absence thanks to a few National Manufacturing cash registers, he grasped the potential of the machines to revolutionise American business. He determined to buy the company, offering the owner $6,500, which he accepted. The following day, Patterson offered $500 to annul the contract, but the owner refused. The seeds of an almost forty-year reign over the National Cash Register Company had been planted.

“I have in my files an early National Cash Register Company report in which Patterson described his methods and objectives. And a well-educated orangutan could see that buying into partnership with Patterson in those early days, given his notions about the cash register business, was a total 100% cinch.” Charlie Munger

Although nearly a century has passed since John H. Patterson passed away, the business principles he advocated for remain just as relevant today as they were in his time. Below, I've shared some of my favorite excerpts from Andrew Crowther's excellent book, "John H. Patterson: Pioneer in Industrial Welfare." Additionally, thanks to the detective work of Jessie Rancourt, you'll also find extracts from the 1906 Annual Report that Charlie Munger referred to in a speech given at the USC Business School in 1994.

Hire Right

We get the best class of people to come with us. Mr. Rockefeller, of the Standard Oil Company, says that success depends upon the selection of the right people.”

Tone from the Top

A boss whom the workers can see daily toiling away harder than any of them is certainly the one who will get the most work from his men.”

Business is founded on confidence; success on co-operation.”

Volume

"Charge a profit, a reasonable profit, but always a profit on every sale. Then make your real money by volume of business."

“Everybody knows that profit is the difference between expenses and receipts, and yet fully one half of the business men make more effort to cut down expenses than to increase their receipts.”

Exceed Customer Expectations

“Patterson said that no one had a right to expect business unless he satisfied customers. Every customer got what he paid for and a little more.”

“The smallest complaint was a personal affair for John Patterson and he settled each complaint to the absolute satisfaction of the customer and regardless of expense.”

"Every business which works for the betterment of humanity should be eagerly pressing forward and not waiting to be shoved forward. There are those who say that successful selling depends upon knowing what the public is asking for and then giving it to them. I do not agree with this viewpoint. I do not think that real success is attained by following in the wake of the public. My idea of successful business is this: Fill not only every known want of your customers but also have in ready reserve that which you calculate they are going to need next year or the year after.”

“We had to educate our first customers; we have to educate our present-day customers; and our thought has always been to keep just so far ahead that education of the buyer will always be necessary. Thus the market will be peculiarly our own our customers will feel that we are their natural teachers and leaders.”

Loyal & Repeat Customers

“The first sale of any device is to be considered only as a first lesson to the consumer. The big sales are always in the future.”

Appearances

The offices had to be clean. Mr. Patterson was about as neat a man as ever lived and everything about him had to be likewise. He thought that no man could do accurate work amidst disorder.”

Source: ‘From One to a Million’ 1911.

“It was Mr. Patterson’s nature to prescribe for his business and for those about him in every detail. He wanted all his salesmen and executives to be well dressed. In later years, when money was freer, he had a way of rounding up the men in the offices and sending them to New York "to get the hayseed off them." He would send men with orders to tailors for several suits of clothing; he bought travelling bags and neckties by the dozen. If a man were not shaved he would present him with a razor.”

“Do not hide your office on a side street or upstairs where no one can get at it. Have it where it will be easy to get at; fix up good window displays that will attract attention; have competent men to show machines to those who come in, and you will sell more machines in your office than you have ever before, and not only make your rent, but a handsome profit besides. ‘Light and cleanliness are the two great essentials to selling. A dark store is never as profitable as a light one. People are attracted by light. Many a store can be made light by knocking a few more holes in the wall. No one has yet failed in business because he spent too much money in lighting his store’”

Open-minded

It was possible to show him that he was wrong and he would reverse himself in an instant. For John Patterson, curiously enough, never had any pride of opinion; he was for some idea not because it was his but because it was right; show him that the idea was wrong and he was for the new right just as energetically as he had been for the old right!

Humility & Frugality

“Whenever business was booming and the sales people were congratulating themselves on how good they were, Patterson had a habit of drawing a wiggly line which by convention was known to be a snake and then lettering under it: "When the sun shines, look out for the adder."

“In the later years of his life, Mr. Patterson had a personal income of about half a million dollars. He could as easily have had double that income but he preferred to have the money stay in his institution. He made no investments of any kind. He had a modest house overlooking Dayton and a small camp in the Adirondacks. He bought a great tract of land with the idea in view of selling home sites to those who worked with him and of providing a natural park where the people of the city might get fresh air. Eventually he gave the tract to the city. He probably spent less money on himself than any rich man in the country. The remainder of his income he gave away and most of it he gave away personally with the sole idea of making better citizens, or, as he liked to put it, ‘making better business.’”

Incentives and Uncapped Earnings

“It is not human nature to work as hard when an income is assured as when the income depends solely on the effort exerted. It was not a new idea to put men on commission. It was a new idea to put them on commission in order that they could earn more. Patterson started in at once to help them to earn more.”

“The N. C. R. agents thought that if they made too much money Mr. Patterson would immediately cut their commissions. They could not understand any other course, and there was no reason why they should understand any other course. It was one of Mr. Patterson's hardest tasks at this time to convince the sales force that the N. C. R. interest was in having the largest possible number of cash registers sold and that the company could not make any money unless the agents did.”

Source: ‘From One to a Million,’ NCR 1911.

If you can sell a million dollars in a week, we'll hire a brass band to take your commission to you. We can't make any money unless you do." Mr. Patterson's actions in refusing to cut commissions were severely condemned by many men in business.”

“The profit-sharing plan has been many years in the making and is still in the experimental stage. Mr. Patterson approached wages never with the thought of how little he could pay, but first to see how much he could pay, and then to find what he could give in addition to the wages.”

“The plan was put into operation for the first time in 1917 and in its final form it operates in this fashion. (The executives under the plan do not receive salaries quite as large as they might receive in other companies of similar size. Their fortunes depend upon the fortunes of the company, but the workingmen have their shares over and above the highest going wages.) The profit-sharing plan provides that, after deducting from the year's profits a sum equal to 6 per cent interest on the money invested, the remainder is divided equally between the company and the employees. The half that goes to the company is used for buying additional land, buildings, machinery, inventions, and similar expenditures necessary in an expanding business. The company takes all the risk; the employees take none; but every increase of efficiency or elimination of waste on the part of an employee is reflected in the amount of the profits in which he shares.”

Three distributions of the profits are made to the employees each year..”

“One half of the employees' share, or 25 per cent of the total profits, is given to the managing employees, including executives, department heads, and their assistants, of which there are approximately 600. The remaining 25 per cent is divided between all other employees in the office and factory, with the exception of those who have been employed less than thirty days.”

This dividing of employees into groups is done on the theory that those who contribute the most to the making of the profits are entitled to the largest share in them.”

“Under this plan, not only do all employees, from the general manager to the messenger boy, have the incentive to do their best in their positions and thereby earn more profits, but the employees in the B, C, and D groups have the added incentive to advance into a higher group.”

Quality

“Our Test Department carefully examines the materials used to make National Cash Registers. We believe that nothing is too good for the merchants in all parts of the world who use these machines. Each register is rigidly inspected several times as it is built.”

Tough Times

“We can drop with business or we can build a bridge and go across. Let's build a bridge." His way of building a bridge was to intensify every sales effort. Patterson did not draw in for a panic. He put on extra effort, and each panic marked a substantial advance by the N. C. R. The company really grew up in the Panic of 1893.”

Mr. Patterson met that depression as he had met every other depression- -by drawing up a new sales plan, by holding conventions all over the country, by extending his advertising (Mr. Patterson always enlarged his advertising when business was bad for it was then, as he said, it was most needed), and by putting on sales pressure from every direction.”

Patterson believed that cutting down expenses to make ends meet was the surest possible way to prevent them from meeting. He held that cutting down expenses cut down initiative and energy. If his bank account became anaemic, he went right out after the fresh blood of new business. He doubled his volume in the depression following the Panic of 1893. John Patterson was always at his finest when in trouble. He fairly revelled in it.”

Innovation & Continuous Improvement

“[Patterson implemented] the policy of never considering the product as finished and which was to resolve into a definite policy a few years later when he formally established the inventions department, which became so famous.”

Patterson said to his people and repeated thousands of times afterward: "Send in the complaints. They are our schoolbooks from which we learn what is needed and how to remedy the difficulty. We propose so to improve the quality of our registers as to make them look as finished as a watch."

Every idea that seemed to have merit was tested. It was axiomatic that everything being done by Patterson’s company was to the end of preparing to do it better.”

“With the new building came the formal establishment of one of the fundamentals of the success of the company and an idea which Mr. Patterson was the first to work out the Inventions Department. Previously Mr. Patterson had himself been the department.”

“Patterson had it firmly fixed in mind that the product must ever be improved, and gradually this became an integral part of the business.”

We shall continue to experiment and give all ideas scientific, thorough, and practical tests before putting the same on machines. No expense or trouble will be spared to fully try all ideas advanced to us by our representatives, or to try and overcome any fault that may be discovered in the present machine.”

The business that is satisfied with itself, with its product, with its sales, which looks upon itself as having accomplished its purpose is dead. The actual burial may be postponed; but it is dead because it is not going forward. To my mind, nothing can ever be good enough.”

I am always dissatisfied; I preach dissatisfaction. I can always see where something might be better; and therefore our business is never at rest and I never want it to be. The throbbing heart of business is the intense desire to do better. When that desire ceases, the heart stops.”

Patterson was afraid of contentment. He was afraid of people around him becoming content. He refused to believe in perfection other than as a goal far off that could never be reached. He would seldom praise a good piece of work and if he did he would join an exhortation with the praise, as: "That's fine, now do better.”

Much of the growth of this business is due to the constant improvement of our product. For thirty-six years every effort has been made to make National Cash Registers meet the needs of merchants in all parts of the world. We are never satisfied, but are always trying to improve.”

Filling a need

Patterson went into the making of cash registers only because he thought every merchant would eventually have to use one. Thereafter he worked on the theory not of supplying what the buyer wanted for the buyers then did not want cash registers; he worked on the theory of supplying what the buyer could use to the best possible advantage once he had been taught the need.”

Advertising & Social Proof

Advertising differed from any which up to that time had been seen, in that every piece held a reason why the purchase of a register would make money for the purchaser. It was educational advertising. He borrowed from the patent-medicine people the wrinkle of attaching testimonials of satisfied users.”

"‘We know nothing about advertising,' said Mr. Patterson,’ but we want to learn. ‘Some day we will have a big business. Good advertising will get it for us. Visit the agents. Secure all the ideas from them that you can. Find out their needs. Those men are in the field and they know what is needed.’ John H. Patterson never pretended to know anything about advertising, but as a matter of fact he was probably the first man in any business other than the patent medicine to make advertising an integral part of his business.”

Word of Mouth

“From the beginning Mr. Patterson insisted that no advertising could equal the word-of-mouth advertising of the satisfied user.”

Patterson recognized that the best salesmen were contented customers and so he made it a primary principle that any man who bought must not only be satisfied with the purchase but must be kept satisfied by being instructed not only how to use his machine, but also how to make money out of it. Considering his ideals, any other course was impossible to him.”

Low Prices

“The object of The N. C. R. Co. is to stop the open cash drawer - to sell at lowest prices and benefit the billion. National Cash Registers are the lowest-priced machinery sold in the world.”

Reinvestment & Retained Earnings

From the very beginning Patterson regarded a profit not at all as a personal perquisite but as something to put back into the business to make it bigger and better. He put back the profits with supreme confidence. He was always willing to go down with the ship.”

Obliquity

“One of the reasons for Patteron’s success was that from the very first he had objectives larger than his business—he never worked for money as money. He did not believe in sharp shooting for profits. He wanted his money to come as an incident to service. One finds that men do not create success—whatever the definition of the moment may be—unless they believe in themselves and in what they are doing.”

Good Profits

Mr. Patterson insisted then, and it is now everywhere considered a sound sales policy, that a sale should not be made to any one who could not make money out of what he bought. His messages all went to show the merchant's need of a register and not the N. C. R.s need of a sale. There is a distinction here which is not yet universally grasped.”

Transparency

Mr. Patterson wanted to be constantly in touch with all of the agents. He thought that a business should not have secrets but that what one agent knew was good for every other agent to know. He believed that the progress of business depends upon the interchange of information among those in business.”

Internal Competition

“Mr. Patterson not only put into The N. C. R. (a bulletin to salesmen) the records made during the month by each salesman and as much of their methods as they would write in to him, but also he began to go around among the agencies himself and to publish in the paper the most interesting experiences that he encountered.”

A man who made a good record had his picture printed in The N. C. R. with an account of what he had done - Patterson did this partly to reward the man and partly to challenge all the other men to go and do likewise.”

“The men who sold their full quotas were designated members of the Hundred Point Club and invited to Dayton for the annual convention. The man who first got his quota in the year was the president of the club, the second man was the vice-president, and the third was the secretary, and the fourth was the treasurer. Thus evolved a unique organization of best salesmen, and each year since its inception the club conventions have been growing in importance until they now are the event of the Dayton year.”

Guaranteed Territories - Sharing Ideas

“We bring all of you people together and we ask one person and another person to get up and talk and then we ask for criticisms and suggestions. “Now, why do we do that? We couldn’t do that if we didn’t have guaranteed territories. You people wouldn’t be here to teach others to go into your territory and sell goods in your territory and get all the benefit of what you know. You would keep everything to yourselves. Guaranteed territory prevents all that and therefore you are able to come here and help each other.”

Value Employees

“The success of this company has been due to the enthusiasm we have been able to inspire in it, by persevering, by coaxing, by forcing, by recognising merit, by publishing good things done, by offering prizes. To be successful you must not only have ability but you must treat your men so that they will have confidence in you and in the company."

“Patterson began the idea of the modern factory; a place in which human beings might work in the greatest comfort, with entire self-respect and with the highest efficiency. The old idea was that a factory was just a place to work and that the employees were ‘hands.’"

"Labour is suspicious- and has a right to be. Generally speaking, it is not fairly treated and it has not been given either its rightful share in industry or its proportion of income. The idea has been to get everything that is to be had out of a man, keep him down, regulate his wages by the smallest amount he will take and not by what he is worth, and when he is worn out, to throw him off like an old shoe.”

Enthusiasm is the biggest asset in business. It is the one thing that you have to work eternally to keep up. The N. C. R. was built by the enthusiasm of the organization both in the shops and in the field.”

“I have found that a man lacks enthusiasm when:

  1. He has not an appreciation of the work in hand.

  2. He is out of sympathy with what you are doing.

  3. He lacks knowledge of the business and the motives of the officers.

  4. He is not in harmony with his surroundings.

  5. He does not realise his obligations.

Treat people well and they will treat you well. They will not instantly respond but they will in the long run. Be square with them.”

"Do not try to take any advantage and do not try to get the last cent's worth of energy out of them. They will give you their best if they think you are giving them your best; they will not work the better for being forced.”

"It pays to do good; it pays to help them to help themselves in every moral and physical way and also to give them every possible opportunity for advancing to higher positions and more money.”

“We take the attitude that if anything more can be done not reasonably done, but if it can be done at all for the improvement of comfort or safety, we will do it.”

Source: ‘From One to a Million’ 1911.

“I am so thoroughly convinced that it pays that I would recommend changes to keep labour happy no matter what might be the immediate effect upon our business, for it is only the ultimate effect that counts.”

Probably no individual ever did as much as Mr. Patterson toward providing for the pleasure and recreation of those who worked with him.”

“Every plan of the N. C. R. was designed to estimate men by their results and then to pay them by their results. Whenever possible he liked to overpay.”

The more we do for our employees, the better work they can do.”

We found that people do the best work when they are best cared for. Nothing is more important to workers than good food. Three dining rooms are operated for our employees. Warm, substantial, well-cooked meals are furnished at cost, and often less than cost.”

Mr. Patterson's policy of trying always to have the N. C. R. do more for those who work for it wholeheartedly than any other company had ever thought of doing for its people. For that was Mr. Patterson's way with men.”

“For a factory was to Mr. Patterson not an assorted lot of bricks and mortar surrounding an assorted lot of iron and steel contrivances. A factory to him was a collection of human beings.”

Source: ‘From One to a Million’ 1911.

“During the critical years when the N. C. R. was building, a fair portion of the citizens of Dayton and all the politicians did everything in their power to block any movement which might benefit the N. C. R. Mr. Patterson was regarded as a menace. For who had ever heard of treating employees the way he treated them, or paying higher wages than it was necessary to pay? And why have so much nonsense about buildings and landscape gardening? Why not run a factory instead of a show?

Mr. Patterson believed that clubs promoted social and business intercourse, understanding, and cooperation. He inspired the organisation of the Dayton Woman's Club and largely financed the purchase of its fine clubhouse. In the factory he organised the Advance and Progress Club for executives, in addition to the Woman's Century Club for women employees, and the N. C. R. Women's Club for the women of N. C. R. employees' families. The Old Barn Club was the personal property of Mr. Patterson, but he turned it over to public use in order to provide country club advantages.”

Workers are entitled to decent and comfortable surroundings at their work. Good working conditions keep workers healthy and happy and add to their self-respect. No employer can afford to provide work places that injure the efficiency of employees. When workers are contented they do more and better work."

Incentives

"Keeping workmen is not altogether a matter of wages, but the wages are of the highest importance. I have always believed in paying men well, but paying them on results. Every job that can be so arranged is on the piece-work basis; we encourage the making of the highest possible wages.”

Staff Turnover

Our labour turnover is trivial when compared with most concerns of our size.”

Promote from Within

“Patterson’s ventures in hiring stars were all failures and the men who really helped him make the company were all men who had come up through the ranks.”

Walk the Floors

Mr. Patterson moved his desk out among the machinery and at once he began in his characteristic way to work through the men toward the product. He began to call meetings of the foremen and job foremen.”

“When the business was smaller I used to travel about through the shops a great deal, knowing everyone, and taking pains to ask them if they had anything to suggest. Then I had them in meetings and I called for suggestions.”

Patterson for the first time really saw what the agents were doing, he had never before inspected the front-line trenches. He had stayed at headquarters. But after that trip no executive of the company was ever permitted long to remain at headquarters; they were supposed to be out on the road holding conventions of salesmen and finding out why registers were being sold or why they were not being sold.”

Harness Technology

“Much of the work in this factory is done with the aid of machinery. Improved machinery has enabled us to do many things more quickly and better than they were done in the past. It enables us to pay high wages and still sell our cash registers at such low prices. Machinery makes men dear, their products cheap.”

Training

"Teaching is my hobby and we provide the means to find knowledge. The employees have to go to some trouble to stop learning. It takes many forms and directions.“

“Then began the idea of holding night classes so that the employees could learn how to get better jobs for themselves. The whole atmosphere gradually became one of teaching and as such it continued--with the N. C. R. as a university and with every executive and employee, from Mr. Patterson down, as students.”

“When Building No. 3 was finished, part of it was turned into a large schoolroom - an unheard-of idea at the time. Many manufacturers inquired whether Mr. Patterson was running a business or a school. His invariable reply was: ‘Business is only teaching.’”

Ideas

Out of the plan to hold forth rewards for thinking came the suggestion system for the factory force, the profit-sharing plan for both the factory and office, and the famous Hundred Point Club for the salesmen. The suggestion system was another of Mr. Patterson's new ideas.”

I was depending solely for ideas upon myself and upon the comparatively few men about me, and I had no means of knowing who were the bright lads scattered throughout the organisation. That is, I was not only throwing away the brains of about five thousand people, which should have been concentrated in making business better.”

“The suggestion system which has grown and grown until in one year some 3,200 suggestions were submitted.

We decided that a complaint was truly a suggestion leading to an improvement, and therefore to-day both complaints and suggestions are on the same basis. We placed all over the factory suggestion boxes in which any member of the organisation might place his idea and we gave one dollar apiece for suggestions or complaints.”

Instead of paying for a suggestion we found that greater enthusiasm was aroused and more suggestions offered by making a contest. We have two contests in each year, one ending June 30th and the other December 31st. Twelve hundred dollars is offered in 128 prizes; the best suggestion adopted receives $100, the next $75, the next $50, the next $30, the next three $25 each, the next six $20 each, the next thirty-five $10 each.”

We ask [employees] for help from them on all divisions of the business.”

Most of the mechanical improvements in the cash register of today are due to suggestions from employees.”

“Take a typical six months. The number of suggestions received was 3,536; the number of suggestions adopted was 1,315 or 37.2 per cent scattered among 58% employees. Of these 128 received prizes.”

"The suggestions cover the entire mechanical and selling operation of our business, and although I regard the financial gain as highly important, I do not think that it is anything like as important as that other gain which we cannot measure in money- the bringing of men with ideas to top positions in our organisation.”

National Cash Register Employees Dayton Ohio - 1910

“With ideas it is different. It may very well be that the chap with the most active mind and who will do the most to promote the business will not necessarily be the most expert with his hands. Indeed, the best idea men are not commonly the most expert workmen. I have found that the very active brain does not as a rule seem to go with the super-skilled hand,”

The employee is encouraged to observe, think, and suggest, and that alone makes a better man of him. He knows that if he gets into the limelight through his suggestions he is going to get a better job.”

Practically every one of our present factory executives and foremen reached his position through making suggestions.”

Local Focus

It was Patterson’s constant aim to have as leaders for the various organisations natives of the respective countries, and eliminate everything American from the organisations that could in any way be objected to by the natives. Mr. Patterson was thoroughly international and felt at home in whichever country he has happened to visit. He respected and complied with the customs of each country and always impressed upon the leaders of the organisations that they should adapt our business and business methods as much as possible to local conditions.”

Delegation

“Mr. Patterson [had the] new idea of deliberate delegation of duties; the old idea of business was that the executive should delegate to others only that for which he could not find time himself. The new idea of Mr. Patterson's was that an executive should do only what he could not delegate that the chief business of an executive was to think and to plan. Hence his motto: “Never do anything if you can get someone else to do it.”

That business is best which requires the least attention from the head. The pyramid plan of organisation is used at this factory. Everyone has certain duties and responsibilities. This permits the management to give a part of their time to planning for the future.”

Mr. Patterson was a strong believer in giving authority and placing responsibility on the officers and employees of the company, and by placing confidence in them he made them self-relying.”

Emergent Effects

When a few men try to carry the entire load the business suffers. It does not progress as it should. When everyone shoulders his part of the responsibility it is much easier to go ahead. Great tasks can only be accomplished by the assistance of all parts of an organisation.”

Fanatic

Mr. Patterson would not tolerate the sort of man who amasses a fortune, calls himself successful, and retires to bask in the light of past performance. When something was finished, Mr. Patterson crossed it off his chart and went on with the next thing. And when he died his chart was fuller of things to do than at any time before in his life.”

“It is to be remembered that he started late that he was past forty before he took on the N. C. R. He fought, and he worked night and day against odds almost impossible to realise. Often, had he admitted to himself the possibility of being bankrupt, he would have been bankrupt. Not recognising failure, he could not fail. He expected obstacles and it did not make much difference what kind of obstacles at the moment stood in his way he had accustomed himself to dealing with all kinds.”

“Every day Patterson made notes of the things that he should not have done during that day and resolved not to do them again.”

Men do not do big things in dilettante fashion—they put their whole selves in their work, making all else subordinate.”

Keep it Simple

The great company was brought about—step by step and by methods which, although they sound pretentious in generalisation, were exquisitely simple.”

Humility

Patterson had no conception of leisure. Patterson detested the "idle rich"; whenever he heard of a man building a palace or spending some great sum on a necklace, he usually drew a chart to show how much good that man missed doing by not devoting the money to education or to the saving of babies. He never bought an expensive painting in his life; he was not opposed to purchases in the interest of the public, but he spoke bitterly of those who would pay a quarter of a million for a canvas to hang in their own homes where only they and their friends could have the benefit.”

Patterson considered himself only a trustee of what he earned, and his expenditures had to be governed by the laws he made for his trusteeship. He expressed his whole theory of the use of money and of the function of the large corporation in pyramid form and it explains intimately how he shaped his life.”

Mr. Patterson gives to deserving but unfortunate employees and to others. He keeps only enough for his board and clothes and necessaries for himself and children. He has no outside investments except Hills and Dales which the people enjoy with him. On his last trip he can take nothing with him, as shrouds have no pockets.”

“Patterson believed in the equality of effort, not of remuneration. A workman earning twenty-five dollars a week for good work stood just as high with him as an executive drawing fifty thousand dollars a year. When he found the office girls were holding themselves above the factory girls because they could wear better clothing while at work he put all the girls in the organization into white aprons.”

Multi-Disciplinary & Learning

“It must be remembered that Mr. Patterson was an almost uncannily skilled adapter rather than an originator; the line between adapting and originating is hard to draw for he got suggestions from quarters where no other human being would have found them and then turned them in such fashion that no one else would have recognised the suggestion.”

Patterson read or had read for him every business publication; if he found good ideas in a book or magazine article, he bought hundreds of copies and sent them to his executives. He was always learning and he expected everyone about him to be learning.”

Summary

In his annual Berkshire letter, Buffett emphasizes that he and Charlie prioritize picking wonderful businesses over selecting stocks. This approach, which involves identifying the characteristics of exceptional businesses, buying them, and holding them for the long term, has been key to Berkshire Hathaway's success.

John H Patterson, a visionary leader, implemented several innovative strategies that propelled National Cash Register to become one of the most successful companies of its time. As Charlie Munger put it, Patterson "surfed" a technology evolution while delivering customers far more in value than their cost. Patterson's focus on empowering workers, promoting reciprocation, selling based on value-add, sharing profits, striving for continuous improvements, and soliciting ideas from front-line employees helped create an exceptional business that continues to inspire successful companies today.

These principles are based on fundamental truths: customers reward outstanding service, employees want to feel valued and incentivized, innovation comes from trial and error, sharing information adds value, hard work leads to results, and mistakes are opportunities for learning. Ultimately, customers want to be delighted. Keep these principles in mind when evaluating a business, as they have been proven to work time and time again. The fact they form the foundation of Charlie Munger’s recommended study into the investment process, suggests they can add value to each of us.

 




Sources:
John H. Patterson: Pioneer in Industrial Welfare,” Samuel Crowther, Doubleday, Page & Company, 1923.

Picture Credits -
NCR Annual Report 1906 - h/t Jessie Rancourt



Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest
Visit the
Blog Archive



TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER





Learning from IKEA’s Ingvar Kamprad

Some brands are so powerful in their categories, so innovative in their thinking and design and so well marketed they have become synonymous with our everyday lives; quite simply, they have become iconic. Apple’s iPad or iPhone are good examples, as is Nike and their sporting equipment and Amazon and their online retail platform. And when you think of flat pack or ‘build it yourself’ furniture, the only name that comes to mind is IKEA.

But its not only about product or brand awareness. The hallmark of many of the successful businesses we've studied has been their strong business model, the unique organizational cultures shaped by visionary leadership, an agility in responding to change, and the unwavering commitment to long-term goals and IKEA, the furniture business founded by Ingvar Kamprad, is a prime example of these successful business traits.

Kamprad saw the opportunity to provide well designed furniture at affordable prices to the general public and created a business model that democratized luxury. From the start, his goal was to offer prices much lower than competitors, achieved through unconventional methods such as large showrooms outside cities, sourcing from low-cost locations, flat-packing for distribution savings, self-service and assembly to reduce production costs, and a focus on high volume for economies of scale.

Like many successful companies, including Nike, Disney, Hershey, FedEx, and Amazon, IKEA encountered obstacles in its early days that threatened its success. One of these challenges was the resistance from existing furniture retailers to Ikea's low-priced products, which led to suppliers boycotting the company. This forced Kamprad to look for suppliers in communist Poland, where he discovered significant cost savings. Another issue was that the company's original mail-order model faced competition from low-quality products offered by other firms, which eroded customer trust. To overcome this, Kamprad opened a showroom to display Ikea's products, setting the stage for the development of its worldwide store network. Through these challenges, IKEA was able to turn obstacles into opportunities.

Kamprad's frugal nature and focus on cost control allowed for low prices and drove growth through increased volume and economies of scale. His long-term commitment to providing furniture at accessible prices for a wider audience enabled the business to expand globally and attain substantial long-term value, even at the cost of near-term dilution to earnings, which may not have been feasible under public ownership.

Kamprad embodies the qualities of a true ‘business fanatic’ admired by Buffett and Munger. Decades ago, he restructured the business, transferring a significant portion of ownership to a charitable foundation. He was a visionary leader who never stopped striving to improve the business, always with an eye towards ensuring its longevity beyond his lifetime. Though he has passed, his legacy lives on in the spirit of IKEA, which remains committed to delivering quality furniture at accessible prices to all, as he envisioned from the beginning.

A few years ago, I was astounded by the timeless relevance of Ingvar's 1976 "Testament of a Furniture Dealer." Recently, I had the pleasure of meeting a former country head of IKEA who recommended two books: "Leading by Design - The Ikea Story" by Ingvar Kamprad and Bertil Torekul, and "The IKEA Edge" by Anders Dahlvig. I've used these sources to shed light on the key qualitative attributes that have driven IKEA’s exceptional success as one of the world's leading companies.

Democratising Luxury

“Ikea was intended to make the kind of quality products afforded by the rich available to everyone else.” Anders Dahlvig

“The product range – our identity. We shall offer a wide range of well-designed, functional home furnishing products at prices so low that as many people as possible will be able to afford them.” Ingvar Kamprad

“What keeps me going is the feeling that in a wider sense I am participating in a gigantic project of democratisation, though a different one from what is normally talked about.” Ingvar Kamprad

“Expressed a trifle solemnly, our business philosophy contributes to the democratising process. It makes good, handsome, and cheap everyday articles available to a great many people at a price they can afford.” Ingvar Kamprad

Scale-Economics-Shared

Ikea spared no efforts to decrease the buying costs of the products. However, unlike many companies, it reinvested these improvements in lower prices to the customer, and did not primarily use them in improving margins. This is a very different business model compared to most other retail companies. Herein, we see one of the basic elements of the Ikea model. The company focused on developing its customer base, even if it meant, in the short term, sacrificing its profit margins.” Anders Dahlvig

Low Prices & Quality

“‘Delivering prices so low that the many people will be able to afford them.’ This is the most fundamental statement that exists in Ikea's business model. Low prices take priority over everything else. Low prices are the very foundation of the vision and business idea.” Anders Dahlvig

It is the many people whom we aim to serve. The first rule is to maintain an extremely low level of prices. But they must be low prices with a meaning. We must not compromise either functionality or technical quality.” Ingvar Kamprad

No effort must be spared to ensure our prices are perceived to be low. There shall always be a substantial price difference compared to our competitors, and we shall always have the best value-for-money offers for every function. Every product area must include ‘breath-taking offers.’” Ingvar Kamprad

Low price is written into our business idea as an essential condition for our success. Anyone can tell you that it’s impossible to have a low price, good quality and good profitability if you don’t have low costs. So cost-consciousness has to permeate everything we do, almost to the point of that kind of exaggerated meanness that some may call ‘penny-pinching.’” Ingvar Kamprad

The company's focus is on decreasing sales prices to customers and making products affordable to more and more people. Lower sales prices deliver higher sales volume.” Anders Dahlvig

“The internal goal is to always have prices at least 20 percent below the competition on comparable products, and often even more than that. For instance, between 1999 and 2009, we strove to reduce prices by 20 percent.” Anders Dahlvig

“To be able to compete on prices and maintain a profitable business, retailers must be better than the competition at operating efficient stores.” Anders Dahlvig

“Ingvar took self-assembly as his starting point in the actual manufacturing process and changing this and that there, cutting away a millimetre here, a centimetre there, all with the aim of saving material and keeping the price down.” Bertil Torekull

“From Kamprad comes the same perpetually driving question: How can we make it a little cheaper? What do you think? Of course we can.” Bertil Torekull

“One of IKEA’s basic principles is that of ‘the substantial price difference.’” Bertil Torekull

“Throughout its history, IKEA has shown that it is focused on customer need for quality furniture that does what the consumer wants it to do.” Anders Dahlvig

Competitive Advantage & Long Term Focus

 “The aim of our effort to build up financial resources is to reach a good result in the long term. You know what it takes to do that: we must offer the lowest prices, and we must combine them with good quality. If we charge too much, we will not be able to offer the lowest prices. If we charge too little, we will not be able to build up resources. A wonderful problem! It forces us to develop products more economically, to purchase more efficiently and to be constantly stubborn in cost savings of all kinds. That is our secret. That is the foundation of our success.” Ingvar Kamprad

Ingvar Kamprad [Source: IKEA]

“Innovations in the retail industry are often easy to copy, and potential differentiation is short lived. Substantial success can only be achieved only when a retailer has a unique product range and is in control of the whole value chain.” Anders Dahlvig

“By doing things differently, companies can establish a unique position in the market, one on which they can thrive for a long time.” Anders Dahlvig

“The Swedish range expression is one of the company's important competitive advantages.” Anders Dahlvig

Why do customers choose Ikea over other retailers? What are the customer needs that Ikea satisfies?

  • Design, function, and quality at low prices

  • Unique (Scandinavian) design

  • Inspiration, ideas, and complete solutions

  • Everything in one place

  • ‘A day out,’ the shopping experience

These five success criteria come across as very basic solutions to customer needs. You may well say that they are similar to those of most companies. The difference, in my opinion, is that Ikea is much better at delivering on these customer needs than are other retailers. The company's business model represents a blueprint for how they are executed. Most competitors focus on one or at most two of these customer needs. The real strength of Ikea lies in the combination of all five.” Anders Dahlvig

Cost-consciousness must be a part of every priority. Having said that, our vision is a long-term vision, and it can only be achieved with strong profitability on a long-term basis. This means we must be prepared to accept a lower level of profit, in the short term, if this puts us in a stronger long-term position. So when the economy slows down, we will continue to invest in our concept, sticking to the investment programs in our stores, sticking to our training programs and our pricing targets.” Anders Dahlvig

Differentiation

The product range is at the core of any retail company. Being able to differentiate in range and price versus the competition is more important than any other aspect of retailing. Location, services, store standards, etc., are all important, but they are secondary to having an attractive product offering. Range differentiation is a major challenge in many retail sectors, such as food, DIY, or electronics, where the major brands are developed and owned by other companies further back in the value chain. Ikea controls the entire value chain including the product range, a factor that puts it in a good position.” Anders Dahlvig

“To be really successful in global expansion, you need to offer something unique, something the local competition cannot match.” Anders Dahlvig

Differentiation in product range and price is key to superior profitability. When the product range is controlled by other companies as is commonly the case in the fast-moving consumer goods sector (FMCG)-retail companies have a problem. Retail sectors where this is a dilemma include the food sector, the DIY sector, and the electronics sector. In these sectors, the range is pretty much the same among different retailers, and competing on price is almost impossible. The brand owners are interested in keeping stable prices, and the retailers have a hard time competing on price… When all other components are the same, size seems to make difference to profitability.” Anders Dahlvig

“‘No-brand’ retailers have a much bigger challenge [trying to compete] since they need to increase the level of own brands and ideally move to 100 percent. This is not just a matter of ‘fixing’ some products. It means a total transformation of the company.” Anders Dahlvig

Financial Resilience

IKEA catalogue 1970 [Source: IKEA Museum]

Ikea has a very conservative financing policy - earn your money before you spend it. Growth is important, but you should take good care of your customers before you add new ones (i.e., new stores and markets). Development comes from listening to and learning from your customers, not from a quick-fix copy of what the competition is doing.” Anders Dahlvig

“With a liquidity of 20 percent and a solvency of 50 percent, both IKEA and Ingvar Kamprad reveal themselves. For thus have the laws been since the birth of IKEA: A good cash reserve always must be ensured, all property must be owned, all expansion must be self-financed.”

Acquisitions

All growth so far has been organic. Ikea has been reluctant to grow through acquisition and merger with other companies. With a strong culture and specific needs in terms of store size and location, it is very difficult to find a suitable company to acquire. I think it is fair to say that Ikea is not in a hurry. This may seem like a contradiction, given the track record of fast growth over many years.” Anders Dahlvig

Growth and Profitability

Growing sales in existing stores is the most cost-efficient way to grow the company. Second to that is to build new stores in existing markets. The most expensive option is to open in new markets.” Anders Dahlvig

Ikea thrives on growth. Its history is all about growth. And I believe opening new stores is the engine of most retailing.” Anders Dahlvig

“If we had taken ten kronor for that mug, and not five, then we would, of course, have ‘earned’ more on each mug - perhaps one and a half kronor - and had a better ‘gross profit margin.’ But we would have sold only half a million of them instead of almost twelve million, on which we now earn one kronor each.” Ingvar Kamprad

Big sales volumes create buying price advantages.” Anders Dahlvig

Don’t Fear Mistakes

Ingvar Kamprad [Source: IKEA]

Only while sleeping one makes no mistakes. Making mistakes is the privilege of the active – of those who can correct their mistakes and put them right. Our objectives require us to constantly practise making decisions and taking responsibility, to constantly overcome our fear of making mistakes. The fear of making mistakes is the root of bureaucracy and the enemy of development.” Ingvar Kamprad

No one has had as many fiascos as I’ve had. Only those who are asleep make no mistakes.” Ingvar Kamprad

“In IKEA’s business philosophy, the whole matter should be inscribed as a golden rule: regard every problem as a possibility. New problems create a dizzying chance.” Ingvar Kamprad

Delegate & Empower

“Accepting and delegating responsibility -  In an expanding company there is neither the time nor the resources to work out precise descriptions of all the different areas of responsibility and draw up the boundaries between them – especially as there is always going to be a lot of new, unoccupied positions. This means that we must always be willing to accept and to delegate responsibility.” Ingvar Kamprad

“We often must have the courage to promote people who show potential even before they have any documented experience. We encourage those who have the desire and the courage to take responsibility when given a relatively free hand. We could give many examples of young co-workers who have taken responsibility and reached a position which would never have been possible in any other company.” Ingvar Kamprad

The framework is sacrosanct, but within it is freedom, and a wealth of innovation is allowed to explode.” Ingvar Kamprad

Value Employees

“The companies whose staff see their job as merely a meal ticket – they are the companies which have problems. No one can be happy or do a good job unless they like the place where they work. After all, it’s there that they spend most of their waking hours. Feeling appreciated and motivated leads to good results. Many surveys have shown that co-workers tend not to regard things like salary, working hours and a company car as the most important things. For them, interesting tasks, the feeling that their efforts are appreciated by managers and co-workers alike; the pleasure of being part of a successful team; and a sense of “belonging” and togetherness, both at work as well as outside work, are far more important criteria.” Ingvar Kamprad

What is fundamental in leadership? Love. Deep down is a genuine sense of caring.” Ingvar Kamprad

Share of Voice vs Share of Market

“That the Ikea brand is bigger than the company’s actual size is shown by the fact that in 2007 Ikea was ranked only number 37 in sales among all retail companies. However, in terms of brand recognition, the ranking was number 38 among all global brands and first among retail companies.” Anders Dahlvig

Culture

The company culture is the glue that keeps the organisation together, that makes the company different from all others. It is, quite simply, the soul of the company. To keep it strong, therefore, it has to be integral to everything you do.” Anders Dahlvig

Companies that build a strong company culture that is adapted to their business have a powerful marketplace advantage.” Anders Dahlvig

Tone from the Top

The leaders of the company must be living examples of the values; Ikea’s culture must be reflected in everything they do. This is something they can never delegate away or compromise on.” Anders Dahlvig

“All elements of what today is called the Ikea culture are in fact the values and characteristics of Kamprad himself.” Anders Dahlvig

Kamprad’s unpretentiousness became the example, and later on it never paid to have any special pretensions. Those who tried did not survive long and left of their own accord.” Bertil Torekull

IKEA Catalogue 1954 [Source: IKEA Museum]

Promote from Within

“The founder is still there after 65 years, and during those decades the company has had only three CEOs, all internal promotions.” Anders Dahlvig

Ikea promotes the highest levels of management internally, which ensures stability and understanding of the criteria for success.” Anders Dahlvig

Walk the Floor

“Understanding the details of all levels of the business is an important part of kea's values. Managers must have experience on the shop floor and spend time in the stores and at the suppliers. Ikea promotes this through so called anti-bureaucratic weeks, during which corporate managers are encouraged to take time out from their regular work and spend time working in the stores in order to better understand the realities of the customers and employees.” Anders Dahlvig

Hiring

Recruit the Right People. How high you set the bar when recruiting will determine how successful you will be. Lower demands equal lower results; higher demands bring higher results. When in doubt, do not recruit, even if you are under pressure to fill a vacancy. Most of the time, your gut feeling is correct. External recruitment, in most cases, should be a last resort.” Anders Dahlvig

Staffing a company with the best people is key to achieving the best business results.” Anders Dahlvig

“A cornerstone of the company’s practices became the culture of promoting people on potential rather than experience.” Anders Dahlvig

“The company uses ‘value based recruitment’ in all parts of the company. Candidates must be suitable not only from a standpoint of technical competence, but also whether they share the company's values.” Anders Dahlvig

“Seventy-five percent of Ike employees work in the stores. The most important task of the store is to attract, develop, and retain good people.” Anders Dahlvig

“Ikea’s policy regarding the salaries the company pays is to position itself in the middle of the market. The salaries Ikea offers its employees must be fair, but they must not be the main reason for choosing to work for the company.” Anders Dahlvig

Ownership

“We want managers and co-workers who understand all aspects of Ikea’s operations; people who can think about their function, but are able to think like owners too.” Anders Dahlvig

Headquarters

The store managers and buyers are the heroes of the company.” Anders Dahlvig

“In total, global staff functions, including finance, HR, marketing, sales, restaurants, property, legal, and so forth had around 260 people in 2008. The company had about 125,000 employees.” Ander Dahlvig

“We want a lean, effective, highly competent Service Office organisation with a passion to give the best possible service to the stores.” Anders Dahlvig

Encourage Ideas

We encourage our co-workers to come up with unconventional ideas and to dare to try them out. Of course, this has to happen under controlled conditions within the framework of our concept, and it is certainly no excuse for foolhardiness. After all, you only need to invent the wheel once.” Ingvar Kamprad

“IKEA encourages everyone to come up with new and better approaches, giving all employees the opportunity to be part of development and change.” Anders Dahlvig

Obliquity

“For those who are motivated by profits and through profits by the creation of their own wealth, we must make the case that this objective is best achieved through being a good company because good companies attract good people who can then deliver the profits.” Anders Dahlvig

“Companies should seek to deliver value in a broader sense than merely returning value to shareholders. They have a larger social mission beyond profit.” Anders Dahlvig

IKEA catalogue 1967 [Source: IKEA Museum]

Purpose

Most people feel motivated and happy if work has a bigger meaning beyond power, wealth, and other inflated statements.” Anders Dahlvig

Most people want more from their lives than just to earn their keep, provide for their family, and live for the moment. With a greater purpose than just making money, companies can provide a larger meaning in work and life for their many employees, which is something many people look for.” Anders Dahlvig

“Studies show that people who work for IKEA believe that they really are working for a better society and therefore like working for IKEA. They believe that in their daily lives they are contributing to a better world.” Ingvar Kamprad

Humility & Frugality

“We do not need fancy cars, posh titles, tailor-made uniforms or other status symbols. We rely on our own strength and our own will.” Ingvar Kamprad

“We must be willing to accept criticism and act upon it without delay. Listen to customers, suppliers and others around you.” Ingvar Kamprad

“Simple habits, simple actions and a healthy aversion to status symbols are a part of the IKEA culture, but we must never forget to show respect for each other.” Ingvar Kamprad

At Ikea, people greet each other with first names. Managers and employees on all levels conduct business travel in the same way - there's none of the division between first-class and coach that one sees at many organizations. Managers and employees eat together in the staff canteen. Everyone adopts the same informal and common dress code. The company tries to eliminate all status symbols and create a trustful relationship between employees and managers.” Anders Dahlvig

I have always said that I believe that the biggest threat to Ikea is Ikea itself. Some worry that some new technological innovation will come along and change the game of home furnishing retailing in a way that would jeopardize Ikea. However, I think this is unlikely. Competitors so far have shown little sign of innovation, and people will, I assume, need home furnishings in the future. The big threat is from within.”

“I think Ikea needs a real challenge from a global competitor in order to better itself. As we all know, lack of competition can be a powerful sleeping pill.” Anders Dahlvig

“The founder’s own ability to embody the company motto, his frugal habits, and his notorious inclination to travel standard class even as a billionaire have contributed to an aura of legend and progress, but also of modesty and ordinary humanity.” Bertil Torekull

Not allowing himself to be arrogant, Kamprad puts himself last in line for food at certain functions, although others urge him to go first. He simply can’t.” Bertil Torekull

“The tales of the simplicity and thrift of the billionaire are more than just myths - they are reality. His total lack of external finery, grand clothes and habits, smart watches, or luxury car have become so much a part of the image of himself and the company.” Bertil Torekull

“Kamprad is always the same. Never boast, always show humility, take nothing for granted, always think about and prepare for bad times ahead, never let anything go to your head - deep down in the marrow of his bones is the conviction that success is the worst enemy of success.” Bertil Torekull

Keep it Simple

Keep it simple! Complicated systems and rules are a form of paralysis.” Ingvar Kamprad

Simplicity is a fine tradition among us. Simple routines mean greater impact. Simplicity in our behaviour gives us strength. Simplicity and humbleness characterise us in our relations with each other, with our suppliers and with our customers.” Ingvar Kamprad

Consistency

“Another important factor for Ikea's success that at first glance may seem to be in conflict with differentiation is consistency. Companies frequently change the core components of their business such as their range or their target customer groups. This may, of course, be necessary when you are in trouble, but it does not help in building a strong brand identity.“ Anders Dahlvig

Local Decision Making

Make decisions on a local level wherever possible.” Ingvar Kamprad

“Ikea’s philosophy has been to recruit and invest in local people.” Anders Dahlvig

Local responsibility is always important. In the retail world, store management has an enormous impact on performance. The difference between a good and a bad store manager can mean a difference in store profitability of 100 percent or more. Good people will stay motivated in the stores if they feel that they are fully in charge of their operations.” Anders Dahlvig

All business is local, they say.” Ingvar Kamprad

Small Teams

“Don’t forget: a small team with a lot of decision-making power can deliver a knock-out punch to sluggish bureaucracy.” Ingvar Kamprad

Maintain Focus

Concentration – important to our success. The general who divides his resources will invariably be defeated. Even a multitalented athlete has problems. For us too, it is a matter of concentration – focusing our resources. We can never do everything, everywhere, all at the same time. Our range cannot be allowed to overflow. We will never be able to satisfy all tastes anyway. We must concentrate on our own profile. We can never promote the whole of our range at once. We must concentrate. We cannot conquer every market at once. We must concentrate for maximum impact, often with small means.” Ingvar Kamprad

IKEA Catalogue - 1972 [source: IKEA Museum]

“In 2010, Ikea stores had more than 600 million visitors. Almost anything could probably be put into the stores and it would sell well, at least initially. And there have been many proposals to add products to the company's mix. However, the company has not let itself be tempted to stray off track; only home furnishing products are allowed into the stores. This is the area Ikea knows well and where it can create competitive prices. This way the company stays focused on delivering on its vision and business idea and maintains a clear brand profile.” Anders Dahlvig

“Ikea is better at building long-term advantages and creating stronger growth when prioritising and focusing on fewer areas. History has shown many times that this strategy pays off.” Anders Dahlvig

Continuous Improvement

Most things still remain to be done. A glorious future! The feeling of having finished something is an effective sleeping pill. A person who retires feeling that he has done his bit will quickly wither away. A company which feels that it has reached its goal will quickly stagnate and lose its vitality. Happiness is not reaching your goal. Happiness is being on the way. It is our wonderful fate to be just at the beginning. In all areas. We will move ahead only by constantly asking ourselves how what we are doing today can be done better tomorrow. The positive joy of discovery must be our inspiration in the future too.” Ingvar Kamprad

We have already found satisfactory solutions for most of what we have to do, But that doesn’t stop us questioning every single one of our production methods and techniques, nor constantly asking ourselves: “Why?”, “Why not?”, or “Is there another way of doing this?” Ingvar Kamprad

“We have already learned that success can be a dangerous thing. It can easily lead to stagnation and death. Once we’ve accomplished one thing, we need to remember that there is still plenty left to do.” Ingvar Kamprad

Change

Dynamism has to live on, the company has to change all the time, be supplied with new cells or die.” Ingvar Kamprad

Customer Psychology

“Ikea integrates the customer even into the sales process. I think that when customers feel that they are in charge of an activity, they often perceive it as better service even if it means more work for them.” Anders Dahlvig

The restaurants are viewed as part of the communication mix rather than as a profit centre. This is one of the secrets to the very low prices in the restaurants and food shops. The restaurants are there to sell more home furnishings by encouraging people to remain in the store for a longer time.” Anders Dahlvig

History of IKEA logos [Source: IKEA Museum]

“By providing a children’s ballroom, a restaurant, and different family activities, Ikea tries to create something more than just another shop - the company offers the family a fun day out.” Anders Dahlvig

“The bistro is situated beyond the exit checkout. Sometimes called ‘the calming-down department’ - when the customer has paid up after a wearying trip around the store and is exhausted, he or she is offered something that ‘makes up for it all,’ a cup of coffee and an almond cake, for instance, or a hotdog, for next to nothing.” Bertil Torekull

No Master Plan

The company’s growth was not strictly planned but proceeded by taking advantage of opportunities as they presented themselves.” Anders Dahlvig

“In the early days of simple operations, improvisations, times of joy and sudden impulses we were feeling our way along, failing, trying again, and succeeding.” Ingvar Kamprad

Tailwind

“In thirty years, employment in agriculture was reduced by 75 percent, and the suburbs grew as if sprouting out of the ground outside cities. During the first twenty years after the end of the war, one million new apartments were built… townspeople need to furnish their homes as cheaply as possible.” Bertil Torekull

A Family Culture

“Kamprad quite literally sees his company as a kind of family and himself as the father.” Bertil Torekull

The firm as family became Ingvar’s greatest pride. In the name of family, the Ikea spirit was created... At heart he regards his employees as children, siblings, and other relatives, although their numbers now are approaching forty thousand.” Bertil Torekull

“When Kamrpad speaks of IKEA, the phrases together, family, belong to each other, and fellowship arise again and again. They are never missing. IKEA is first and foremost a family.” Bertil Torekull

Environmental Considerations

“Not only is maintaining environmental standards a cost (and, as such, a potential threat to profitability and shareholder value), but in fact environmental work can contribute to increased profitability, more motivated workers, and a long-term strengthened position in a market. A strong environmental stand, in other words, represents a potential market advantage.” Anders Dahlvig

“In most cases, what is good for the environment means using fewer resources; using fewer resources most often results in lower costs, which Ikea has been able to pass along to our customers.” Anders Dahlvig

Unconventional

Daring to be different is one of the most important criteria behind the IKEA success. It’s the thinking behind some of the most significant aspects of our business idea. Here are some examples: while other furniture retailers were selling manufacturers’ designs we started to make our own designs. While furniture dealers set up shop in the centre of town, IKEA was building large stores out of town. While others turned to furniture factories to help them make tables, IKEA got them made by door manufacturers. Whereas others sell their furniture assembled, IKEA lets customers assemble it themselves.” Ingvar Kamprad

“By always asking why we are doing this or that, we can find new paths. By refusing to accept a pattern simply because it is well established, we make progress. We dare to do things differently! Not just in large matters, but in solving small everyday problems too. It is no coincidence that our buyers go to a window factory for table legs and a shirt factory for cushions. It is quite simply the answer to the question ‘why?’” Ingvar Kamprad

The Ikea mantra is that people have more time than money. In other words, the company rewards its customers for their involvement in the distribution of the company's products. The more your customers do, the less they pay. The entire sales system is based on integrating the customer in the distribution process. The customers not only choose, pick, and pay for the products they want, they transport and assemble these products themselves. By using this system, Ikea can keeps its costs low and thus reduce its prices even more.” Anders Dahlvig

“The steered customer flow is one important principle of the store.” Anders Dahlvig

Self-service is now Ikea’s selling model and has remained so. Self-service, numerous checkouts in the exit area, and a decrease in order sales provided a formidable boost to profitability and turnover. The customer took over what was perhaps the weightiest element in all furniture sales: deliver and unpacking.” Bertil Torekull

Win-Win

Nursing the supplier is one of Kamprad’s hobbyhorse principles - one he still imparts to his staff.” Bertil Torekull

It never pays to work negatively.” Ingvar Kamprad

“As I often say: the best deal is when neither buyer nor seller lose, but both gain.” Ingvar Kamprad

Own the Property

“When making a new store investment decision, you can be sure that land prices will never be cheaper in the future. You can be equally sure that getting a retail license will never get easier. I think it is wise to buy as much land as you possibly can and build bigger (with a retail license) than you initially think you need to in order to ensure flexibility for the future.” Anders Dahlvig

Owning the property perhaps slows the pace of growth, but provides security. No landlord can come in ten years’ time and raise the rent by 20 percent.” Ingvar Kamprad

Fanatics

“Most of the job remains to be done. Let us continue to be a group of positive fanatics who stubbornly and persistently refuse to accept the impossible, the negative. What we want to do, we can do and will do together. A glorious future!” Ingvar Kamprad

IKEA catalogue 1968 [Source:IKEA Museum]

A demon in me says I have so much to do … I am never satisfied. Something tells me what I’m doing at the moment has to be done better tomorrow.” Ingvar Kamprad

Ingvar loves it, always wants to lie as close to it as possible, and never tires of improving it, never wants to go home from work… The day he is free of IKEA, life for him will no longer be worth living.” Bertil Torekull

I would hardly wish for the next generation to be as tied to their work as I am.” Ingvar Kamprad

Private Ownership & Founder

“Ikea is not a listed company and can work from a more long-term perspective.” Anders Dahlvig

“The most likely scenario when entering most emerging markets is many years of low or no profitability and a high level of risk before you can harvest. This is probably less appealing to investors and management in many publicly owned companies who are looking for superior returns in the shorter term.” Anders Dahlvig

“I see many advantages of strong owner control. In such companies, it's more likely that the business will have a longer-term perspective and be willing to take more risks.” Anders Dahlvig

The existence of a present, dedicated, and knowledgeable founder and owner is a considerable advantage. The founder is crucial to establishing the strong heritage and values that give the company a soul by which loyalty and motivation among the employees can more easily be created. No employed CEO will stay long enough to be able to take on that role.” Anders Dahlvig

“Since Ikea is a private company, it need not concern itself with maximizing shareholder value in the short term. This policy gives Ikea greater security and the ability to control its own destiny.” Anders Dahlvig

“There is very little pressure to pay dividends to the owner (the Ikea Foundation) if the capital is needed to expand the business. For me as CEO, for our management, and for our employees, it was always very comforting to know that the profits stayed within the firm and were reinvested into the business.” Anders Dahlvig

“Today everyone has been converted to the conviction that going public would do more harm than good to IKEA in the long run. The perils of quotation on the stock exchange are exposure to the media and demands for constantly increased profit and expansion, regardless of the business cycle of competition and vision. Public companies like to distribute one-third of their annual profit to their shareholders, money that disappears out of the companies and works against building up reserves, something IKEA needs in order ‘to take bold decisions.’” Bertil Torekull

“North American sales director, Kent Nordin, comments, ‘No stock exchange company would ever have accepted the weak development we reported in the beginning [when entering the US]. But since long-range timing and patience is an IKEA credo, we had time to rethink and build a partly new base for survival.” Bertil Torekull

“It would take 22 years before IKEA North America could report that all the region’s twenty stores were in the black.” Bertil Torekull

Summary

Ingvar Kamprad wasn't the first to bring luxury to the masses. He followed in the footsteps of Vanderbilt (steamships), Ford (automobiles), Hershey (chocolates), and McDonalds (eating out). Since Ikea's creation, Southwest Airlines have democratized the skies and Zara and Uniqlo have done the same in fashion.

Ikea's business model has proven to be a formidable force in the furniture industry, democratizing luxury by providing access to high-quality, stylish furniture at an affordable price. With its ability to overcome challenges, utilize and share economies of scale, and maintain a long-term focus, Ikea serves as a valuable guide for unconventional success. The insights of Ingvar Kamprad, Bertil Torekul, and Anders Dahlvig provide valuable lessons for aspiring entrepreneurs and investors.

So the next time you're putting together a bookshelf with an Allen key, remember the man who made it all possible and give a nod to the furniture king, Ingvar Kamprad.









Sources:
The Ikea Edge: Building Global Growth and Social Good at the World's Most Iconic Home Store,’ Anthony D. Fitzgerald, Kogan Page, 2020.

Leading by Design: The Ikea Story,’ Ingvar Kamprad and Bertil Torekull,’ HarperBusiness, 1999.

Testament of a Furniture Dealer,’ Ingvar Kamprad, IKEA AB, 1976.



Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest
Visit the
Blog Archive



TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER



























 

















































































Learning from Sun Tire’s Dick Erickson

Dick Erickson was impressed as he entered the sixth Les Schwab Tires store of the day. He was struck by the bustling activity and immaculate presentation. The modern stores were open early and everything, from the workshops and restrooms to the well-groomed and friendly staff, was spotless. The customers were all smiles. Les Schwab Tires, a tire business in the west, was known for earning margins more than double the industry average, sparking Erickson's curiosity. That day, he was determined to uncover the secret behind their success.

Charlie Munger, one of the world's most accomplished investors, has shared valuable lessons on the importance of curiosity, the power of incentives, and the value of emulating successful strategies. Erickson, the founder of Sun Tires, exemplified these principles.

Erickson spent that day visiting Les Schwab Tires closely observing and studying the methods and identifying key strategies to implement in his own business. Like other successful business leaders, such as Sam Walton, Jeff Bezos, and Jim Sinegal, Erickson understood the value of emulating successful strategies and was not hesitant to adopt them in his own business. So much so, that over the next two decades, he made an annual pilgrimage to the Les Schwab Tires stores, returning consistently with new and innovative ideas to enhance Sun Tires' operations and performance.

One key strategy he identified was Les Schwab's defined profit-sharing plan, which he implemented at Sun Tires and found to be highly effective. This unique incentive structure is at the top of the list of strategies recommended by Charlie Munger for studying incentives.

In addition to implementing a profit-sharing plan, Erickson ran each store as a separate profit and loss centre and implemented the practice of sharing weekly store performance metrics to drive internal competition, which is a common strategy among successful companies. However, what sets Sun Tires apart is the concept of "Specialized Work Units" for the business units that provided support functions. Erickson benchmarked industry norms to establish cost targets based on a percentage of revenues and then incentivized staff to support the revenue-driving functions and minimize costs, to maximize their take-home pay. This strategy fostered employee unity, decreased dependence on middle management, and removed bureaucracy.

The human capital practices of employee empowerment and incentives have been instrumental in driving Sun Tires' success in a highly competitive industry. This approach is a unique way to build a successful business, and more information on how these concepts were implemented at Sun Tires can be found in Dick Erickson and Danny Murphy's excellent book, ‘How the Rubber Meets the Road.’

I’ve included some of my favourite extracts from the book below.

Tone at the Top

“In any leadership role, if the leader is not walking his or her talk, the follower or the subordinate will become sceptical of what the leader is saying. You must be a living example of what you’re telling people.”

“Good customer service isn’t magic. The focus on customer service must come from the top down in any organisation.”

Hiring Policies and the Spirit of Service

“When I was hiring people for any form of customer service, I was always trying to detect whether they had the spirit of service in them.”

“I’ve seen people lose control of their payroll, thinking that if they hired in advance to prepare for an increase in business, the customers would show up. That’s not necessarily so. Sun Tire hire people as they were needed, and I recommend that approach to others.”

Copy Ideas

Need a game plan? Copy one. You can’t copy patented devices or processes, copyrighted information, or trademarks. On the other hand, you can observe the way a successful business operates and incorporate some of what they do in your plan.”

Copying someone else’s successful plan can be very efficient way to build a business. However many entrepreneurs have a problem with copying a game plan. They have their own strong opinions about how to do things. They’d prefer to make their own mistakes and learn as they move forward.”

“What I’ve figured out in business has been by watching successful people and imitating them.”

Exceed Customer Expectations

“Start with a game plan that you know will exceed customers’ wants and needs.”

Exceeding customers’ wants and needs should always be the top priority.”

Excellent customer service leads to longevity in business. When customers know that your company is going to solve their problems, they will keep coming back. He will tell their friends about your company. That leads to growth. Excellent customer service also gives employees something to take pride in.”

Treating customers in ways that build trust is one way to beat the competition.”

“When you work in customer service, you must stay upbeat no matter what’s going on in your personal life.”

“Tires are a commodity. We had plenty of competition that sold and serviced similar products. Tire stores usually had three ways to compete: low price , association with name brands (Michelin, Goodyear, Firestone), and customer service. It was like a three-legged stool which must have all three legs balanced to function well. Most tire stores focused on brand names and competitive prices. Customer service was last on the list and there were only few competitors working in that direction. There were several reasons:

  • Good service is hard to perform consistently.

  • Marketing good service is also a challenge.

  • Training blue-collar workers to focus on customer service and perform to customers' satisfaction isn't easy.

Since most tire stores were concentrating on name brands and competitive prices, customer service appeared to be the best way to set Sun Tire apart. We sold name brands and made tires available at competitive prices, just like most of the other stores. If customers wanted Michelins, we had them. If customers wanted competitive prices, we had something for them. However, I saw customer service as the best way to win at the tire game. It wasn’t just a business strategy though, I wanted customers to be happy.”

Word-of-Mouth Advertising

Excellent service is the key to developing loyalty from customers and clients. Excellent service is also the best way to turn customers into members of your booster club. It’s a well know fact that the most effective advertising isn’t advertising in the traditional sense at all. The best advertising is by word-of-mouth, someone telling a friend how great it was to do business with an organisation. When people get truly excellent service, they tell their friends about it because they know that their friends like excellent service as much they themselves do.”

Appearances

“Whether your operation involves showrooms, waiting rooms, dining rooms, or meeting rooms, the cleanliness and neatness of the facilities are evidence of your attitude towards customer service. Customer areas should always be neat and clean. Work areas should also be neat, and as much as possible, clean. In the tire business, you can’t expect the work areas to be sparkling clean like a hospital. Still, even in work areas that are hard to keep clean, everything should look neat.”

Reward and Empower Employees

“Employees should be given the opportunity to earn the best compensation in the industry.”

There’s value to empowering employees. When a customer came back with some problem, the manager could take care of it up to $500. For problems up to that level, they didn’t have to get an approval from a superior. By allowing employees to make decisions at levels they are capable of, the need for supervision is reduced and the customer gets taken care of more quickly. A positive by-product is that employees feel engaged and empowered and that gives them positive feeling about their work.”

When profit sharing is substantial, most employees do their best to improve profitability. Since other organisations didn’t have anything like Sun Tire’s program, it gave us an edge in terms of recruiting and retention.”

Sensible Growth

“Due to ego, some business owners pursue growth for the sake of growth. Growing at a moderate pace is sometimes better than trying to grow too quickly. A Sun Tire manager once remarked to me that he didn’t understand why we didn’t have fifty stores. I explained that good managers are the key to growth, and I believed in having a manager ready for any new store.”

Expect Tough Times, Learn from Them

There are going to be tough times in every business. The important thing is to learn from them, make appropriate changes, and be prepared to do better next time.”

Humility

I never got caught up in the expensive trapping of success. I didn’t get a second home, or a luxury car, or an Armani suit.”

A good mentor will share with you what he thinks you need to hear, not necessarily what you want to hear.”

Complacency

“I’m convinced that complacency can absolutely destroy a company. If I ever become complacent, it didn’t last long. I’ve been consistent about looking for better ways to get things done.”

Transparency and Internal Competition

The ‘Iron Man Report’ was a weekly report to provide transparency about how each store was performing compared to the other stores. I started with twelve items, but one of my mentors told me that was too many. People can’t concentrate on more than a handful of things at the same time. When the Iron Man Report came out, it was bragging rights to the achievers. The tire business is competitive, and I always wanted managers who liked to compete. The Iron Man Report provided an opportunity to compete within the company. Sharing the reports gave each store a picture of how they stacked up with the other stores. Nobody wanted to be on the bottom month after month.”

It’s particularly important for a profit-sharing plan to be defined and transparent. That way, employees can see and understand how the amounts are calculated.”

Store Location

“When people talk about getting a great deal on a secondary location, I shake my head. For retail, you must have a good primary location.”

Develop Trust

Trust reduces the cost of doing business. When more trust is placed in workers, less management oversight is needed. Lower management expenses translates into a better bottom line. Trust and honesty are like brother and sister. Trustworthy employees do not steal from the firm. Trust among team members fosters efficiency.”

Train Staff

Train, train, train. Employees should continually receive the training they need to be successful in their jobs.”

Community Engagement

“It’s important you support whatever community you are in with your time and money. Business owners need the support of their communities. In turn, they should find ways to give back to their communities.”

Merit-based Competition

Some companies have non-compete clauses in their employment contracts. Sun Tire never did. I always thought that if someone felt like he or she could do better elsewhere, he or she ought to be free to move on.”

Profit Share Program / Seperate Profit & Loss

“In many companies that have profit-sharing, the profits are calculated at the end of the year. Then a percentage of the profits are distributed to employees based on salary and/or position. In many organisations, the numbers are mysterious to anyone outside of upper management or the accounting department. At Sun Tire, we did things differently. Here are some of the things we wanted in a profit-sharing program.

  • Every employee would get a fair shot at earning a substantial amount in addition to his or her salary. The amount would be based on the productivity of his or her store or department in the company. Your position and your time in the company would define your bonus program

  • A program that would keep tire changers and mechanics, our front-line employees, engaged and motivated throughout the year.

  • Each employee would have a retirement account paid for out of company profits.

  • Profits would be transparent to all employees. Profits from each store or department were recorded and placed into a trust account.

To measure the profit coming in from a store is straightforward. Each store had a Profit and Loss (P&L) ledger. Subtract the expenses from the revenues and you have your profit amount. End-of-year profit-sharing checks were paid out of the trust to managers. Tire changers and mechanics received a monthly bonus based on the profits of the stores they were in.”

‘Specialised-Work-Units’

We had other departments Administration, Warehouse Operations, and our Call Center which were important contributors to the company's growth and success. However, they didn't generate revenue. How could a bookkeeper or warehouse workers be rewarded for their valuable contributions to the profit-ability of the company? This was one challenging part of the plan.

We developed what I referred to as Specialised Work Units (SWUs). These included Administration and Warehouse Operations. Another one for the Call Center was in development at the time Sun Tire was sold. For profit-sharing to work for the whole organisation, there had to be a customised P&L ledger for each of the SWUs as well as the stores.

How did I come up with an ‘income’ figure for the Administration Department? I discovered that administrative costs throughout the tire industry were three to four percent of revenue. That's the percentage an owner of a tire business could expect to pay out for administration. For example, a tire company with annual revenues of ten million dollars would have about $300,000 to $400,000 in annual expenses for administration. I used three percent to develop a baseline figure for income for Sun Tire's Administration Department.

In the Sun Tire Defined Profit-sharing plan, the owner would split the difference between the hypothetical $300,000 and the actual expenses for Administration. If the Administration Department, which consisted of three employees, reduced their costs by $100,000, I would split that amount with the department. That would equal $50,000 into the trust for Administration. Within the department, there was a formula for dividing up the payout at the end of the year. Obviously, the employee who headed the department got a larger percentage than her subordinates.

With this method of profit-sharing in place, employees were engaged and highly motivated to work efficiently. The game wasn't just to punch in your hours on a timecard and get a check every week. At the end of the day in the stores, when the tire changers and mechanics asked their managers how the store had done for the day, they were sincerely interested. Being part of an SWU produced a sense of ownership for employees. The SWUs also had a degree of autonomy so that they could do what they needed to do to stay productive and efficient as a unit. At Sun Tire, The Administration Department, The Warehouse, and The Call Center all worked for and supported the stores. They had an interest in the continuing profitable growth of the stores.

When I first developed this plan for Administration, my outside accountant told me that nobody else he knew of was doing anything like it. There were people whose opinions I respected who told me I was being foolish to put a plan like that in place. I went ahead, and the program worked. The Administration Department reduced their expenses from the industry average of three to four percent down to 1.75 percent.

The Administration Department was very efficient. I know that similar companies had as many as six employees in Administration compared to our three. Also, with weekly store performance reports and weekly paychecks plus monthly profit-sharing checks for many employees, our Administration Department was doing more than the departments in similar organisations.”

Ownership Mentality

Since our employees were thinking more like managers, there was no need for a layer of middle management to oversee them. They wanted their units to be productive and efficient because they stood to reap substantial rewards for their efforts. The more they saved for the company, the larger their share of the profits would be. So, when a copy machine started getting clunky, our employees were more inclined to try to get another year out of it rather than requesting a new one. And when they got a new one, they might decide they didn't need all the latest features. At some point, it appeared to me that we needed to add an employee to the Administration Department. Our office manager said the department could continue to get all the work done without adding another employee. Another employee would have been one more expense on the P&L ledger and one more person to split the profit-sharing with. As long as the department was efficient and effective, I learned to keep my mouth shut about adding another employee.”

Another benefit of defined profit-sharing was reduced shrinkage. If a tire changer sees thievery that results in a lower profit-sharing check, he's going to take an interest in that. I remember one mechanic who asked me how the profit-sharing program worked. After I answered his questions, he told me about a manager who was stealing. If the profit-sharing had been too low, that employee might have taken less of an interest.”

“Some organisations put in cameras to fight shrinkage. I put in a defined profit-sharing program and I think it worked better than cameras.”

Summary

The practice of emulating successful strategies and models employed by other businesses has been a prevalent tactic in the creation of highly successful companies throughout history. Charlie Munger has acknowledged the utilization of this approach in the development of Berkshire Hathaway, stating that "All Berkshire Hathaway does is copy the right people."

The importance of having a strong and capable team, particularly in the customer service industry, has been a recurrent topic of discussion. Herb Kelleher, the founder of Southwest Airlines, has noted that the significance of individuals and their attitudes cannot be overstated in the customer service business. Service that exceeds customer expectations is a distinct competitive advantage, as it drives customer loyalty and fosters positive word-of-mouth advertising for the business. This is often achieved when employees are empowered, respected, trusted, and rewarded for their efforts.

It is noteworthy that the three tire businesses we’ve covered, which have generated results that are the envy of the industry, possess many similar characteristics. The ‘confederation of partnerships’ model is a particularly powerful business model that can lead to attractive long-term returns when executed effectively.


Source:How the Rubber Meets the Road,’ Dick Erickson and Danny Murphy, 2020.

Further Reading:
Learning from National Tire’s Bruce Halle,’ Investment Masters Class 2023.
‘Learning from Les Schwab,’ Investment Masters Class, 2018.

Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
Visit the
Blog Archive


TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER

Learning from Discount Tire's Bruce Halle

Few companies can boast of a track record of annual revenue growth for fifty consecutive years. One such company is Discount Tire Company, America's Number One Tire retailer. Starting small, with an emphasis on customer service and a decentralized partnership model, Discount Tire has achieved extraordinary success in a highly competitive and unremarkable industry.

By empowering employees through profit-sharing and delegation, Discount Tire’s founder, Bruce Halle, fostered a self-motivated culture of success. By harnessing Robert Cialdini’s principle of ‘reciprocation’, Discount Tire attracted loyal customers through complimentary tire services, driving repeat business while leveraging the powerful marketing tool of word-of-mouth advertising.

The book ‘Six Tires, No Plan’ by Michael Rosenbaum tells the story of Discount Tire’s remarkable success. Success which has come through a combination of qualitative factors, many evident in the other great and enduring businesses we’ve studied; valuing and respecting employees, sharing profits with staff, hiring the right people, exceeding customer expectations, delegating authority to those closest to the customers, fostering a culture of innovation by encouraging ideas from all employees, promoting from within, maintaining focus and managing growth responsibly.

“Over more than fifty years of operations, the tire retailer has never had a down year for sales and has never had a layoff. In 2011, Discount Tire recorded more than $3 billion in revenue and ended the year with more than 820 locations.” Michael Rosenbaum

This blog post explores those strategies and philosophies gleaned from the book that have made Discount Tire such a phenomenal success.

Simple Model

“Discount Tire’s model was very simple: offer low priced products, convince customers they were getting a deal, give them surprising benefits like free snow tire mounting or clean bathrooms and try to build positive word of mouth.”

Competitive Advantages

“A customer might appreciate the deal he got on a set of tires, but customers didn’t know one tire from another. What they did recognise was courtesy, friendliness and a clean store, all of which would become touchstones of the company.”

“Discount Tire has succeeded, in part, by exceeding the generally low expectations that both customers and employees might have about the tire business. Customers don’t expect quick turnaround, clean bathrooms or free repairs. New employees don’t expect a lucrative career, team membership and a company that worries about their families.”

“Much of Bruce Halle’s success flows from his retail focus – each store is uniquely important, each customer is uniquely valuable and each employee is a priceless individual. He never talks to the tire techs about tires, focusing instead on their lives and dreams, families and school.”

We are in the people business, and we just happen to be selling tyres. We haven’t just adopted this idea as a catchphrase or as part of our vision statement. We live this way. We are truly interested in the happiness of our customers and our people. I train my new hires to take action if they ever meet an unhappy customer. Not just to emphasize, but to take action.”

"A tire is a commodity. You can get one elsewhere. The differentiator is the people. By having people with great attitudes, you make the difference for Discount Tire. We hire people with the right personality and the right attitude. We can always teach them how to change tires. People do business with people they like. Hire, motivate and reward the people that others will like and, no matter what the product, the probability of success rises sharply.”

“Discount Tires success depends on having the right people on the team.”

Accept Mistakes & Learn

“Bruce Halle made as many mistakes as anyone else along the way, but he did two things that most people fail to do: he learned from his mistakes and he made it a practice to blame nobody but himself when things went awry.”

Servant Leadership & A Family Culture

“Although Bruce Halle had no leadership role as he left college, his style of servant leadership was already embedded in his DNA. As a company owner, he would see his employees as extended family to be protected. In turn, he would expect those he protected to look out for others.”

Reciprocation & Valuing Employees

“From the start, Bruce Halle wanted his employees to be very happy. While he cannot recall a time when he analysed the connection between happy employees and good customer service. Halle recognised the strength between the two. Customers who are treated rudely don’t return. Employees who are miserable at work are less likely to treat their customers well. Therefore, he couldn’t keep customers happy unless he made his employees happy first.”

“Bruce Halle’s philosophy is focused - not exclusively - but focused - on what is good for his people and his company.”

“Halle seldom talks about business, preferring to talk to individuals about their lives, families and interests. Halle sees his success as tied to the success of each individual within the organisation.”

Halle also provides a solid array of employee benefits and frequent gifts as a way of saying thank-you for their commitment.”

“Because the individual employee is the ‘secret sauce’ in Discount Tire’s success, the company is built around the worker more than it is designed around the customer. Hire the wrong people and you’ll find that you can’t beat them hard enough to make them treat customers well. Hire the right people and no beatings are necessary.”

“We’re in business to make money, but the way you let Mr.Halle down isn’t by not selling tires, but by not taking care of the people.”

Happy employees make happy customers, but happy customers don’t always make for happy employees. So we need to find a way for employees to believe in what they do. It’s in our mission statement to be the best and to care for and cultivate our people. When we show people how much we care, that’s where the magic happens and they become passionate about what they’re doing.

Employee Turnover

“The turnover rate is more than 80 percent for part-timers, reflecting the rigors of tire changing, but turnover drops to a miniscule 2 percent for store managers.”

Exceed Customer Expectations

"Worry about the customer first and the spreadsheet last."

It’s not so much that we’re selling tires but a matter of making friends over time. You want repeat customers, people who refer us to family, friends, co-workers .. we want to make them customers for life.”

“The culture of the company is very, very simple. Bruce Halle said, ‘Respect your fellow employees. Look after each other. Take your customers in as family.’ How are you going to treat your customers if you, in your mind, say, ‘That’s my dad coming in?’”

Halle opted to repair flat tires at no cost, reasoning that this type of pleasant surprise would endear Discount Tire to any customers who happened to walk in with a flat. The free service was popular with customers but seldom copied by competitors.”

Every transaction at every store involves tires or wheels, but what the company is selling is customer service. If customers aren’t happy, they won’t come back.”

“Discount Tire is built around ‘Who’, as in ‘Who will make us successful?’ Customers can buy tires anywhere, and most customers cannot tell the difference between one tire and another. For a company to excel in a commodity market, product differentiation is a non-starter. Improve the customer experience, however, and brand value explodes.”

“The process of tire sales is relatively straightforward, but Discount Tire’s approach includes extra steps to instil confidence and loyalty in the customer. Making sure to thank the customer and ask them to come back is common sense, at the least, but it’s often missed in retail stores.”

"We need the customer. The customer doesn't need us.”

“If you lose a customer over price, you have to buy them back later. It's better to give them the price to get them to stay in the first place.”

Discount Tire measures customer satisfaction with a net promoter index, which nets out the difference between customers who would recommend the company and those who would pan it. Only scores of 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale count as positives, and anything below 7 is a negative. Most companies average 5 to 10 percent, according to one study, and a net promoter index over 50 percent is considered solid. Discount Tire consistently scores at the 80 percent level.”

When a customer is dissatisfied, the store manager must address them personally. At 6.00 p.m. each night, every store manager receives an e-mail with the names of unhappy customers who need to be contacted within twenty-four hours. Ultimately, the managers will convert many of the unhappy customers into lifelong patrons simply by making a personal connection and offering to solve their problems. This is not rocket science or the stuff of MBA dissertations, but it is highly effective.”

Empowerment, Autonomy & Walking the Floor

“The fact is that we are empowered from day one to take care of any customer for whatever reason, to keep them safe and to gain a customer for life.”

Bruce Halle’s job is not to micromanage but to support and inspire. In fact, supporting and inspiring is the real reason for the site visits. Spending time in the stores, chatting with the workers, he works to bridge the distance that would naturally develop between a nineteen-year-old kid busting tires and the owner of eight hundred tire stores.”

Discount Tire gives its employees a wide circle of latitude and a small number of rules that allow no deviations. Steal from the company, abuse your employees, or mistreat customers, and the exit door is wide open.”

The corporate office doesn’t decide which products to promote at the store; that decision is left to the store managers as well.”

Bruce Halle was a management-by-exception type of leader, relying on his people to do the job they were hired to do and stepping in only when something was askew.”

“Another mistake Bruce Halle won’t make is overloading his store managers with mandates from the corporate office. Contrary to general business practice and theory, Discount Tire is built around its employee and the individual store. Stores are treated as independent operating businesses, each with a mission to delight the customer. Corporate meddling can get in the way of success as the store level and, by transference, the entire company.”

The guys and gals in the stores run the company. While the corporate purchasing team works regularly to obtain volume pricing or other breaks from manufacturers, the corporate office won’t tell its store managers which tires to push. The company will arrange promotions, but there is no mandate for any store to participate. “What do we know about what they sell in Lobbock, Texas, or what they should be selling in Lobbock, Texas? ‘We don’t, so we have no business telling them what they should sell. We’re not the customer. The people in the stores are serving the customer and driving our company forward, so we need to listen to them.”

Ideas

Idea are more powerful and supported when they percolate from the ground up, instead of coming down as pronouncements from on high. Rather than announcing strategies du jour from the home office, Discount Tire relies on interaction among store managers within regions and connections among the regional officers to develop and transmit good ideas.”

There is nothing wrong with stealing a good idea.”

Golden Rule

Bruce Halle’s philosophy is to treat people like you want to be treated.”

Ordinary People & Team Players

The prototypical backstory of a Discount Tire executive includes a lack of specific goals, average or lower-than-average grades and minimal expectations of the job or company. Most applicants are looking for nothing more than a steady paycheck and, maybe, a place to bide their time while they figure out what to do with their lives. In many respects, they look just like Bruce Halle.”

“The search for people with the right attitude led directly to the lost boys. The cadre of young men - and they are almost always men, joining the company often shared a certain lack of focus in life. What separated the keeps from the rest of the pack was a willingness to work hard and to find that focus as part of a team. The team is critical, because the team is bigger than the individual, and a person who believes in the team will often be committed to serving others - including both the company and its customers.”

Promote From Within

The company starts all its operating employees as part-time tire techs, the people who do most of the tire changing in the bays, or, rarely, as full-time assistant managers. Since Bruce Halle started the company in 1960, this practice has been a sacred promise at Discount Tire. Nobody gets the keys to a store without starting out in a lower level, busting tires. Just like Bruce T Halle. That consistent policy of promotion from within creates enormous loyalty among Halle’s employees. At the corporate office, every operating executive up to the CEO Tom Englert began his career in the back of a Discount Tire store.”

“We’re a promote-from-within company. Everybody knows that in this company you start at ground level. Look at all our vice presidents, our senior vice presidents, all the way up to Tom Englert, our CEO. They all started at the same place. We’ve been around fifty years and we’ve never had a layoff.”

“If I were to bring someone in at a high level without having worked in the stores, I may as well get in my care, drive around to the stores and slap every one of the guys in the face – because that’s literally what I’d have done to them. And I would never do that.”

Free Services

“Over time free services brought in paying customers, convincing Halle that free can be very profitable.”

“It’s all about earning the referral, about the word of mouth, and if you have to give away a tire to keep a customer happy, it will come back to you tenfold.”

“Bruce Halle needed a good gimmick to build his customer counts. As spring arrived, he offered to change snow tires at no cost. Drivers who came in to change their tires for free might be enticed to return when they needed new tires later. The tire-changing service proved to be a winner for Discount Tire, with customers lining up around the block to take advantage of the deal.”

"Nobody gets up in the morning and says, 'What a beautiful day. I think I'll go buy four tires.' They get up and say, 'I have to buy new tires.' It's like going to the dentist.” Because customers tend to view tire buying as a necessary evil, it's not too difficult to exceed their expectations. When Bruce Halle started changing snow tires at no charge, the lines extended around the block. Customers responded, as well, when he offered to repair flat tires at no charge and provided free tire inspections. While many financial analysts might consider such freebies unaffordable, Halle found the free services to be highly profitable, especially when the value of referrals is considered. For the cost of a free tire repair—usually less than $30—Discount Tire can acquire a lifelong customer. While the company might invest $50 to $100 in giving away a tire or two to a cash-strapped driver, that person will come back as a paying customer when he or she is back on firmer financial footing.”

Share Profits with Staff and Don’t Cap Earnings

Discount Tire Company has no franchises and no equity investors other than Bruce Halle. But Halle wants every employee to think of the store as his own – and treat both employees and customers accordingly. While employees don’t own title to the stores, they do earn the same kind of returns any minority partner might. In addition to base salary, they share in the earnings of the store: they get 10 percent of the first $200,000 in earnings and 20 percent of every dollar above that level. As would be the case with any other owner, there’s no cap to their earnings potential. The deal is simple. Bruce Halle personally scouts out the location of each store, and the company supplies the capital to buy or lease the property, build the store and provide inventory and equipment. The store manager is responsible for hiring, training, marketing, scheduling, customer service and cost control.”

No Commissions

“Halle didn’t want his people working on commissions. He knew from his own experience that commissions created the temptation for extra upselling. At Discount Tires, the most powerful calling card was savings. If customers had the sense they were being lured in by cheap prices, only to be pressured by commission salesmen, the company would suffer. Bait-and-switch marketing would not drive referrals or repeat business.”

‘Responsible Growth’

“With around eight hundred stores in operation, Discount Tire has the bench strength to open eighty to a hundred stores or more each year. But the company’s strategic plan includes a mandate to ‘grow responsibly,’ and the capital requirements are daunting. Instead, the company is targeting forty to fifty new stores per year . The management team has learned the lessons of companies, that, like armies, moved too far ahead of their supply lines. Bruce Halle and his team won’t grow as fast a possible because they are unwilling to spread capital or manpower across too broad a network.

Tailwind

“Sunbelt states offered substantial promise. Rising populations meant more than simply increased demand for replacement tires. New residents to any state might have no particular loyalty to more established retailers… The decades-long population shift into the Sunbelt states has been a major boon for Discount Tire.”

Headquarters

At the corporate office, the stores are recognised as the customers who need to be delighted by the home office, just as the buying public must be delighted by the stores.”

“’If you go out and spend an extra million dollars on something,, how many tires do the guys in the stores have to sell to pay for it?’ Bruce Halle asks. ‘We have to fight bureaucracy, fight it, because it’s like a disease that creeps in all by itself.” Bruce Halle might love the people who work for him at the corporate office, but he has a strong belief that oversized corporate staffs can drain the life from an organisation by taking too much control from the people in the stores. Worse, every dollar invested at headquarters is a dollar that can’t be spent on store expansion.”

In the stores, growth is applauded, but growing headcounts at corporate is discouraged whenever possible.”

At corporate headquarters, six executives are responsible for overseeing twenty-three regions. The job of management is to hire the right people, immerse them in the corporate culture and get out of the way.”

Store Location

“Pick the right [store] location, and it will support a large team over a period of decades. Pick the wrong location, and the people inside will suffer. ‘I can move the inventory and the equipment from a bad store, but I can’t move the store,’ Halle says simply, ‘It’s not a mistake that’s easy to correct’. While Halle has delegated most of the daily tasks of running the company, finding the right place for Discount Tire’s next store will always be the chairman’s realm.”

“Discount Tire will lease locations when absolutely essential, but the clear preference is to own, not rent. The company owns approximately 80 percent of the properties that house its stores, and with stores that remain in business twenty, thirty or more years, the long-term benefits are clear.”

Store Acquisitions

“Having built hundreds of stores, Bruce Halle has learned that there's much more to real estate than the oft-cited location, location, location. Buying an existing tire store, he says, is seldom the most inspired choice. "When you get somebody else's store, you are getting their reputation too," he warns. "You repaint the building and put a different sign on it, but a customer is driving down the street and sees that tire store and thinks, I had a hell of a bad experience there. I'll never go there again. He doesn't even know it's changed its name or ownership, so that hurts. When we pick up somebody else's store, it takes three times longer to make it profitable."

Focus

“Discount Tire sells tires and wheels but doesn't offer oil changes, alignments or general automotive services. By focusing on a limited number of services, the company can reduce customer wait times and build satisfaction. Training expense is reduced, inventory management is simplified, work scheduling is more predictable and units per man hour can be maximized. By servicing customers faster, the stores can service more customers per day with the same number of employees and work bays, which leverages the fixed investment in each store.”

Closed Sundays

Bruce Halle pays a price for keeping his stores closed on Sundays, one of the busier days for any retail business, but he wouldn’t short change his employees on one of the few benefits he allowed himself when he opened his first store.”

Fun

Fun was a critical ingredient for Bruce Halle from day one. If the workplace was fun, people would feel more like teammates, and teammates worked harder to make the entire team successful.”

Summary

Like many other great business founders, Bruce Halle realised that while he sold tires, he was really in the customer satisfaction business. He understood that you’ve got to give to get. His free services endeared customers to the business, provided a point of differentiation from his competitors, and harnessed the most powerful marketing tool of all: word-of-mouth advertising.

Halle placed a paramount emphasis on customer satisfaction, treating customers as friends and addressing any issues that arose promptly.

From day one, Halle structured his business for success. He was careful in choosing the right employees with the appropriate demeanor and he shared each store’s profits with the workers. Delegated responsibility and an uncapped earnings potential added to employees sense of ownership and ensured decision making and idea generation occurred at the point closest to the customer.

This structure enabled ordinary people to achieve extraordinary success - they were trusted, empowered and valued. As a result, a ‘confederation of partnerships’ emerged, resembling a collection of small, entrepreneurial entities. In the words of Peter Kaufman, this created ‘leaping emerging effects.'

These qualitative characteristics, which ultimately define the culture of Discount Tire, are primarily centred on people. Over five decades of positive returns attest to their importance. They can serve as useful markers for identifying potentially outstanding businesses in your own endeavours.


Further Reading:
http://sixtiresnoplan.com/

Learning from Les Schwab,’ Investment Masters Class. 2018.

Source: ‘Six Tires, No Plan - The Impossible Journey of the Most Inspirational Leader That (Almost) Nobody Knows,’ Michael Rosenbaum, 2012. GreenLeaf Press.

Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
Visit the
Blog Archive


Learning from James Dyson

When you look back in history at some of mankind’s greatest achievements, one of the things that stands out in almost every case is that those successes came with a lot of blood, sweat and tears and an incredible amount of persistence. Often what appeared on the surface to be an “overnight success’' actually took years to achieve. Henry Ford and his self-propelled vehicle, Walt Disney and his animated pictures, Alexander Bell and his telephone and even the Wright Brothers and their aeroplane; all were examples of people who failed many, many times before they eventually succeeded, often facing distressing financial hardship along the way.

But if you were one of these people and were inventing something that could be potentially momentous and change things forever, at what point would you give up after encountering multiple failures? After 10 attempts? 50? What about 1,000? You’d have to think you were on a road to nowhere if you had failed that many times. So how about 5,127 times? How does that grab you?

Incredibly, that’s the number of hand-made prototypes James Dyson built over a four year period before he finally achieved success with his cyclonic vacuum cleaner. Labouring through trial and error, Dyson overcame a brutal patent abuse, endless rejections from both venture capitalists and the world’s leading appliance manufacturers whilst managing an ever expanding overdraft he didn’t extinguish until the age of forty-eight. Contrast that with today, Sir James Dyson is the UK’s fourth richest resident with a net worth of c.US$9.7 billion.

Dyson struck on the idea of a cyclonic vacuum from his experience manufacturing his first product, the ‘Ballbarrow.’ Applying paint to the metal frame created havoc in the factory - excess waste and mess. Seeking a solution, Dyson asked around the trade and eventually arrived at a cyclonic separator. He recalled, ‘I found the centrifuge dust extraction principle of the cyclonic separator utterly fascinating.’

James Dyson’s recently published memoir, ‘James Dyson - Invention: A Life,’ is a tale of constant innovation, incredible challenges overcome and the deep resilience required to create one of today’s leading technology companies.

One of my favourite insights from the book relates to the opportunity set afforded Dyson by the vacuum industry’s incumbent players. Hamilton Helmer labelled this power ‘Counter-Positioning’ in his best-selling book on competitive strategy, ‘7 Powers.’ The opportunity arises when a newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent doesn’t mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business. In the case of vacuum cleaners, the incumbents were making billions selling replacement bags to their customers. Why create a product which puts at risk that perpetual revenue stream?

invention-9781982188429_xlg.jpg

If there’s one thing I’ve noticed about successful business founders, it’s that there is no straight line to success. Without perseverance and resilience beyond the scope of all but the rarest of people, these businesses would die on the vine. I’ve included some of my favourite extracts below.

Failure and ‘Trial & Error’

“This might sound boring and tedious to the outsider. I get that. But when you have set yourself an objective that, if reached, might pioneer a better solution to existing technologies and products, you become engaged, hooked and even one-track-minded. Folklore depicts invention as a flash of brilliance. That eureka moment! But it rarely is, I’m afraid. It is more about failure than ultimate success. I even thought about calling this book ‘James Dyson: Failure’, but was talked out of it because it might give the wrong impression.”

The failures began to excite me. ‘Wait a minute, that should have worked, now why didn’t it?’”

Research is about conducting experiments, accepting and even enjoying failures, but going on and on, following a theory garnered from observing the science. Invention is often more about endurance and patient observation than brainwaves.”

Learning by trail and error, or experimentation, can be exciting, the lessons learned deeply ingrained. Learning by failure is a remarkably good way of gaining knowledge. Failure is to be welcomed, rather than avoided. It should not be feared by the engineer or scientist or indeed by anyone else.”

Ballbarrow - Diedre Dyson with the first solo Invention [Source: Dyson]

“The Ballbarrow - my first consumer product, my first solo effort - was a failure but one from which I learned valuable lessons. There was a lesson about assigning patents, another about not having shareholders. I learned the importance of having absolute control of my company and not undervaluing it.”

“One of the really important principles I learned to apply was changing only one thing at a time to see what difference that one change made. People think that a breakthrough is arrived by a spark of brilliance or even a eureka thought in the bath. I wish it were for me. Eureka moments are very rare. More usually, you start off by testing a particular set-up, and by making one change at a time you start to understand what works and what fails. By that empirical means you begin the journey towards making the breakthrough, which usually happens in an unexpected way.”

“I worked on the [production] line for two weeks to understand how to make the vacuum cleaner more efficiently and have watched all of our lines ever since .. I learned which components were difficult to assemble and encouraged our engineers to visit lines frequently. Most importantly, this experience helped me look as all our subsequent products to understand where production inefficiencies fell.”

“Of the 5,127 prototypes I made in the coach house of the cyclone technology for my first vacuum cleaner, all but the very last one were failures. And yet, as well as painstakingly solving a problem, I was also going through a process of self-education and learning. Each failure taught me something and was a step towards a working model. I have been questioning things and learning every day ever since.

Learning by doing, Learning by trial and error. Learning by failing. These are all effective forms of education.”

“When I was trying, unsuccessfully, to raise capital to start my vacuum cleaner business, all the venture capitalists turned me down, with one even saying that they might consider the opportunity if I had someone heading up the company from the domestic appliance industry. This was at a time when that industry was vanishing from Britain because, taken as a whole, its products were uncompetitive.”

Life Lessons

Every day is a form of education.”

“It was playing games, however, that taught me the need to train hard and to understand teamwork and tactics. The planning of surprise tactics, and the ability to adapt to circumstance, are vital life lessons. These virtues are unlikely to be learned from academic life and certainly not from learning by rote.”

“Long-distance running taught me to overcome the pain barrier: when everyone else feels exhausted, that is the opportunity to accelerate, whatever the pain, and win the race. Stamina and determination along with creativity are needed in overcoming seemingly impossible difficulties in research and other life challenges.”

“Doing things with my hands, often as an autodidact and with an almost absence of fear, became second nature. Learning by making things was as important as learning by the academic route. Visceral experience is a powerful teacher. Perhaps we should pay more attention to this form of learning. Not everyone learns in the same way.”

Creativity & Invention

In order to stay ahead we need to focus increasingly on our creativity.”

“At Dyson, we don’t particularly value experience. Experience tells you what you ought to do and what you’d do best to avoid. It tells you how things should be done when we are much more interested in how things shouldn’t be done. If you want to pioneer and invent new technology you need to step into the unknown and, in that realm, experience can be a hindrance.”

“[You] need to listen to your customers, aiming to improve products wherever necessary and, if you are an inventor, simply for improvements sake. This is not to say we at Dyson ask our customers what they want and build it. That type of focus-group-led designing may work in the very short term, but not for long.”

“I still find myself saying and putting into practice some of the same things Jeremy Fry [an early mentor/employer] said and did when I worked for him half a century ago. As an inventor, engineer and entrepreneur, he believed in taking on young people with no experience because this way he employed those with curious, unsullied and open minds.”

The inventing mind knows instinctively that there are always further questions to be asked and new discoveries to be made.”

“The Land Rover, the Swiss Army penknife, the Citroen 2CV, the Bell 47 helicopter and Alec Issigoni’s Mini - what I liked so much about these machines - and my affection for them remains undimmed - is their ingenuity and the fact that the power of invention invested in them made for designs that re-imagined and revolutionised their market sectors and even created wholly new markets. And yet, for all their functionality, each is a highly individual product with a character and charm of its own. What is equally interesting is that these radical machines made use of pre-existing ideas and components.”

A design might be considered ahead of its time and, sometimes because of this, even ridiculous. The hugely successful Sony Walkman was dismissed when first launched because who could possibly want a tape recorder that couldn’t record. And it was received knowledge, until Volkswagen and, later, Honda crossed the Atlantic with the Beetle and the Accord that Americans were wedded resolutely to big cars.”

“The Sony Walkman is another fascinating success story because, at first, its design appeared to defy common sense. Priced at $150, the compact silver and blue Walkman wasn’t cheap, while within Sony it was controversial and brave because it was unable to record, and no one made a ‘tape recorder’ that wouldn’t do so before… With lightweight foam headphones and no function other than playback, the Walkman emerged. The press lampooned it. Even the name was ridiculous. The Japanese press was wrong, although the market hadn’t known it wanted a tiny personal stereo. When it saw the attractive little device, and heard it in action, it fell in love with it… By the mid-1980’s, the word had entered the Oxford English Dictionary. Sony’s Masura Ibuka - one of the Japanese company’s founders - hoped to sell 5,000 Walkmans a month. He sold 50,000 in the first two months. By the time production ended in Japan in 2010, more than 400 million had been sold worldwide.”

Without entrepreneurship, an inventor may not be able to bring their radical or revolutionary products to the marketplace or at least not under their own control. Without becoming an entrepreneur, they have to licence their technology, putting them at the mercy of other companies that may or may not have a long-term commitment to a particular new idea or way of thinking about the future.”

“The idea [for the cyclonic vacuum cleaner] had been in my head since welding up the giant metal cyclone for the Ballbarrow factory. Now it made increasing sense. Here was a field - the vacuum cleaner industry - where there has been no innovation for years, so the market ought to be ripe for something new. And, because houses need cleaning throughout the year, a vacuum cleaner is not, like my Ballbarrow, a seasonal product. It is also recession proof. Every household needs one. It seemed to tick all the boxes. In any case, I’d used one since childhood and knew from experience that there had to be a better vacuum cleaner.”

“If you believe you can achieve something - whether as a long distance runner or maker of a wholly new type of vacuum cleaner - then you have to give the project 100% of your creative energy. You have to believe that you’ll get there in the end. You need determination, patience and willpower.”

Bio-mimicry is clearly a powerful weapon in an engineer’s armoury.”

“It’s a part of the Dyson story that I made 5,127 prototypes to get a model I could set about licensing. This is indeed the exact number. Testing and making one change after another was time-consuming. This, though, was necessary as I needed to follow up and prove or disprove every theory I had. And, however frustrating, I refused to be defeated by failure. All of the 5,126 I rejected - 5,126 so-called failures - were part of the process of discovery and improvement before getting it right on the 5,127th time. Failure, as I had already begun to learn with my experience with the Ballbarrow business is very important. I find it important to repeat that we do, or certainly should, learn from our mistakes and we should be free to make them.”

Every judgement in science stands on the edge of error and is personal… I have long had great admiration for engineers like Alec Issigonis [designed the Mini] and Andrew Lefebvre of Citroen .. they questioned orthodoxy, experimented, took calculated risks, stood on the edge of error and got things right. And when they got there, they continued to ask questions.”

“One of the ways we made Dyson distinctive is by not allowing ourselves to rest on our laurels.”

“A jet engine spins at 15,000 rpm, a Formula 1 engine at 19,000 rpm and a conventional vacuum cleaner motor at 30,000 rpm. Why go very much faster? Although at the time we were neither designers nor manufacturers of electric motors, we wanted to come up with a breakthrough in their design, creating a quantum leap in performance: many times faster, much lighter and smaller, brushless for a longer life and no emissions, more electrically efficient and above all controllable for speed, power and consumption.. The turbine speed we initially aimed for was 120,000 rpm.. Today, Dyson pioneers the world’s smallest high-speed motors. These have enabled us to reinvent the vacuum cleaner again with a pioneering new Dyson format. They have also allowed us to improve products in wholly new areas.”

“People often ask if we would supply other companies with our motors. Although it might be profitable to do so, we supply no one other than ourselves. This is because I want Dyson engineers to be 100% focused on our next exciting motor development and not retrofitting our motors to someone else’s product.”

“With each new motor we aimed to double its power output and halve it’s weight.”

Dyson Supersonic™ Hair Dryer

“We had been experimenting for some time with blades of air and working with sophisticated computational fluid-dynamics models for a project that remains secret… We had accidentally developed a new form of hand dryer. What’s more it didn’t need a heater… It has a carbon footprint six times smaller than that of paper towels… Despite our inroads, the paper towel industry retains 90% of the hand-drying market, worth billions of dollars each year. The big players want to defend a highly lucrative status quo.”

As often happens, our observations during the development of the Dyson Airblade hand dryer led us to the principles used in other products, like our Air Multiplier fans and, in turn, to heaters, humidifiers and air purifiers.”

“For me, [the hairdryer] was another of those products, used frequently by hundreds of millions of people, stuck in a technological time warp. Existing hairdryers were heavy and uncomfortable to use.”

“Ever since the Industrial Revolution, inventions had tended to compound inventions.”

It is hard for other people to understand or get excited about an entirely new idea. This requires self-reliance and faith on part of the inventor. I can also see that it is hard for an outsider to understand the challenge and thrill of inventing new technology, designing and manufacturing the product then selling it to the world.”

“After the event, a revolutionary new idea can look so obvious - surely no one could possibly have doubted it? At their conception, though, new ideas are not blindingly obvious. They are fragile things in need of encouragement and nurturing against doubting Thomases, know-it-alls and so-called experts. Just as Frank Whittle discovered, it is easy for people to say ‘no,’ to dismiss new ideas and to be stick-in-the-muds, pessimists, or even cynics. It is much harder to see how something unexpected might be a success.”

We certainly have taken big risks, with the digital electric motors, the washing machine, the electric car and our research into solid-state batteries. Not all have been commercially successful. That is the point. By its very nature, pioneering will not always be successful, otherwise it would be all too easy. We don’t start these ventures with the inevitability of success - we are all to aware we may well fail.”

Obliquity

Inventors rarely set out to make money per se, and if they do theirs is more often than not a pipe dream.”

I didn’t work on those 5,127 vacuum cleaner prototypes or even set up Dyson to make money. I did it because I had a burning desire to do so. And as do my thousands of colleagues, I find inventing, researching, testing, designing and manufacturing both highly creative and deeply satisfying.”

Focus Groups & Experts

“Just before the launch of the Mini car, Austin Morris did indeed consult a focus group, and nobody wanted this tiny car with small wheels. So they cut the production lines down to one. When the public saw it on the street, they were most enthusiastic for it. Austin Morris never caught up with demand, missing out on serious profits.”

Screen Shot 2021-10-18 at 6.39.24 am.png

“The bestselling British car of all time is the Mini - If market research had ruled Alec Issigoni’s roost at BMC, it would never had existed… Alec’s view [was] that ‘market research is bunk’ and that one should ‘never copy the opposition.’”

I am cautious of experts .. Experts tend to be confident that they have all the answers and because of this trait, they can kill new ideas. But when you are trying to break new ground, you have no interest in getting stuck in engineering conventions or intellectual mud.”

“Venture capitalists proved to be no help. [Six] venture capitals turned me down.”

“I had been warned that at £200, or at least three times as expensive as most other vacuum cleaners, the DC01 would prove to be too expensive. It sold really well.”

“The marketing team, who I listened to, said to me, ‘If you make it £200 cheaper you will sell a lot more [Dyson washing machines],’ and I believed them. We made it £200 cheaper and sold exactly the same number at £899.99 as we had a £1,089 and ended up losing even more money. I had made a classic mistake. This might sound counter-intuitive, but I should have increased the price. The Contrarotator was not meant to be a low cost washing machine.”

Controversial: Dyson ‘clear’ bin

“Although there is no guarantee of success, disruptive ideas can revolutionise a company and its finances through intuition, imagination and risk-taking as opposed to market research, business plans and strategic investment.”

“Early on in our story, the [Dyson vacuum cleaner’s] clear bin was another ‘clear’ example of going our own way regardless. Trusting our own instincts, we decided to ignore the research and the retailers. Pete and I had been developing the vacuum cleaner and we loved seeing the dust and the dirt. We didn’t want to hide all the hard work the machine had done. Going against established ‘experts’ was a huge risk. No one could confirm that what we were doing was a good idea. Everyone, in fact, confirmed the reverse. The data were all against it. If, however, we had believed ‘the science’ and not trusted our instincts, we would have ended up following the path of dull conformity.”

Innovation, Constant Improvement & Change

“I greatly admire Soichiro Honda for his addiction to the continuous improvement of products. and Takeo Fujisawa. Their genius was to think against the grain while focusing on continuous improvement. The company [Honda] continues to invest a sizeable chunk of its income into R&D, aiming for constant improvement and innovation.”

“Rather like the way some sharks have to keep moving to stay alive, innovative engineering-led manufacturers need continuous innovation to stay competitive. Striving for new and better products is often what defines such companies. At Dyson, we never stand still. In a quarter of a century, we have gone from making a revolutionary vacuum cleaner to prototypes of a radical electric car. Invention tends to compound invention and companies need to be set up for this.”

“What was exciting is that, although our main focus was the vacuum cleaner, our thinking was that of a tech company. How else could we evolve cyclonic technology? What other uses could we put it to?

Investment in new technologies requires many leaps of faith and huge financial commitment over long periods.”

“I believe that it is critical to keep on improving and never to relax with a product that appears to be selling well. Permanently dissatisfied is how an engineer should feel.”

“Our product development process is now truly a twenty-four hours a day process.”

“What I can say is that if you came back to see what Dyson’s up to in five, ten, twenty or a hundred years from now, whether with our products or through our farms, things will be very different indeed. It’s all tremendously exciting and we should have cause for optimism.”

“Every day is an adventure and a response to the unexpected. Even if things appear to be in some kind of stasis, a company must move on. It has to get better, evolve and improve in order to survive. There is no greater danger than satisfaction.”

“What we do know is that companies always have to change to get better at what they do, plan to do and even dream of doing in the future. The adage that the only certainty is change is true, and this means not being afraid of change even if, for a company, it means dismantling what you have built in order to rebuild it stronger or killing your own successful product with a better one, as we did with our new format battery vacuum cleaners.”

Counter-Positioning

“Anyone watching me at work might reasonably have wondered why Electrolux and Hoover weren’t making and selling a vacuum cleaner like mine. With all their resources, surely they could have leaped ahead of me - one man and his dog, as it were, in a rural coach house - and cornered the market between them. There were though, at least three good reasons why they didn’t even think of pursuing a similar path to me. One, which went without saying, was that the ‘No Loss of Suction’ vacuum cleaner had yet to be invented. The second was that the vacuum cleaner bag replacement business was highly profitable. And the third, to my surprise, was that well established electrical goods companies seemed remarkably uninterested in new technology. With no outside challenges, they could afford to rest on their laurels. For the moment at least.”

“I went to see Electrolux, Hotpoint, Miele, Siemens, Bosch, AEG, Philips - the lot - and was rejected by every one of them. Although frustrating, what I did learn is that none of them was interested in doing something new and different. They were, as I had already understood, more interested in defending the vacuum cleaner bag market, worth more than $500 million in Europe alone at the time. Here, though was an opportunity. Might consumers be persuaded to stop spending so much on replacement bags, which, by the way, are made of spun plastic and are not biodegradable, and opt for a bag-less vacuum cleaner that offered constant suction instead? If so, I might stand a chance against these established companies.”

Multi-Disciplinary Approach

“I loved my time at the Royal College of Art not least because of its lively and inventive cross-disciplinary approach. Here, as I progressed, I realised that art and science, inventing and making, thinking and doing could be one and the same thing. I dared to dream that I could be an engineer, designer and manufacturer at one and the same time.”

Commerciality & The ‘Art of Selling’

Inventions, though, no matter how ingenious and exciting, are of little use unless they can be translated through engineering and design into products that stimulate or meet a need and can sell.”

“Even the most worthwhile and world changing inventions, from ballpoint pen to the Harrier Jump Jet, need to be a part of the process of making and selling to succeed.”

“Selling goes with manufacturing as wheels do with a bicycle. It is far more than flogging second-hand cars or contraband wristwatches. Products do not walk off shelves and into people’s homes, And when a product is entirely new, the art of selling is needed to explain it. What it is. How it works. Why you might need and want it.”

“Jeremy Fry taught me not to try to pressure people into buying but to ask them lots of questions about what they did, how they worked and what they might expect of a new product. Equally, I learned that most people don’t really know exactly what they want, or if they do it’s only from what they know, what is available or possible at the time. As Henry Ford said, famously if he asked American farmers what they wanted in terms of future transport, they would have answered ‘faster horses.’ You need to show them new possibilities, new ideas and new products and explain these as lucidly as possible. Dyson advertising focuses on how our products are engineered and how they work, rather than on gimmicks and snappy sales lines.”

Word of mouth and editorial remain the best way to tell people what you have done. It is far more believable than advertising and a real compliment when intelligent journalists want to go off and talk about your product on their own free will. If you have new technology and a new product, a journalist’s opinion and comment is far more important and believable than an advertisement.”

“Within eighteen months, the DC01 vacuum cleaner was the biggest seller in the UK market. Our first sales were through hefty mail order catalogues. These devoted a few pages to vacuum cleaners. We were among the last pages, at the bottom, with a small, square picture of the DC01… Ours was the most expensive in these catalogues by some margin and they were not the sort of place you would expect expensive items to be sold. Both we and the buyers at the catalogue were, in fact, astonished that DC01 did so well through their pages, with repeat orders coming in. I have never, though, believed that someone’s income is a bar to them wanting to buy the best product and a vacuum cleaner is an important purchase.”

We decided to highlight the Achilles’ heel of other vacuums - the bag and its shortcomings.”

I love the fact we tackled prosaic products, making the vacuum cleaner into a high-performance machine.”

“From the beginning we decided that we would create our own publicity materials and advertising. We would not use outside agencies. This is because we want to talk fearlessly about technology, which, of course is what had driven Dyson into being. Since we have developed the technology, we should know how to explain it to others.”

“I didn’t want anyone to buy our vacuum cleaner through slick advertising. I wanted them to buy it because it performed. We could be straightforward in what we said, explaining things simply and clearly.”

I believe that trustworthiness and loyalty come from striving to develop and make high performing products and then looking after customers who have bought them. I am not a believer in the theory that great marketing campaigns can replace great products. What you say should be true to who you are.”

Manufacturing

“Experience taught me that, ideally, a manufacturer - Dyson certainly - should aim to source as little as possible from outside the company. Those of us who drove British cars made in the 1970’s know pretty much exactly why. Poor assembly aside, what often let these cars down were components sourced from poor-quality external suppliers. Electrical failures were legion.”

“Obviously at Dyson we cannot make absolutely everything on own own, but we work with suppliers so that they are in tune with us, with our manufacturing standards and our values. Because what we’re doing is special and different, we can’t go to a company like Foxconn, for example. which makes well known American, Canadian, Chinese, Finnish & Japanese electronic products. Those products are mostly made from off-the-shelf components. We design our own components. We don’t buy them off the shelf.”

“You can manufacture good-quality, pioneering technology much more readily when you sit side by side with your suppliers rather than 10,000 miles away in a different time zone.”

We build close relationships with owners of factories so we can build our machines in their premises. The tooling, assembly lines and test stations are ours and we control the purchasing and quality. We don’t approach a sub-contractor and say, ‘Make me a product of this or this design.’ We tend to go to outfits which have never made vacuum cleaners before or hairdryers, robots, fans and heaters or purifiers or lights, and we teach their people to make things using our production methods. It’s a heavily engaged and involved process of learning and improvement.”

“We need other factories because, expanding at the rate of 25% each year, we simply couldn’t cope with the planning and building of new factories even in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philiipines.”

Going Global

“I knew that if Dyson was to be a successful technology company, rather than just a British vacuum cleaner manufacturer, we couldn’t be Little Englanders. We needed to become global, and quickly. England, and the rest of the United Kingdom, is simply not a big enough market on its own to sustain the constant and huge investment technology requires.”

“In 2004, we took the DC12 cylinder vacuum to Japan, calling it the ‘Dyson City.’ It was engineered specifically for the tiny, perfectly formed homes of Japan. We were amazed by its success. Within three months it had captured 20% of the Japanese market.”

“Dyson has become as much an Asian business as a British one: our products are sold in eighty-three countries around the world, so we are arguably a truly global company. Having started in Britain and consistently grown in Britain, we, for some time now, sell over 95% of our products in our global markets.”

Acquisitions

We are not in the business of buying up other companies. It may be a quick way to acquire technology or a business that would augment a company, but it can be difficult to assimilate the people and their ways of doing things. Usually, I feel, it’s better to start your own research project or your own business, which, although slower to begin with, develops organically and is stronger for it.”

Dyson Electric Car

“Because of the shifting commercial sand, we made the decision to pull out of production [of our electric car] at the very last minute. N526 was a brilliant car. Very efficient motors. Very aerodynamic. Wonderful to drive and be driven in. We just couldn’t ever have made money from it, and for all our enthusiasm for the project we were not prepared to risk the rest of Dyson.”

“Fortunately, we were able to stomach the £500 million cost and survive. We did, though, push ourselves to learn a great deal in areas including batteries, robotics, air treatment, and lighting. We also learned more about virtual engineering as a tool in the design process and how, we would be able to make products more quickly and less expensively. These were all valuable lessons for the future.”

Private Company & Long Term Thinking

“Today, Dyson is a global company. I own it, and this really matters to me. It remains a private company. Without shareholders to hold back, we are free to take long-term and radical decisions. I have no interest in going public with Dyson because I know that this would spell the end of the company’s freedom to innovate in the way it does.”

“When you own the whole company, and especially if you are free of debt, from the early days and for better or worse, all decisions are your own. So you take these very seriously and follow your own view of risk balanced, hopefully, with reward. This certainly sharpens the mind.”

“We’re one family-owned company following its interest and passions.”

The advantages of a family business are that they can think in the very long term, and invest in the long term, in ways public companies are unable to do. I also believe that family-owned enterprises have a spirit, conscience and philosophy often lacking in public companies.”

Win-Win & ESG

“In our first year in Currys [retailer], Mark Souhami, one of the bosses alongside the founder Stankley Kalms, invited me to lunch with them both. They explained that because of Dyson they were now making a profit in their vacuum cleaner section and he wanted more Dyson products.”

“I have always loathed companies that use ‘greenwash’ as part of their marketing. I would rather reduce our environmental impact quietly and by action. We were, and remain, a company primarily of engineers and because of this we have sought from the outset to use as little energy or materials as possible to solve or complete one particular task. Lean engineering is good engineering.”

“For me, as for all Dyson engineers, lightness - lean engineering and material efficiency - is a guiding principle. Using less material means using less energy in the process of making things. It also means lighter products that need less energy to power them and are easier to handle and so more pleasurable to use.”

Dyson has always focused on making long-lasting machines that use fewer resources while achieving higher performance. Lighter machines resulting from developing new technology and reinventing the format, consumer less energy and are not only better for the planet but also more pleasurable to use. Our cord-free vacuum cleaners, for instance, are a fraction of the weight and use a fraction of the electricity than their predecessors did. This has come about by taking an entirely different approach and developing new technology, motors and batteries, from the ground up.”

We must move ever closer to a culture whereby we minimise the use of materials through lean engineering along with the recycling of products at the end of their lives. It’s not just okay to politely offset our carbon footprint. We have to deal with it at source.”

“As Dyson, we are trying at every turn to touch the ground lightly in everything we do, to make more from less and to create a circular system through which we aim to recycle everything we use.”

Removing Middlemen

“Over the past three years we had been striving to sell more products direct to our customers ourselves, either online or through Dyson Demo stores. By early 2021 we had 356 Dyson stores. We have been opening them around the world so that customers can try our Dyson products in the best possible way. There are two reasons for this. First, we like to have a direct relationship with our customers, who are buying our product for which we are responsible, and we want to know how we can help them.

Secondly, retailers around the world are declining in numbers and sales. They are nothing like the force they were, due of course to the decline of the high street and the rise of internet shopping. If you want to buy from a website, why not buy from the Dyson website! Why not deal directly with the manufacturer?’”

“When I started out with the vacuum cleaner business, wholesalers and retailers made most of the money .. which is why today a lot of our sales at Dyson are direct.

Cutting out the middleman, and those who add no value, ought to be a popular national campaign. It would mean a possibility of profit for risk takers and producers, and lower prices for consumers.”

Listen to Customers

Listening to what our users say is gold dust and I really enjoy reading or hearing about complaints. We devised a system of reporting all remarks heard by customers in stores or by store salespeople from all over the world, so that everyone in the company can see this priceless intelligence.”

Optimism

I have great faith that science and technology can solve problems, from more sustainable and efficient products to the production of more and better food, and a more sustainable world. It is technological and scientific breakthroughs, far more than messages of doom, that will lead to this world. We need to go forwards optimistically into the future as if into the light, and with bright new ideas rather than darkness and end to human ingenuity portrayed by doomsayers.”

“The depressing thing is that harbingers of doom and gloom get far more attention than optimists and problem solvers. I feel very strongly that progress should be embraced and encouraged, and it is a duty of governments and companies to catalyse the ideas of the progressive and harness them to achieve good ends.”

Summary

Most people would consider someone who’d failed 5,126 times and succeeded just once, a failure. Yet, that’s exactly what James Dyson did. That one success was the acorn that grew into a $US10 billion dollar fortune (talk about asymmetric returns!)

There’s a myriad of lessons for inventors, investors and entrepreneurs in the pages of this book. Many of the lessons are equally applicable to each endeavour; maintaining focus, taking a long term view, continuously learning, challenging conventional wisdom and adopting a multi-disciplinary mindset.

As you delve into the story an investment case emerges and the pieces of the puzzle start to fit together. An inventive fanatic full of passion, tenacity, resilience and self-belief recognises a prosaic industry that’s been neglected by technology and ripe for disruption. The target market is huge and somewhat immune from the vagaries of the economic cycle. A kernel of inventive insight, a variant perception on consumers preparedness to pay more for quality products and constant iteration leads to the development of a revolutionary product.

Driven by a purpose beyond wealth accumulation (obliquity), a ‘technology’ business emerges. Full control of the ecosystem and intellectual property become further competitive attributes difficult to challenge. As technology compounds (a’la Brian Arthur) the barriers to competition widen. The tone is set from the top - a culture of continuous innovation and rejecting the status quo flourishes. Risk taking on a scale where failure is tolerable (a’la Palchinsky principle) is encouraged, creating new possibilities. Private ownership and low debt affords a long term view - no one is watching the quarterly shot clock.

While there is no spreadsheet or financial model, there is a full scale mental model, or theory, developing. The component mental models, together, shed light on the Dyson company’s extraordinary success. My contention is this latter model will prove more useful in determining whether Dyson will continue to prosper in the future.

Let’s not forget however, that without James Dyson, there would be no Dyson. Like many of the great businesses we’ve studied, it started with a fanatic.

Source:
James Dyson - Invention: A Life,’ James Dyson, Simon & Schuster, 2021.

Further Learning:

James Dyson - Invention: A Life - Interactive Portal.’


Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER


Thinking About Margin of Safety

Screen Shot 2021-07-28 at 7.32.26 am.png

If anything, the past few years has reminded us that the future is unknown and events can take turns you would never expect. Businesses have set-backs, economies have downturns and even the best investors make mistakes. Because of this, leaving some room for error makes eminent sense. Almost a century ago, Ben Graham first proposed the concept of Margin of Safety in his seminal book, ‘Security Analysis.’ Ever since, the term has been indoctrinated into the investing lexicon of the world’s most successful investors.

Like most things investing however, there’s conjecture around what constitutes a ‘Margin of Safety.’ While most investors consider margin of safety in the context of a purchase discount relative to a company’s intrinsic value, others look towards low valuation ratios, avoiding high multiple stocks, seeking a high degree of business quality or a combination thereof.

If you subscribe to Buffett’s first rule of investing, ‘Don’t Lose Money,’ then, ‘Don’t buy without a Margin of Safety,’ would seem sensible advice. But how do you achieve it? Should a ‘Margin of Safety’ be applied to all investments? Or to the portfolio as whole? Is it acceptable to invest without a margin of safety?

Over the years, my views on Margin of Safety have evolved. Here are some thoughts.

Low Ratios

A common misconception is that low stock valuation multiples provide a margin of safety. This line of reasoning assumes bad news is already priced in, rendering share prices indifferent to negative developments.

Over two decades of experience in markets would have me believe otherwise. A stock purchased on a low multiple doesn’t imply a margin of safety. Screening for low multiple stocks is just as likely to get you caught in ‘value traps’; businesses whose best times are behind them.

"If anything, we are less likely to look at something that sells at a low relationship to book than something that sells at a high relationship to book, because the chances are we’re looking at a poor business in the first case and a good business in the second case.” Warren Buffett

“Starting with a rank-order valuation screen is more likely to lead you into less than-optimal businesses.” Brian Bares

When you own an inferior business, time is working against you - as the underlying value of the business deteriorates.

“The investor who spots a price discrepancy in an ordinary business hopes that the share price will promptly rise to the intrinsic value he has estimated. The more time passes, the longer they take to realise the forecast return, and the more exposed they are to uncontrollable risks.” IP Capital

If buying low PE stocks were the key to investment success, we’d all be rich. In recent times, limiting yourself to such stocks has meant forgoing many of the best investment opportunities. If you moved to a new city, would you ask the local agent for the names of the cheapest suburbs? Not likely. The same should apply to investing.

High Ratios

All things being equal, the lower the multiple paid for a business, the better; you’re paying less for the business and there’s less room for the multiple to fall should things not pan out as expected. It doesn’t follow however, that purchasing a stock on a high multiple provides no margin of safety. The first question to ask is, ‘is today’s multiple even relevant?’ and the follow up questions are, ‘what will the earnings be in three to five years time?’ and, ‘what will the multiple be in three to five years time?”

Some of the best investment opportunities arise when investors and analysts apply standard industry multiples to near term earnings which are completely anomalous to where a business might be in the future (completely undervaluing the company). In such cases, the near term multiple can be meaningless. Joel Greenblatt made this point in a recent interview:

Screen Shot 2021-01-17 at 9.00.54 pm.png

“One of the big mistakes I made was looking at Walmart, seeing what a good business it was thirty years ago. Think about it this way, if you’re looking at the numbers to do with fifty stores but you can see they can have a thousand or two thousand stores, like any of these new internet businesses with an unlimited growth trajectory, the numbers you’re using at fifty stores aren’t very helpful. You might have a model that can expand, but putting a multiple on whatever you’re earning on fifty stores, if you could have 1000 or 2000, of course they’re meaningless. You really have to make some estimates about what the opportunity set is and what the competition will be over a long period of time. Traditionally these have been some of my biggest mistakes of omission. Missing huge opportunities.”

Stocks that look optically expensive today can actually be cheap on the basis of future earnings. Rather than disregard multiples altogether, it’s worth trying to establish whether the stock might be on a reasonable multiple in the future.

“In 2007, Apple traded at 30x EPS but only 3x 5 years out. The art of growth investing is realising a stock that appears expensive today can be dirt cheap 5-7 years later. Multi-baggers are the source of most outperformance and hide many mistakes.” Philipe Laffonte

"It isn’t a multiple of today’s earnings that is the primary determinate of things. We bought our Coca-Cola at a price of $11 a share. And it’ll earn $2.30-$2.40 this year. So, that’s under five times this year’s earnings, but it was a pretty good size multiple back when we bought it." Warren Buffett

Even businesses that don’t report profits can provide a Margin of Safety - it all comes down to understanding the specifics of the business; how is value defined? how it is created? what are the potential outcomes?

Bill Miller made this point at the 2019 Santa Fe Institute Symposium using Amazon and John Malone’s TCI as examples:

“Probably the best example of a misunderstanding of the valuation of anything has been Amazon over its entire history. It was constantly, you know, Baron’s saying, ‘Amazon.bomb,’ and everybody talking about how they don't make any money, they don't make any money, they don't make any money. CBC did a special on it, and one of the things they interviewed me about was Amazon's finances. They start off with, oh, how can you own this thing that doesn't make any money? And I have two answers to that.

Number one, John Malone, the great cable investor. I said, if you put one dollar in John's TCI when John became the CEO, and you kept it there for the twenty-five years that one dollar is 900 dollars. And he never reported a profit in twenty-five years. So, something else is going on besides profits and the report of profits.

With Amazon, I said, look, there’s a reason that they’re called ‘generally accepted accounting principles,’ and not ‘divinely inspired accounting principles’ or ‘immaculately conceived accounting principles.’ They’re a way to capture a certain type of information for particular kinds of companies that have a particular kind of economics.”

The confidence to underwrite the future requires an understanding of the primary drivers that will help ensure a business reaches the anticipated destination.

Due to the power of compounding, businesses that can sustain success over decades are often undervalued in spite of an ‘optically-high’ PE ratio. With regards to Walmart, Nick Sleep noted you could have paid 150 times the price in the early years and still earned a ten percent annual return. That’s 150 times the prevailing share price not 150 times earnings! Furthermore, ten years later you could have paid a 150X PE and earned ten percent returns. That really is the magic of compounding.

The world’s best investors often confess that selling great businesses because of a high near term multiple has been one of their biggest mistakes. If the destination is intact, stay the course.

Discount To Intrinsic Value

Generally, the most accepted definition of Margin of Safety relates to a company’s Intrinsic Value; the present value of a business’ future cashflows. Purchasing at a discount to one’s estimate of Intrinsic Value provides the Margin of Safety. While highly subjective, the more predictable a company’s earnings over the long term, the less divergent the estimates of intrinsic value will be, and the more reliable the calculation of a margin of safety.

"The concept of a margin of safety is that an investor should purchase a security at a price sufficiently below his estimate of its intrinsic value that he will have protection against permanent loss even if his estimate proves somewhat optimistic.” Ed Wachenheim

"We insist on a margin of safety in our purchase price. If we calculate the value of a common stock to be only slightly higher than its price, we're not interested in buying. We believe this margin of safety principle, emphasised by Ben Graham, to be the cornerstone of investment success." Warren Buffett

The idea of buying at a discount to intrinsic value is never going to become obsolete. Provided you’ve got the ability to ride out any short term volatility, in time, you’ll be rewarded as the share price converges with intrinsic value.

Quality

Quality’ is another investing term that’s hard to define; a conservative balance sheet, aligned management, high returns on capital and a track record of success make a good foundation. As regards the future, it’s often the qualitative characteristics that determine performance; a business’ purpose, management, culture, adaptability, innovativeness and the company’s relationships within its ecosystem.

Margin of Safety is about ensuring survival, both now and in the future. History has shown high-quality companies tend to weather near-term volatility, crises, corporate mishaps and competitive threats better than lower quality businesses - and go on to prosper in time.

“Major capital losses occur mostly when the business suffers irreparable damage. Exceptional companies are, by definition, those best protected against competitors, disruptive technologies, poor governance, and other factors that can destroy value. A portfolio of exceptional companies can be both more concentrated and safer than a portfolio of ordinary companies.” IP Capital

“Bad companies are destroyed by crises; good companies survive them; great companies are improved by them.” Andy Grove, Intel

The best businesses do things differently, they tend to be the leaders in what they do, they thrive in different environments, they fulfil an important customer demand, they take a longer term view and do things right by their customers, employees, suppliers, community and shareholders. They develop new products, grow markets and have a level of control over their destiny. Investors who own them enjoy a Margin of Safety.

“The most important three words in investing, stated by Mr. Graham are: Margin of Safety. What that means to us, is that we are looking at investing in very, very high-quality companies that have great franchises and that have had these great franchises for many years.” David Polen

“The best long term margin of safety comes not from an investment’s price but from the value of a company’s sustained competitive advantage over very long periods of time. That’s what quality investing is all about.” Thomas Russo

“[Ben Graham] gave the world the concept of margin of safety. We utilise that very much and the margin of safety for us is the quality of each business that we are investing in." Jeff Mueller

“The margin of safety is not just in the price you pay, it's also in the quality of the business, it's in the balance sheet of the business and the accounting and also in terms of the quality of top management. When we bought shares of Constellation Software, I don't remember how much we paid but we paid a reasonable valuation, I think 18 or 19 times earnings. To us the real margin of safety was Mark Leonard.” Francois Rochon

“When people talk about margin of safety in investing, they usually talk about things that are financial in nature. They talk about asset value or they talk about sustainable return on equity or whatever. I'm much more focused on the nature of business franchise and the replicability of that, and the quality of the people running it.” Steve Mandel

"A good business model provides the ultimate margin of safety." Jake Rosser

Exceptional businesses compound their capital at high rates over time while inferior businesses tend to compound their disadvantages. Compounding machines are defined by high quality businesses, not cheap price.

Portfolio Margin of Safety

Where I once looked for a margin of safety in every investment, I now consider Margin of Safety in a portfolio context which allows me to relax the requirements for a small portion of the portfolio. I’m an advocate of the idea that markets are complex adaptive systems; they’re unpredictable, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, and they’re subject to non-linear outcomes. Capturing some of that non-linearity may require you to venture into companies with less margin of safety; perhaps the business is yet to hit an inflection point, hasn’t been stress tested by economic cycles, offers a somewhat binomial outcome or the balance sheet isn’t as pristine as one would ordinarily prefer.

An investment with the potential to be a multi-bagger might be worth considering in a portfolio context despite a limited ‘Margin of Safety.’

“I confess to finding the Margin of Potential Upside more alluring than the classic Margin of Safety.” James Anderson

“If you can lose 100 percent on something, so say an option, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t ever buy options. Sometimes they’re really interesting and if you can sometimes get to the point of view that even though you can lose 100 percent on a particular investment, it might be an interesting thing to do.” David Abrams

“I will invest in companies where the possibility the equity goes to zero has to be recognised as part of the equation – and my record on that front is not spotless. Charlie Munger has talked about how depending on the probabilities you assign to the up and down case, it may be a perfectly reasonable bet to accept the possibility of a zero if your upside is 5x or more. I agree.” Robert Robotti

Even Messrs Buffett and Munger have recognised as much. Given the nature of their insurance business, this may come as little surprise.

“Charlie and I by nature are pretty risk-averse. But we are very willing to enter into transactions — if we knew it was an honest coin, and someone wanted to give us seven-to-five or something of the sort on one flip, how much of Berkshire’s net worth would we put on that flip? Well it would sound like a big number to you. It would not be a huge percentage of the net worth, but it would be a significant.” Warren Buffett

"Mostly, Berkshire, in its history, has bought common stocks that practically couldn’t fail. But occasionally, Berkshire just makes an intelligent gamble where there’s plenty of chance of failure, but there’s enough chance of success so the gamble is worth taking." Charlie Munger

A portfolio can provide a Margin of Safety despite a small component having elevated downside risk. An everyday example is index investing. The S&P500 has managed to compound at c.10%pa for the last hundred years in spite of many component companies losing significant value or becoming bankrupt.

Buffett has long analogised investing to baseball, but better. There are no strike-outs. Taking that analogy a step further, it’s been noted .. ‘‘Baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you get is four. In the wider world, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs.” That’s certainly true of investing. Baillie Gifford’s James Anderson points to research by Professor Hendrik Bessembinder showing the entire gain in the US stock market since 1926 can be attributable to the best-performing four percent of listed companies (when stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation).

One of the most insightful investment papers I’ve ever read is Charlie Munger’s 1996 discussion of Coca-Cola. Here, Munger presents a case study that asks rhetorically how one would go about producing a $2 trillion business from an initial $2m outlay - the focus is very much on the upside rather than the downside. The story encapsulates the incredible asymmetric opportunities that can exist in markets.

Searching for these outliers and sizing such positions appropriately can enhance portfolio performance while not exposing the portfolio to an undue level of risk.

'To have a few higher-multiple names is very different than having a weighted average price/sales ratio of 6x or even higher at the whole portfolio level. The air begins to get thin at those altitudes!' Rajiv Jain

Dual Margin of Safety

Many of the world’s most successful investors have adopted the concept of a ‘dual’ margin of safety - seeking high quality companies at attractive discounts to intrinsic value.

“We strive to avoid situations without our cherished dual margin of safety – the quality of business and the price. We need both to counter our inevitable mistakes and unforeseen events.” Christopher Bloomstran

“Margin of safety for us comes from the quality of the business and second from buying into it at a substantial discount to our estimate of intrinsic value. Neither is sufficient on its own for us to be interested.” Mark Curnin

"The margin of safety in our investment strategy is to identify fundamentally good businesses and adhere to strict valuation discipline." Jeffrey Ubben

Summary

While a Margin of Safety doesn’t pertain to purchasing low multiple stocks or avoiding high multiple stocks, it can be attained, over the longer term, by holding high quality businesses acquired below their intrinsic value.

Unfortunately, little in investing is clear cut and there are plenty of exceptions to the received dogma. Even investments with a low margin of safety can enhance portfolio results if they offer the prospect of highly asymmetric returns, provided the overall portfolio exhibits an appropriate margin of safety.

Participating in such highly skewed opportunities might require an evolution in thinking beyond the traditional mantra of value investing; applying the concept of margin of safety to the portfolio as a whole, while relaxing that constraint at the individual stock level.

A portfolio comprised primarily of companies exhibiting a dual margin of safety combined with some asymmetric opportunities, appropriately sized, might provide the best of all worlds.


Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER

Learning from Trader Joe's, Joe Coulombe

It’s a rare person who can run their own business, and rarer still are those who can do it well. And in a world of stiff competition and consumer fickleness, those people who’s businesses can both survive and thrive in that environment are probably the rarest of them all.

If you choose a manager to whom you entrust your capital, in the words of Charlie Munger, choose a ‘business fanatic.’ Such individuals live, sleep and breathe their businesses. They’re not bound by the same restraints as most business people; constantly pushing boundaries, trialing new approaches, thinking outside the box, challenging conventional wisdom and always looking for business improvements. If you’re in business, these are the last type of people you want to compete with. One man that epitomized such fanaticism was the late Joe Coulombe, founder of the convenience store chain that carried his name, Trader Joe’s.

“Edward H. Heller, a pioneer venture capitalist used the term ‘vivid spirit’ to describe the type of individual to whom he was ready to give significant financial backing. He said that behind every unusually successful corporation was this kind of determined entrepreneurial personality with the drive, the original ideas, and the skill to make such a company a truly worthwhile investment.” Phil Fisher

Joe tells his story in the book, ‘Becoming Trader Joe - How I Did Business My Way and Still Beat the Big Guys.’ It contains a wealth of wisdom, particularly when it comes to thinking about running a successful retailer. Over more than a quarter of a century, Trader Joe’s sales grew at a compound rate of 19% per year and the company’s net worth grew at a compound rate of 26% per annum over the same period - no mean feat for a commodity business that’s hard to differentiate. Furthermore, the business never lost money in a year and incredibly each year was more profitable than the last.

When the competitor 7-Eleven extended it’s footprint into California in the 1970’s, Pronto Markets, the precursor to Trader' Joe’s, already enjoyed the highest sales per store of any convenience operator in America by a factor of three. A high wage policy, strong locations, a few liquor licences, and the beginnings of a differentiated strategy through product knowledge was the core of their success.

One of the mental models I particularly enjoyed in the book was Joe’s concept of ‘Double Entry Retailing.’ A form of second level thinking, Joe recognised that making changes to Demand Side factors had an influence on Supply Side factors which aren’t always obvious. A striking example was the introduction of orange juice freshly squeezed on the premises. While a great Demand Side success - customers embraced the product - it was a total nightmare to administer because of the Supply Side issues; the great variation in sweetness of oranges over the course of a year, difficulty in ensuring machines squeezed the right amount and disposal of the leftover rinds. As a result it was eventually phased out.

You’ll recognise many of the characteristics that form a common link with the other great businesses we’ve studied. I’ve included some of my favourite extracts from the book below.

Harnessing Demographic & Technological Change

‘The clue, the keystone of the arch of Trader Joe’s, was a small news item in Scientific American in 1965. When we left Stanford, my father-in-law, Bill Steere, a professor of botany, gave me a subscription to Scientific American. In terms of creating my fortune, it’s the most important magazine I’ve ever read. The news item said that, of all the people in the US who were qualified to go to college in 1932, in the pit of the Depression, only 2 percent did. By contrast, in 1964, of all the people qualified to go to college 60 percent in fact actually did. The big change, of course, was the GI Bill of Rights that went into effect in 1945.

A second news item, one from the Wall Street Journal, told me that the Boeing 747 would go into service in 1970, and that it would slash the cost of international travel. In Pronto Markets we had noticed that people who travelled - even to San Francisco - were far more adventurous in what they were willing to put in their mouths. Travel is, after all, a form of education.

Trader Joe’s was conceived from those two demographic news stories. What I saw here was a small but growing demographic opportunity in people who were well educated. 7-Eleven, and the whole convenience store genre, served the most basic needs of the most mindless demographics with cigarettes, Coca-Cola, milk, Budweiser, candy, bread, eggs. I saw an opportunity to differentiate ourselves radically from mainstream retailing to mainstream people.”

Obliquity

“I hope you’ll consider the following, my favourite quote from my favourite book on Management, ‘The Winning Performance’ by Clifford and Cavanaugh,’ ‘The fourth (general themes in winning corporations] is a view of profit and wealth-creation as inevitable byproducts of doing other things well. Money is a useful yardstick for measuring quantitative performance and profit and an obligation to investors. But … making money as an end in itself ranks low.’”

A Bias to Action & Tenacity

“In 1962, Barbara Tuchman published ‘The Guns of August’, an account of the first ninety days of WWI, It’s the best book on management - and, especially, mismanagement - I’ve ever read. The most basic conclusion I drew from from her book was that, if you adopt a reasonable strategy, as opposed to waiting for an optimum strategy, and stick with it, you’ll probably succeed. Tenacity is as important as brilliance.”

Trying to find an optimum solution in business is a waste of time; the factors in the equation are changing all the time.”

Value, Empower & Pay Employees Well

“You’ve got to have something to hang your hat on. The one core value I chose was our high compensation policies, which I put in place from the very start in 1958… This is the most important single business decision I ever made: to pay people well. First Pronto Markets and then Trader Joe’s had the highest-paid, highest benefitted people in retail.”

“Time and again I am asked why no one has successfully replicated Trader Joe’s. The answer is that no one has been willing to pay the wages and benefits, and thereby attract - and keep - the quality of people who work at Trader Joe’s.”

thumbnail_IMG_1551.jpg

“[I was asked,] ‘But how could you afford to pay so much more than your competition?’ The answer, of course, is that good people pay by their extra productivity. You can’t afford to have cheap employees.”

“Equally important was our practice of giving every full-time employee an interview every six months. At Stanford I’d been taught that employees never organise (join unions) because of the money; they organise because of un-listened-to grievances.”

The [store] Captains had the salary plus a bonus that theoretically had no limit. The bonus was based on Trader Joe’s overall profit, allocated among the stores based on each store’s contribution. In 1988, several Captains made bonuses of more than 70 percent of their base pay. Unless a bonus system promises, and delivers big rewards, it should be abandoned.”

“My idea, often stated to everybody, was that the [store] Captains should have the chance to make more than executives in the office. In a traditional chain store, managers aspire to become bureaucrats with cushy, high-paying jobs in the office. I wanted to kill such aspirations at the start.”

“Part timers .. at a time when the minimum wage was $4.35, we often paid $13.00 per hour because these people were worth it.”

Productivity in part is a product of tenure. That’s why I believe that turnover is the most expensive form of labor expense.”

We instituted full health and dental insurance back in the 1960's when it was cheap. When I left, we were paying $6,000 per employee per year!”

Each full-timer was supposed to be able to perform every job in the store, including checking, balancing the books, ordering each department, stocking, opening, closing, going to the bank, etc. Everybody worked the check stands in the course of the day, including the [store] Captain.”

In thirty years we never had a layoff of full-time employees. Seasonal swings in business were handled with overtime pay to full-time employees, and by adjusting part-time hours. The stability of full-time employment at Trader Joe’s was due in part to caution opening new stores, and insisting on high volume stores.”

Cost of goods sold is the dominant expense. The funny thing is that grocers seem to spend more effort squeezing payroll than squeezing Cost of Goods Sold, though there is at least five times more opportunity in the latter.”

Retail & Real Estate Decisions

‘First we upped the investment ante by taking only prime locations, which could generate the most sales, even though the rents were higher. A lease is an investment, perhaps the most serious and certainly the least changeable a retailer can make. Financially, a lease is simply a long-term loan… Most retail bankruptcies come from bad real estate leasing decisionsEarly in my career I learned there are two kinds of decisions: the ones that are easily reversible and the ones that aren’t. Fifteen-year leases are the least-reversible decisions you can make. That’s why, throughout my career, I kept absolute control of real estate decisions.”

“The keys to management are strong locations with good people.”

“People often ask me, how many stores did we have at such-and-such time? It’s the wrong question to ask. What’s important is dollar sales. For example, from 1980 to 1988, we increased the number of stores by 50 percent but sales were up 340 percent.”

My preference is to have a few stores, as far apart as possible, and to make them as high volume as possible.”

“Too many stores, to many irreversible leases, too much geographical saturation was a recurrent theme in the failure of American retail chains in the twentieth century.”

Ancient Mariner Retailers claim that ‘volume solves everything.’ If it’s profitable volume, they’re right. Things go most sour in the lowest-volume stores. It’s like riding a bicycle, the faster it goes, the more stable it is. The ‘normal distribution’ of most chains is 20% dogs, 60% okay stores, and 20% winners. I believe in ruthlessly dumping the dogs at whatever cost. Why? Because their real cost is in management energy. You always spend more time trying to make the dogs acceptable than in raising the okay stores into winners. And it’s in the dogs that you always have the most personnel problems."

“I believe that the sine qua non for successful retailing is demographic coherence: all your locations should have the same demographics whether you are selling clothing or wine.”

“I liked semi-decayed neighbourhoods, were the census tract income statistics looked terrible, but the mortgages were all paid-down, and the kids had left home. Housing and rental prices tend to be lower, and more suitable for those underpaid academics. Related to this, I was more interested in the number of households in a given area than the number of people in a ZIP code. Trader Joe’s is not a store for kids or big families. One or two adults is just fine.”

“Computerisation has radically upgraded the statistics available: I’d probably do it more formally now. But there’s no substitute for ‘driving’ a location to ferret out traffic problems. And do it at night, too.”

“I hardly need to mention that a trading area is rarely determined by a radius. It’s determined by geographical barriers, boulevard access, and where the demographics lie.”

Let’s go back to the question of number of stores. How do you space them? Here are some parameters: You need to have enough stores in a trading area to economically amortise the radio advertising. You need enough stores in an area to have a large enough pool of employees. My rule was that distance between stores should not be measured in miles but in driving time. I wanted no less than twenty minutes between stores. That pretty much avoided the dread word, cannibalisation. Could a given trading area support more Trader Joe’s? Almost certainly! I figured we could break even at ten thousand core residences. But I wanted super-volume stores. If the credo that super-volume stores have the fewest operating problems is valid, then the overall health of the chain, in the long run, is maximised.”

How many trading areas should you enter? As long as you can preserve the culture of the company, and as long as logistics don’t kill you, go ahead.”

“Never, never, never sign a lease with a ‘continuous operation’ clause. That clause means you must stay open - you can’t ‘go dark’ and just pay the rent.”

Product Knowledge

The buyers at the supermarket chains knew nothing about what they sold, and they don’t want to know. What they did know all about was extorting slotting allowances, cooperative ad revenue, failure allowances, and back-haul concessions from the manufacturers.”

Four Tests

“The advantage of hard liquor merchandise was that it met three tests:

a) A high value per cubic inch, essential to a small store format
b) A high rate of consumption
c) It had to be easily handled

If we could have added a fourth test, it would be that we had to be outstanding in the field. Still trying to maximise the use of a small store, I looked for categories that met the Four Tests; high value per cubic inch, high rate of consumption; easily handled; and something in which we could be outstanding in term of price or assortment. For example, diamonds met the first test but flunked the second. Fruits and vegetables met the first and second but flunked the third because produce requires constant reworking. Fresh meat flunked the third test even more.”

Purpose

Most of my ideas about how to act as an entrepreneur are derived from ‘The Revolt of the Masses’ by Jose Ortega y Gasset, the greatest Spanish philosopher of the twentieth century. I believe it offers a master ‘plan of action’ for the would-be entrepreneur, who usually has no reputation and few resources. Ortega offers an explanation of how such a person can get an enterprise started. In the context of the career of Julius Caesar, an entrepreneur who started without power, Otega says of the state:

Human life, by its very nature, has to be dedicated to something, an enterprise glorious or humble, a destiny illustrious or trivial .. The State begins when groups, naturally divided, find themselves obliged to live in common. The obligation is not of brute force, but implies an impelling purpose, a common task which is set before the dispersed groups. Before all, the State is a plan of action and a Programme of Collaboration. The men are called upon so that together they may do something .. It is pure dynamism, the will to do something in common, and thanks to this the idea of the state, is bounded by no physical limits.

Most of my career has been spent selling ‘plans of action and programmes of collaboration.’ If you want to know what differentiates me from most manager’s that’s it. From the beginning, thanks to Ortega y Gasset, I’ve been aware of the need to sell everybody.”

Radical Transparency

“Throughout my career, my policy has been full disclosure to employees about the true state of affairs, almost to the point of imprudence. I took a cue from General Patton, who thought that the greatest danger was not that the enemy would learn the plans, but that his own troops would not.”

Growth

Growth for the sake of growth still troubles me. It seems unnatural, even perverted. This helps explain why I went from 1974 to 1978 without opening another store. To keep sales increasing during the mid-1970s, we relied on new ideas implemented in existing stores. This was my favourite form of growth. I don’t think that any given store ever fully realises its potential.”

Smallness & Empowerment

“We developed a prototype [Trader Joe’s] store of 4,500 square feet. Here’s a good question: Given my need to get away from convenience stores, why did I stick with small stores? The answer was verbalised for us in ‘In Search of Excellence,’ Tom Peter’s best-selling book on management. He called it ‘The Power of Chunking’:

‘The essential building block of a company is the section [which] within its sphere does not await executive orders but takes initiatives. The key factor for success is getting one’s arms around almost any practical problem and knocking it off… The small group is the most visible of the chunking devices.’

The fundamental ‘chunk’ of Trader Joe’s is the individual store with its highly paid [store] Captain and staff; the people who are capable of exercising discretion. I admire Nordstrom’s fundamental instruction to its employees: use your judgement. Trader Joe’s finally settled down at an average of about eight thousand square feet in the 1980’s, but the concept of a relatively small store with a relatively small staff remains in force.”

Marketing & Customers

“At all times I wrote the Fearless Flyer [marketing newsletter] for over-educated, underpaid people. This requires two mindsets:

Trader Joe’s Fearless Flyer Newsletter

Trader Joe’s Fearless Flyer Newsletter

1) There are no such things as consumers - dolts who are driven by drivel to buy stuff they don’t need or even want. There are only customers, people who are reasonably well informed, and very well focused in their buying habits.

2) We always looked up to the customers in the text of the Fearless Flyer. We assumed they knew more than they did, we never talked down to them.

3) Given the first two assumptions, we assumed that our readers had a thirst for knowledge, 180 degrees opposite from supermarket ads. We emphasised informative advertising.’

Originally, we distributed the Fearless Flyer only in stores and to a small but growing list. [Later,] by mailing to addresses rather than to individuals - by blanketing entire ZIP codes - we were able to tremendously expand the distribution of the Fearless Flyer. The ZIPs to which we mailed, of course, were chosen on the basis of the likely concentration of over-educated and underpaid people.”

Word of Mouth

Word of Mouth: The Power of True Believers. As everyone knows, word of mouth is the most effective advertising of all. I have been known to say that there’s no better business to run than a cult. Trader Joe’s became a cult of the over-educated and underpaid, partly because we deliberately tried to make it a cult and partly because we kept the implicit promises with our clientele.”

There aren’t many cult retailers who successfully retain their cult status over a long period of time. A couple in California are In-N-Out Burger and Fry’s Electronics. But across America, in every town, there’s a particular donut shop, pizza parlour, bakery, greengrocer, bar, etc. that has a cult following of True Believers.”

Pricing

“One of the fundamental tenets of Trader Joe’s is that retail prices don’t change unless costs change. There are no weekend ad prices, no in-and-out pricing… I have always believed that supermarkets pricing is a shell game and I wanted no part of it.”

Retailing

The fundamental job of a retailer is to buy goods whole, cut them into pieces, and sell the pieces to the ultimate consumers. This is the most important mental construct I can impart on those of you who want to enter retailing. Most ‘retailers’ have no idea of the formal meaning of the word. Time and again, I had to remind myself just what my role in society was supposed to be.”

“[We decided] no outsiders of any sort were permitted in the store. All the work was done by employees.]”

“From 1958 through 1976, we tried to carry what the customer asked for, given the limits of our small stores and other operational parameters. Each store probably had access to ten thousand stock keeping units (SKUs), of which about three thousand were actually stocked in any given week. By the time I left in 1989, we were down to a band of 1,100 to 1,500 SKUs, all of which were delivered through a central distribution system.”

“Along the way not only did we drop a lot of products that our customers would have liked us to sell, even at not-outstanding prices, but we stopped cashing checks in excess of the amount of purchase, we stopped full-case discounts, and we persistently shortened the hours. We violated every received wisdom of retailing except one: we delivered great value, which is where most retailers fall.”

[We were] willing to discontinue any product if we were are unable to offer the right deal to the customer.”

“Instead of national brands, [we] focused on either Trader Joe’s label products or ‘no label’ products like nuts and dried fruits.”

We wouldn’t try to carry a whole line of spices, or bag candy, or vitamins. Each SKU had to justify itself as opposed to riding piggyback into the stores just so we had a ‘complete’ line. Depth of assortment was of no interest.”

Each SKU would stand on its own two feet as a profit centre. We would earn a gross profit on each SKU that was justified by the cost of handling that item. There would be no ‘loss leaders.’

Above all we would not carry any item unless we could be outstanding in terms of price (and make a profit at that price) or uniqueness.

‘I do not believe in keeping ‘spoils’ in the back room until some salesperson comes by to pick them up. I believe that products should move in only one direction, never back up the supply chain. When a bottle was broken, a can dented, or a ‘short fill’ was discovered, it went to the trash bin.”

“A guideline: No private label product was introduced for the sake of having a private label. This is 100 percent contrary to the policy of most supermarketsEach private label product had to have a reason, a point of differentiation.”

The willingness to do without any given product is one of the cornerstones of Trader Joe’s merchandising philosophy.”

No bulky products like paper towels or sugar, because the high-value-per-cubic inch rule still prevailed.. We simply went out of business on the ‘bulkers’ and did not replace them with private labels.”

I believe in the wisdom that you gain customers one by one, but you lose them in droves.”

“Back in 1967, [we] made a bet that rising levels of education would fragment the masses, that a small but growing group of people would be dissatisfied with having to consume what everybody else consumedThis philosophical approach put us in conflict with the mainstream of American retailing, which emphasises continuous products. Thus when a supermarket promotes Coca-Cola it doesn’t have to explain that Coca-Cola is a secret formula for a soft drink created a century ago in Atlanta.. Wines have not been popular in America because, intrinsically, they are not continuous products. You can’t just order up some more sugar and chemicals and make another batch. In 1987, I outlined to the buyers where I thought we should go:

1) we want continuous products. Any sane person does. We want continuous products which are profitable without creating a high-price image.

2) to create such products, they needed to be differentiated at least in order to avoid direct price comparison.

3) products in which we had an absolute buying advantage. For example, we were the largest seller of cheap Bordeaux blanc in the United States.

4) I was willing to continue to indulge in the spectacular ‘closeout’ sales of branded products, but I wanted to do so in the context of much greater overall sales, principally generated by continuous products, most of them private label.”

“I don’t think that the internet grocery store will successfully invade food retailing because you’re dealing with four different temperatures: dry grocery, refrigerated products, frozen products, and ice cream when you try to home-deliver foods.”

Showmanship is the sum total of all efforts to make contact with the customer. It’s the most ephemeral, the most difficult, and the most important of the Demand Side activities.”

All the research on whether people turn to the left or the right, or whether you can ‘force’ people to the rear of the store, is irrelevant if you’re a value retailer.”

Win-Win

Honour thy vendors: After all, these are the guys you’re buying from. They should not be treated as adversaries. Five year plan 1977 said, ‘Buying, therefore, is not just a matter of trying to beat down suppliers on price. It is a creative exercise of developing alternatives.’ Many of our best product ideas and special buying opportunities came from our vendors.”

Vendors should be regarded as an extension of the retailer, a Marks and Spencer concept. Their employees should be regarded almost as employees of the retailer. Concern for their welfare should be shown, because employee turnover at vendors sometimes can be more costly than turnover of your own employees.”

Tenants who enter negotiations with the idea of beating the landlord at the objective future game usually get the kind of landlords they deserve. And vice versa.”

Other non-merchandise vendors are very much extensions of Trader Joe’s and should be treated as much. Since we owned no trucks, warehouses, etc., I asked our people to keep track of the outsourced drivers and do their best to see that our contractors were paid reasonable wages with reasonable working conditions. Turnover is the most expensive labour expense!’

Committees

“I want to make it quite clear that I called all the shots. I reject management by committee.”

Economies of Scale

“The point where the ‘buying power’ and ‘selling power’ curves cross each other creates the magical physical thresholds. There are two magical physical thresholds that a retailer must achieve to be competitive: the truckload, and the ocean container load. These thresholds mark the limit of most economies of scale.”

Focus & Outsource

We tried to stay out of all functions that were not central to our primary job in society: namely, buying and selling merchandise.. [We’d] been getting rid of all functions except those buying and selling. We got rid of our own maintenance people, we sold off almost all the real estate we had acquired during the 1970’s, we never took mainframe computing in-house, etc.

Some choice quotes from Dr. Drucker: ‘In-house service activities have little incentive to improve their productivity .. The productivity is not likely to ramp up until it is possible to be promoted for doing a good job at it. And that will happen in support work only when such work is done by separate, free standing enterprises.’”

Business Problems

All businesses have problems. It’s the problems that create the opportunities. If a business is easy, every simple bastard would enter it.”

“This is one of the most important things I can impart; in any troubled company the people at lower levels know what ought to be done in terms of day-to-day operations. If you just ask them, you can find answers.”

Adapt, Challenge the Status Quo

“Believe me, you have to have a system for everything that has to happen in your business - you just may not be conscious of it. And you probably have still other systems that are not needed. That’s why The Winning Performance calls for a ‘continued contempt for business as usual.’ To practice ‘constitutional contempt,’ you have to arrive every day with the attitude, ‘Why do we do such-and-such that way?’ Better yet, why do we do it at all? Usually the answer is, ‘We’ve always done it that way,’ ‘That’s the way we did it at my last job,’ or ‘All our competitors are doing it.’

Mental Model - Double Entry Retailing

“I hit on the idea of using double entry accounting as an analogy, what I call Double Entry Retailing. On the left side of the ledger is the business in terms of how its customers see it: I call this the Demand Side. On the right side of the ledger are the factors that limit or determine the retailer's ability to satisfy those demands: the Supply Side.

All businesses, whether manufacturing, wholesaling, services, etc., have [the] fearful symmetry of both Demand and Supply sides. And all businesses are subject to the ultimate supply-side constraint of cash: you can do anything, no matter how stupid, within that fearful symmetry, as long as you don't run out of cash. From my view, the Demand Side of Retailers can be analysed in terms of five variables:

1. The assortment of merchandise offered for sale.
2. Pricing: stability and relative to competition.
3. Convenience: geographical, in-store, and time.
4. Credit: the accepted methods of payment.
5. Showmanship: the sum of all activities that result in making contact with the customer, from advertising to store architecture to employee cleanliness.

Here are factors on the Supply Side:

1. Merchandise Vendors
2. Employees
3. The way you do things: "habits" and "culture"
4. Systems
5. Non-merchandise vendors
6. Landlords
7. Governments
8. Bankers and investment bankers
9. Stockholders
10. Crime

As in double entry accounting, the change in any factor must be matched by a corresponding change in another factor. For example, a decision to increase geographical convenience (Demand Side) obviously involves some change of policy with landlords (Supply Side) including the amount of rent you're willing to pay. Consider how Barney's paid through the nose because they thought they had to offer the geographical convenience of being in Beverly Hills. How big a factor was this in Barney's subsequent bankruptcy? Was it Demand Side success at the price of Supply Side failure?

The lists above aren't much different from other businesses. What distinguishes retailing is the asymmetry of the fearful symmetry: the huge number of customers (Demand Side) vs. the number of suppliers. This is the exact opposite of a government defence contractor.

This lopsided butterfly may cause a retailer to act as if the only people they have to ‘sell’ to are customers: the Demand Side. That’s a major mistake. All the people on the supply side have to be sold, too.”

“One of the smartest things we ever did was to cut the hours of Trader Joe’s. This is mostly a Supply Side question, but the quality and attitude of the employees handling our customers is a Demand Side factor.”

Employee Ownership

From the beginning of Pronto Markets, one of my basic principles, one of my basic goals, was employee ownership of the business. Getting there, however, was complicated.”

Summary

I found the similarities between Trader Joe’s approach to retailing and the German retailer Aldi strikingly similar. Despite being on opposite sides of the world, both businesses evolved complementary retailing practices: a focus on private label, above market wages for employees, a win-win mentality and continuous innovation. It’s little wonder the Albrecht family were attracted to the business. Aldi acquired Trader Joe’s in 1979 and retained Joe as the independent manager for another ten years.

Paying staff well, empowering and sharing information with them and maintaining smallness are consistent themes across many of the successful business stories we’ve studied. When it comes to the specifics of retailing, the analogy of super-volume stores better able to provide balance is a useful one. As are the insights into economies of scale, pricing strategy, jettisoning poorly performing stores, the power of word-of-mouth marketing and the means to abolish bureaucracy through the outsourcing of non-essential functions.

Every business has its own quirks and idiosyncrasies. Identifying what they are and how they contribute to a firm’s success can provide clues in our own quest to find compounding machines; in the long run, it’s business success which determines share prices. The more businesses you study, the larger the toolkit of mental models you’ll have to apply in your investment endeavours.

Source:
Becoming Trader Joe - How I Did Business My Way & Still Beat the Big Guys,’ Joe Coulombe, Patty Civalleri. Harper Collins. 2021.

Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER



Learning from John D Rockefeller

We’ve all heard of today’s Titans; those business moguls that possess incredible net worth that rivals almost all others. Bezos, Musk, Gates, even Buffett and Munger. These are household names to both investors and businesspeople the world over. But there was one Titan that could rival them all, and indeed is regarded as the richest American to ever live. Who was it?

John D Rockefeller.

With an estimated net worth of $400b today, how did he earn that title? How did one man find himself literally crushed by money and yet was still able to retire in his mid 50’s?

He did it by owning a great business - which is key to long term investment success. The very best businesses aren’t just slightly better than their competition, they’re orders of magnitude better. Businesses which can grow their earnings and compound their investor’s capital can underwrite their share price performance for years to come - making them one of the safest and surefire ways to investment success.

At the foundation of history’s greatest businesses is usually a powerful business model. In the case of Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, it was ‘Owning the Choke-Point,’ the narrow part of an hour glass separating suppliers and consumers; the centre of the ecosystem. It’s an enduring business model that has delivered windfall profits to company shareholders for centuries.

“Rockefeller had an annual untaxed income of $58m in 1902 - or about a billion dollars in tax-free income per annum in today’s money.”

If the names Chevron, Conoco, Exxon, Mobil or Amoco ring a bell, you’re already familiar with the legacy of Rockefeller’s business, The Standard Oil Trust. An indomitable energy company whose activities spanned production, storage, transport, infrastructure, distribution and retailing that touched consumers and businesses the world over. Standard Oil has long been considered the greatest monopoly of all time.

There are a myriad of lessons for today’s investor in the history of John D Rockefeller and Standard Oil; owning the choke-point, keeping prices low, leveraging and sharing scale, embracing technology, continuously innovating, empowering employees, decentralising, aligning management, growing the market, spurning debt, encouraging internal competition and harnessing tailwinds are as relevant today as they were over a hundred years ago.

Standard Oil’s ability to consistently increase profitability and defy the notoriously boom-bust nature of its industry descended from its ownership of the choke-point; the point where oil supply was transformed into commercial products and distributed for sale.

Rockefeller started out in refining, recognising the benefits of scale, he amalgamated capacity to extract favourable terms from the railways. As refining competitors buckled, Rockefeller drove further consolidation; taking partial stakes, retaining management, and using scrip based funding ensured interests were aligned - creating emergent effects.

Rockefeller recognised the benefits in keeping prices low; the pool of potential buyers was expanded while new competition was deterred from entering the industry. Ever frugal, Rockefeller focused on costs and looked for ways to increase efficiencies; embracing new technologies, constantly innovating and leveraging economies of scale ensured competition was muted. By 1907, the Standard Oil leviathan refined 87% of the kerosene market and was more than twenty times the size of its most serious competitor.

Having come of age in an era of emerging corporate dominance and nascent regulatory oversight, Standard Oil’s anti-competitive tactics [there were many!] eventually attracted Government attention. In 1911, after forty-one years of existence, the Supreme Court ordered the Trust be dismembered into thirty-seven subsidiary companies [including those five companies mentioned above]. The post split performance of Standard Oil Trust might prove a useful guidepost given the regulatory concerns overhanging some of today’s tech titans.

By his mid-fifties, Rockefeller had retired, yet the enormous tailwind of the automotive generation would make him far richer in retirement than in his working life. An abiding self-belief that he was fulfilling God’s wish to earn and share wealth had created a predilection for charity from an early age. At the time of Rockefeller’s death, a few weeks short of his 98th birthday, his career would be defined as much by his philanthropic endeavours as it was by his business success.

Rockefeller’s incredible story has been told in the wonderful book, Titan, by Ron Chernow.

“Another book that I liked very much was ‘Titan’, the biography of the original John D. Rockefeller. That’s one of the best business biographies I have ever read. And it’s a very interesting family story, too. That was just a wonderful, wonderful book. And I don’t know anybody who’s read it who hasn’t enjoyed it. So I would certainly recommend that latest biography of John D. Rockefeller the first.” Charlie Munger

‘Titan’ is a fantastic journey into the highly complex and contradictory mind of one of the world’s shrewdest businessmen. While not an easy read (bring a dictionary!) it’s worth the effort. While barely scratching the surface of this epic biography, I’ve included some favourite extracts below.

Education and Smarts

“‘I was not an easy student, and I had to apply myself diligently to prepare my lessons.’ said Rockefeller, who described himself accurately as ‘reliable’ but not ‘brilliant.’”

“[When playing childhood games] to ensure that he won, he submitted to games only where he could dictate the rules.”

“‘I was trained from the beginning to work and save,’ Rockefeller explained. ‘I have always regarded it as a religious duty to get all I could honourably and give all I could.’”

“Once Rockefeller spent three days helping a local farmer dig potatoes for 37 cents per day. This set up an instructive contrast for the frugal boy when, soon afterward, he loaned one farmer $50 at 7 percent interest and collected $3.50 at year’s end - without a stitch of work. He was thunderstruck by the happy math, which hit him with the force of a revelation. ‘The impression was gaining ground on me that it was a good thing to let the money be my slave and not make myself a slave to money.’”

Optimism

“[Rockefeller] was a confirmed exponent of positive thinking.”

“Like other Gilded Age moguls, Rockefeller was shaped by his faith in economic progress, the beneficial application of science to industry, and America’s destiny as an economic leader.”

“[After the 1929 market crash, Rockefeller was encouraged to make a calming statement] Rockefeller issued a press release, ‘These are days when many are discouraged. In the ninety years of my life, depressions have come and gone. Prosperity has always returned, and will again.’ In his peroration, he said, ‘Believing that the fundamental conditions of the country are sound, my son and I have been purchasing sound common stocks for some days.’”

Embrace Technology

“The firm relied upon the railroad and the telegraph, the two technologies then revolutionising the American economy.”

“Standard Oil also profited immeasurably from the revolution in oil transport as barrels gave way to tank cars.”

“The railroads balked at investing in rolling stock that couldn’t also transport general freight, So Rockefeller stepped boldly into the breach… As the owner of almost all the Erie and NY Central tank cars, Standard Oil’s position grew unassailable.”

“Only belatedly did Rockefeller discern the full potential of pipelines… [Ultimately] gaining uncontested control of all major pipeline systems connecting oil wells to railroad trunk lines. ‘Practically not a barrel of oil could get to a railroad without Rockefeller’s consent… ‘Rockefeller’s firm had now advanced far beyond the railroads to more efficient pipelines.’”

Screen Shot 2021-08-26 at 4.57.27 pm.png

Understand the Business

“For Rockefeller, ledgers were sacred books that guided decisions and saved one from fallible emotion. They gauged performance, exposed fraud, and ferreted out hidden inefficiencies. In an imprecise world, they rooted things in solid empirical reality. As he chided slipshod rivals, ‘Many of the brightest kept their books in such a way that they did not actually know when they were making money on a certain operation and when they were losing.’”

Efficiency and Scale Advantages

“The proliferation of railroads enabled Rockefeller to extract discounts from them by playing one off against the other.”

“Rockefeller’s ceaseless search for even minor improvements meant that within a year refining had overtaken produce as the most profitable side of the business. Despite the unceasing vicissitudes of the oil industry, prone to cataclysmic booms and busts, he would never experience a single year of loss.”

“His tight-fisted control of details and advocacy of unbridled expansion. Daring in design, cautious in execution - it was a formula he made his own throughout his career.”

[Rockefeller] was a mastermind of many negotiations with the railroads.. Since oil was a relatively cheap, standardised commodity, transportation costs inevitably figured as a critical factor in the competitive struggle.”

Rockefeller had built gigantic plants so he could drastically slash his unit costs. Even his first partner remembered that ‘the volume of trade was what he always regarded as of paramount importance.’ Early on, Rockefeller realised in the capital-intensive refining business, sheer size mattered greatly because it translated into economies of scale.”

“Once describing the ‘foundation principle’ of Standard Oil, Rockefeller said it was the ‘theory of the originators’ .. that the larger volume the better the opportunities for the economies, and consequently the better opportunities for giving the public a cheaper product without .. the dreadful competition of the late ‘60’s ruining the business. During his career, Rockefeller cut the unit costs of refined oil almost in half, and he never deviated from this gospel of industrial efficiency.”

Emerging Effects

Rockefeller activated a self-sustaining movement as his new allies agreed to consolidate business in their localities and supervise the purchase of remaining independent refiners. A massive chain reaction was thus set in motion that rippled through both refining centres, with local businessmen acting as Rockefeller’s agents.”

Owning the Choke-Point

“The spot chosen for the new refinery tells much in miniature about Rockefeller’s approach to business… Able to ship by water or land, Rockefeller gained the critical leverage he needed to secure preferential rates on transportation - which was why he agonised over plant locations throughout his career.”

“[Rockefeller’s] overriding reason for his attachment to Cleveland: It was the hub of so many transportation networks that he had tremendous room to manoeuvre in freight negotiations.”

“Rockefeller’s first visit to Pennsylvania must have persuaded him that he had picked the right entry point to the business. Searching for oil was wildly unpredictable, whereas refining seemed safe and methodical by comparison. Before too long, he realised that refining was the critical point where he could exert maximum leverage over the industry.”

Screen Shot 2021-08-28 at 10.16.32 am.png

“Rampant speculation had so overbuilt the industry that total refining capacity in 1870 was triple the amount of crude oil being pumped. By then, Rockefeller estimated 90 percent of all refiners were operating in the red. Producers and refiners didn’t shut down operations in the expected numbers causing Rockefeller to doubt the workings of Adam Smith’s invisible hands: ‘So many wells were flowing that the price of oil kept falling, yet they went right on drilling.’ The industry was trapped in a full blown crisis of overproduction with no relief.’ Thus in 1869, Rockefeller feared his wealth might be snatched away from him. As someone who tended toward optimism, ‘seeing opportunity in every disaster’, he studied the situation exhaustively instead of bemoaning his luck. He saw that his individual success as a refiner was now menaced by industrywide failure and that it therefore demanded a systematic solution. This was a momentous insight, pregnant with consequence. Instead of just tending to his own business, he began to conceive of the industry as gigantic, interrelated mechanism and thought in terms of strategic alliances and long term planning. Rockefeller cited the years 1869 and 1870 as the start of his campaign to replace competition with cooperation in the industry. The culprit, he decided, was ‘the over-development of the refining industry,’ which had created ‘ruinous competition.’ If this fractious industry was to be made profitable and enduring, he would have to tame and discipline it. A trailblazer who improvised solutions without any guidance from economic texts, he began to envision a giant cartel that would reduce overcapacity, stabilise prices, and rationalise the industry.”

“Between February 17 and March 28 1972 - between the first rumours of the SIC [proposed agreement between Standard Oil and the railways] and the time it was scuttled - Rockefeller swallowed up twenty-two of his twenty-six Cleveland competitors… Another businessman might have started with small, vulnerable firms, building on easy victories, but Rockefeller started at the top, believing that if he could crack his strongest competitor first, it would have tremendous psychological impact.”

“In retrospect, it seems peculiar that Standard Oil - omnipotent in refining, transportation, and distribution - owned just four production properties in the early 1880’s… He had long profited from the juxtaposition of cooperation in refining and competition in production.”

“Rockefeller applied to iron ore [interests] lessons he had learned in oil, such as controlling an industry through transportation and demoralising competitors with prices too low for them to match.”

“The unity of Standard Oil partners was especially impressive given the organisation’s byzantine structure, a far-flung patchwork of firms, each nominally independent but in reality taking orders from 26 Broadway [Standard Oil head office].”

Innovation

“Scarcely dreaming that oil would ever supersede their main [agricultural produce] commodity business, they [Rockefeller & partner] considered it ‘a little side issue.’”

Rockefeller wasn’t stultified by precedent or tradition, which made it easier for him to innovate. He continued to value autonomy from outside suppliers. At first, he paid small coopers up to $2.50 for white oak barrels before he showed, in an early demonstration of scale, that he could manufacture dry, tight casks.. for less than a dollar a barrel. The Cleveland coopers bought and shipped green timber to their shops, whereas Rockefeller had the oak sawed in the woods and dried in kilns, reducing its weight and slicing transportation costs in half.”

“Regarding each plant as infinitely perfectible, Rockefeller created an atmosphere of ceaseless improvements.”

“Below the executive committee came a battery of specialised committees dedicated to transportation, pipelines, domestic trade, export trade, manufacturing, purchasing and so on. These committees standardised the quality of subsidiaries engaged in similar work, enabling managers to swap insights and align their operations… These were chosen experts who had daily sessions and study of the problems, new as well as old, constantly arising. The benefit of their research, their study, was available for each of the different concerns.”

Rockefeller created the model for the vertically integrated oil giants that would straddle the globe in the twentieth century.. By 1891 Rockefeller had gained control of a quarter of American oil production.”

Tailwinds

“The [civil] war had stimulated growth in the use of kerosene by cutting the supply of southern turpentine .. kerosene emerged as an economic staple and was primed for a furious postwar boom.”

The [civil] war markedly accelerated the timetable of economic development, promoting the growth of factories, mills, and railroads. By stimulating technological innovation and standardised products, it ushered in a more regimented economy. The world of small farmers and businessmen began to fade, upstaged by a gargantuan new world of mass consumption and production.”

Screen Shot 2021-07-10 at 1.20.22 pm.png

Europe emerged rapidly as the foremost market for American kerosene, importing hundreds of thousands of barrels yearly during the civil war. Perhaps no other American industry had such an export outlook from its inception. By 1866, fully two-thirds of Cleveland kerosene was flowing overseas.”

Low Prices

Rockefeller’s goal was to forestall potential competitors through low prices and thus minimise risk and chance disruptions.”

Standard Oil had not kept prices low out of altruism but to deter competition and ‘keep our profits on such a basis that others would not be stimulated to enter the field of competition with us.’ This belied Rockefeller’s frequent claim that his motive was to bequeath cheap oil to the working people.”

“Rockefeller was obsessed with high-volume, low cost production to maintain market share, even if he temporarily sacrificed profit margins. As he noted, ‘This fact the Standard Oil Company always kept in mind: that they must render the best service and be content with largely increasing volume of business, rather than increase the profit so as to tempt others to compete with them.’ When discussing prices with subordinates, he frequently reminded them, ‘We want to continue, in reason, that policy which will give us the largest percentage of business.’”

“In general, Standard Oil did an excellent job at providing kerosene at affordable prices. It boasted far lower unit costs than competitors and relentlessly drove down costs over the years.’ Between 1880 and 1885, its average cost of processing a gallon of crude oil went from 2.5 to 1.5 cents. [In the 20 years to 1890] the retail prices of kerosene had plunged from 23.5 cents to 7.5 cents per gallon.”

“But Standard Oil never sought a perfect monopoly because Rockefeller realised that it was politically prudent to allow some feeble competition.. A very smart monopolist, Rockefeller kept prices low enough to retain control of the market but not so low as to wipe out all lingering competition.”

“Rockefeller new that if he got greedy, other products could be substituted for kerosene, and this, too, curbed his appetite for excess profits.”

“Rockefeller keenly felt a need to freeze the industry’s size, stymie new entrants, and create an island of stability in which expansion and innovation could then occur unimpeded.”

John D Rockefeller’s NY Residence

John D Rockefeller’s NY Residence

Empowering People

Rockefeller wanted to be surrounded by trustworthy people who could inspire confidence in customers and bankers alike.”

“In the early days, Rockefeller knew the name and face of each employee.”

“Rockefeller generally received excellent reviews from employees who regarded him as fair and benevolent, free of petty temper and dictatorial airs.”

So highly did Rockefeller value personnel that during the first years of Standard Oil he personally attended to routine hiring matters.

“‘The ability to deal with people is as purchasable a commodity as sugar or coffee,’ Rockefeller once said, ‘and I pay more for that ability than for any other under the sun.”

Employees were invited to send complaints or suggestions directly to Rockefeller, and he always took an interest in their affairs. His correspondence is replete about sick or retired employees. Reasonably generous in wages, salaries, and pensions, he paid somewhat above the industry average.”

“His employees tended to revere Rockefeller and vied to please him. As one said, ‘I have never heard of his equal in getting together a lot of the very best men in one team and inspiring each man to do his best for the enterprise.”

“At first, Rockefeller tested employees exhaustively, yet once he trusted them, he bestowed enormous power upon them and didn’t intrude unless something radically misfired.”

“People who worked for Rockefeller usually found him a model of propriety and paternalistic concern.”

“Rockefeller’s decided the leading men [management co-owners] would receive no salary but would profit solely from the appreciation of their shares and rising dividends - which Rockefeller thought a more potent stimulus to work.”

“When it came to mergers, Rockefeller didn’t fight for the last dollar and tried to conclude matters cordially. Since he aimed to convert competitors into members of his cartel and often retained the original owners.”

“The creation of Standard Oil was often less a matter of stamping out competitors than of seducing them into co-operation. In general, Rockefeller was so eager to retain original management that he accumulated expensive deadwood on the payroll and, for the sake of intra-empire harmony, preferred to be conciliatory.”

One of Rockefeller’s greatest talents was to manage and motivate his diverse associates. As he said, ‘It is chiefly to my confidence in men and my ability to inspire their confidence in me that I owe my success in life.”

“Free of an autocratic temperament, Rockefeller was quick to delegate authority and presided lightly, genially, over his empire, exerting his will in unseen ways.”

The Trust’s formation created negotiable securities, and this profoundly affected the Standard Oil culture. Not only did Rockefeller urge underlings to take stock but made money abundantly available to do so. As such shareholding became widespread, it welded the organisation more tightly together, creating an esprit de corps that helped in steamrolling competitors and government investigators alike. With employees receiving huge capital gains and dividends, they converted Standard Oil into a holy crusade.”

“Rockefeller hoped the Trust would serve as a model for a new populist capitalism, marked by employee share ownership. ‘I would have every man a capitalist, every man, women and child,’ he said, ‘I would have everyone save his earnings, not squander it; own the industries, own the railroads, own the telegraph lines.”

“[Rockefeller’s] committee system was an ingenious adaption, integrating the policy of constituent companies without stripping them of all autonomy. We must remember that Standard Oil remained a co-federation and most of its subsidiaries were only partially owned. A top down hierarchical structure might have hampered local owners whom Rockefeller had promised a measure of autonomy in running their plants. The committee system galvanised their energies while providing them with general guidance. The committee encouraged rivalry among local units by circulating performance figures and encouraging them to compete for records and prizes. The point is vitally important, for monopolies spared the rod of competition, can easily lapse into sluggish giants.”

Walk The Floors

John_D._Rockefeller,_Sr.jpg

“In the first years of Standard Oil, Rockefeller regularly toured his facilities and was extremely inquisitive and observant, soaking up information and assiduously quizzing plant superintendents. In his pocket, he carried a little red notebook in which he jotted suggestions for improvements and always followed up on them.”

Financial Strength

“[Rockefeller] always moved into battle backed by abundant cash. Whether riding out downturns or coasting on booms, he kept plentiful reserves and won many bidding contests simply because his war chest was deeper.”

Standard Oil weathered the six-year depression magnificently, a fact Rockefeller attributed to its conservative financial policy and unparalleled access to bank credit and investor cash.”

“The Standard Oil Trust’s resilience during the depression of the 1890’s, its tested immunity from market fluctuations, cheered Rockefeller, who attributed this to Standard’s large cash reserves and conservative dividend policy.”

“Since the early 1880’s, Standard Oil had been self-financing, very liquid at all times, and free from the thrall of Wall Street bankers.”

Grow the Market

To inflate demand, Rockefeller sold hundred of thousands of cheap lamps and wicks and sometimes distributed them gratis with the first kerosene purchase.”

“Rockefeller also sold, almost at cost, heaters, stoves, lamps, and lanterns to widen the market. In the manner of a modern corporation, Standard Oil created demand as well as satisfied it.”

“Rockefeller continually extended the market for petroleum by-products, selling benzine and paraffin, and petroleum jelly in addition to kerosene.”

Fanaticism & Obliquity

Rockefeller derived a glandular pleasure from work and never found it cheerless drudgery. In fact, the business world entranced him as a fount of inexhaustible wonders. ‘It is by no means from money alone that these active-minded men labor - they are engaged in a fascinating occupation.’ he wrote in his memoirs. ‘The zest of the work is maintained by something better than mere accumulation of money.”

Screen Shot 2021-08-07 at 1.22.43 pm.png

“Rockefeller seemed destined to succeed as much from his fastidious work habits as from innate intelligence.”

“Even in as a young man, Rockefeller was extremely composed in crisis. In this respect, he was a natural leader; The more agitated others became, the calmer he grew.”

The passion for excellence originated with Rockefeller and radiated throughout the organisation. The ethos of Standard Oil’s operations around the world was John D Rockefeller’s personality writ large.”

Rockefeller inspired subordinates with his fanatic perfectionism.”

Humility

“Aside from the occasional courtesy call from other moguls, he hobnobbed with the same family members, old friends, and Baptist clergy who had always formed his social circle.”

“When someone expressed surprise to Rockefeller that he had not gotten a big head, he replied, ‘Only fools get swelled up over money.’ Comfortable with himself, he needed no outward validation of what he had accomplished.”

Rockefeller preferred outspoken colleagues to weak-kneed sycophants and welcomed differences of opinion so long as they weren’t personalised.”

Frugality

“From his mother he learned economy, order, thrift, and other bourgeois virtues that figured so largely in his success at Standard Oil.’”

Rockefeller engaged in strenuous rituals of austerity, and grimly sought to simplify his life and reduce his wants. He liked to say that ‘a man’s wealth must be determined by the relation of his desires and expenditures to his income. If he feels rich on ten dollars, and has everything else he desires, he really is rich.’”

“Rockefeller spent a ridiculous amount of time protesting bills both large and small.”

“[Rockefeller would say,] save when you can and not when you have to.”

“The world’s richest man never lost the thrifty boyhood habits that had made him the nonpareil of American business.”

Secrets

“Rockefeller trained himself to reveal as little as possible.”

“He learnt to cultivate a secretive style and a defiant attitude toward strangers.”

“Rockefeller never allowed his office decor to flaunt the prosperity of his business, lest it arouse unwanted curiosity.”

“Rockefeller was concerned that if he advertised his own wealth through fancy houses, he might attract investors into the refining business and only worsen the excess capacity problem.”

“Ever alert against industrial espionage, Rockefeller never wanted people to know more than was required and warned one colleague, “I would be very careful about putting someone into a position where he could learn about our business, and be troublesome to us.”

Rockefeller equated silence with strength. Weak men had loose tongues and blabbed to reporters, while prudent businessmen kept their own counsel.”

Anti-Competitive Tactics

Since the rules of the game had not yet been encoded into law, Rockefeller and his fellow industrialists had forged them in the heat of combat. With his customary thoroughness, Rockefeller had devised an encyclopaedic stock of anti-competitive weapons. Since he had figured out every conceivable way to restrain trade, rig markets, and suppress competition, all reform-minded legislators had to do was study his career to draw up a comprehensive antitrust agenda.”

Rockefeller perfected a monopoly that indisputably demonstrated the efficiency of large scale-business.”

Post Split

“During the ten years after Standard Oil’s 1911 dismantling, the assets of its constituent companies quintupled in value.”

“Those who had seen the Standard Oil dissolution as a condign punishment for Rockefeller were in for a sad surprise: It proved to be the luckiest stroke of his career. Precisely because he lost the antitrust suit, Rockefeller was converted from a mere millionaire, with an estimated net worth of $300 million in 1911, into something just short of history’s first billionaire.”

“What quickly grew apparent, however, was that Rockefeller had been extremely conservative in capitalising Standard Oil and that the split-off companies were chock full of hidden assets. Two other factors encouraged a veritable feeding frenzy in the stocks. For years, the shares of Standard Oil of New Jersey had been depressed by the antitrust litigation, but with the litigation ended, they bounced back to more normal levels. And the explosion of the automobile industry created euphoria about the endless growth prospects of the petroleum industry.”

Screen Shot 2021-08-06 at 10.52.43 am.png

Many of the newly independent companies were powerful enough to inspire fear as freestanding entities. Standard Oil of New Jersey remained the world’s largest oil company, second only to US Steel in size among American enterprises and retaining 43% of the value of the old trust.”

Philanthropy

“During his first year on the job, the young [Rockefeller] donated about 6 percent of his wages to charity, some weeks much more. ‘I have my earliest ledger and when I was only making a dollar a day I was giving five, ten, or twenty-five cents.”

“Even as a teenager, he took palpable pleasure in distributing money for charitable purposes, and he insisted that from an early date he discerned the intimate spiritual link between earning and dispensing money.”

Since his adolescence, charity had been interwoven with the fabric of his life.”

“Rockefeller argued that the rich should donate large sums to worthy causes during their lifetimes, less their money be frittered away by idle heirs.”

Rockefeller regarded his fortune as a public trust, not as a private indulgence, and pressure to dispose of it grew imperative in the 1900’s as his Standard Oil stock and other investments appreciated fantastically.”

“Rockefeller believed that certain universal principles of businesslike efficiency should apply to non-profit ventures no less than to profit-making ones.”

Never before had a rich benefactor spent his money in this area.. ‘It marked the first large public recognition of medical education and research as a rewarding subject of philanthropy.’”

“Rockefeller Foundation played an integral part in the rise of American medicine to the pinnacle of world leadership.”

“Rockefeller’s philanthropy was more orientated toward the creation of knowledge, and if it seemed more impersonal, it was also far more pervasive in its effect.”

“The fiercest robber baron had turned out to be the foremost philanthropist.”

Rockefeller established the promotion of knowledge, especially scientific knowledge, as a task no less important than giving alms to the poor or building schools, hospitals, and museums.”

Summary

Studying history’s great businesses and managers can enlighten us to factors that characterise success and help shed light on new investment opportunities. While technologies change and economies evolve, the business models that define these great companies can endure for decades, even centuries.

Since the days of Standard Oil, many businesses have achieved effective ownership of the choke-point. Even the Mafia recognised the significant benefits accruing to such a position when they controlled New York’s concrete industry in the 1980’s. Collecting a tax of 1-2 percent on every new skyscraper - if you wanted to build you had to talk to the Mob.

More recently we’ve witnessed a multitude of companies monopolising industry choke-points. The capital-light nature of some of these technology businesses with their first mover advantages, network effects, increasing returns and winner-take-all dynamics may mean even longer life cycles.

Businesses which can compound capital for decades are the holy grail of investing. Charlie Munger likes to remind us, "There are certain fundamental models out there that do not take the kind of ability that quantum mechanics requires. You just have to know a few simple things and really know them.” The choke-point is one of them.

There was only one John D Rockefeller,” concludes Chernow’s epic biography. Indeed, there was.

Reference:
Titan - The Life of John D Rockefeller, Sr,’ Ron Chernow, 1998, Random House.

Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER

Learning from Honey Bees

Screen Shot 2021-08-10 at 4.04.50 pm.png

The great investors never stop learning. Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and John Templeton all continued to learn well past the age of most people’s retirement, and despite decades of investment success, they all had the humility to recognise there was so much more to learn. More recently, the eminently successful practitioners, Howard Marks and Dan Loeb have each acknowledged their continued evolution as investors.

And the information they absorb can come from a multitude of sources. At MastersInvest we have looked at what can be learned from a variety of areas, many of which upon first reflection you would consider to be only tenuously related to investing at best. Interestingly though, often the better learning is to be found in the most unlikely of places.

“Camel's nostrils are miracles of heat exchange and water recovery engineering. We are currently looking at cuttlebone and bird skulls to help design more efficient concrete structures for office buildings. The combustion chamber in the abdomen of a bombardier beetle mixes two high explosives from fuel tanks with valves that open and close 200 times a second—it is being studied in order to develop needle-free medical injections, more efficient fuel injection systems and more effective fire extinguishers.” Michael Pawlyn

This field is called biomimicry; a discipline that looks at nature's best ideas to inspire solutions to human problems. When it comes to continuous innovation and devising strategies for success, nature has a three billion year head start on us humans. While we’ve barely scratched the surface when it comes to understanding the world we live in, it’s no reason to be despondent. The world is just far too complex and ever changing. There’s much to learn and everyday those learnings can help in all facets of life.

A recent article in The Economist titled, ‘The nose knows - Flies, worms and bees could help detect illness provides an enlightening example. While everybody knows dogs have a much better sense of smell than us, few would realise they can smell things at concentrations of one part in a trillion. That’s equivalent to a single drop in a pond the size of 20 Olympic swimming pools! While trials have shown that dogs can detect human disease - cancer, diabetes, tuberculosis, and malaria - recent research shows bees have senses just as good. Imagine such an expendable resource providing an economical, easy and non-invasive way of detecting cancer.

“The imagination of nature is far, far greater than the imagination of man. No one who did not have some inkling of this through observations could ever have imagined such a marvel as nature is.” Richard Feynman

Many great investors have found lessons in life within nature itself. The learnings that she can offer us are many and varied, and so upon recommendation by both Michael Mauboussin and James Anderson, I recently delved into an interesting book called, ‘Honeybee Democracy.’

Screen Shot 2021-08-10 at 4.21.39 pm.png

In this fascinating treatise, the world-renowned animal behaviourist Thomas Seeley delves into the life of a honey bee swarm. These tiny creatures face a life-or-death problem when choosing a new home, effectively ‘staking everything on a process that includes collective fact-finding, vigorous debate, and consensus building.

It all starts with the honey bee colony’s reproduction process. In the late spring and early summer, as a bee colony becomes overcrowded, a third of the hive stays behind and rears a new queen, while a swarm of thousands departs with the old queen to produce a daughter colony. As part of this process, a small percentage [c2%] of the hive’s worker bees, referred to as scouts, will independently search for a new nest site.

Experimental studies have found these scout bees to have an innate sense of what comprises the ideal location; a small entrance, plentiful volume for honey storage to survive winter, a suitable height above the ground, etc. Each scout bee’s job is to independently search for new locations and report them back to the hive. This communication process is achieved through a form of ‘ritual dance’ which signals both the location of the sites and the scout bee’s relative keenness on it.

Upon witnessing the dances, other scout bees will then visit the advertised sites and make their own independent assessment of the location’s merits and once again communicate this to the colony. Over time, each scout gradually reduces their marketing efforts regardless of how suitable the site is. The most keenly marketed sites attract more scouts who then inspect and, if appropriate advertise the site, creating a positive feedback loop. In contrast, lower quality sites are abandoned. When a quorum of bees is reached at the optimum site, the swarm will depart and take up residence in its new home.

An intelligent decision making process emerges from a group of less sophisticated beings; the wisdom of the hive is greater than that of any individual bee. This decision making process, honed over millions of years, almost always leads to the optimal site selection. There is no central decision maker; the queen bee plays no role in the process.

There are lessons in this decision making process that can help improve group decision making. Thomas Seeley recommended four things:

1) make sure the group is sufficiently large for the challenges it faces
2) make sure the group consists of people with diverse backgrounds and perspective
3) foster independent exploratory work by the group’s members
4) create a social environment in which the group’s members feel comfortable about proposing solutions

Every bee in the hive starts with a common purpose. The individuals and the hive’s interests are aligned - to the point where it is a life or death decision. When it comes to human decision making, ensuring a group understands the entities goals, have alignment and are incentivised appropriately, is fundamental.

The scout bees possessed an innate sense of what constitutes an optimal nest site. Extrapolating this to an investment group requires agreement on the attributes of a ‘good investment.’ Defining qualities such as a businesses’ purpose, a good culture, enduring competitive advantages, high returns on capital, management alignment and capability are perhaps, pre-requisites to consider. Filtering out unsuitable opportunities is an important part of the process.

Just as each bee doesn’t compare and contrast every site, but investigates a diverse range of sites, investment analysts should search widely for potential opportunities. Each analyst however, must be discerning in their selection process before reporting back to the group. Other analysts can then independently investigate those companies and a debate can be held about the merits of each.

While it might sound like common sense, collective groups of people have a tendency to make poor decisions. It’s uncanny the extent to which Thomas Seeley’s findings and recommendations parallel with those that the renowned Yale psychologist, Irving Janus described in his famous book, ‘Groupthink.’

Summary

One recurring trait of the great investors is their dedication to continuous learning. And its astounding from how many diverse fields they can draw life’s lessons from. At Mastersinvest we’ve drawn on teachings from great Investors, Businesses, CEO’s, Navy Captains, Psychologists, Physicists, Artists - and now - Honey Bees!

As humans, we understand just a fraction of what there is to know, which should make one optimistic about the amazing things we will achieve in the future. I’ll leave you with one of my all time favourite quotes from Ray Dalio, it connects the concept of nature and humility far better than I ever could.

“While I spend the most time studying how the realities that affect me most work—i.e., those that drive the markets and the people I deal with — I also love to study nature to try to figure out how it works because, to me, nature is both beautiful and practical. Its perfection and brilliance staggers me. When I think about all the flying machines, swimming machines, and billions of other systems that nature created, from the microscopic level to the cosmic level, and how they interact with one another to make a workable whole that evolves through time and through multi-dimensions, my breath is taken away. It seems to me that, in relation to nature, man has the intelligence of a mould growing on an apple—man can’t even make a mosquito, let alone scratch the surface of understanding the universe.” Ray Dalio, Principles 2011.

Source:
Honeybee Democracy,' Thomas Seeley, 2010, Princeton University Press.

Further Reading:
Avoiding Groupthink,’ Investment Masters Class, 2016.

Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER


The Good Life Podcast

I recently had the pleasure of chatting to Sean Murray from ‘The Good Life.’ We talked about all things investing including quality companies, powerful business models, developing a multi-disciplinary mindset and the common threads evident amongst the very best investors, CEOs and businesses.

I’m a big fan of Sean’s work, be sure to check out his other interviews with the likes of Robert Cialdini, Annie Duke, Michael Abrashoff, Morgan Housel and William Green.

I hope you enjoy the episode





Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER


Learning from Chick-fil-A’s S.Truett Cathy

The business world is diverse, with companies operating in a variety of industries, some of which are more complex and difficult to compete with than others.

In the next few years, the world’s leading semiconductor company will release a chip with almost 300 million transistors per square millimetre! Hard to copy? Unquestionably. How about a fast food outlet selling chicken sandwiches? On the face of it, not that hard to compete with. You can replicate the ingredients, the store fit-outs, the locations, the marketing and the packaging - but the one secret ingredient you might struggle to copy is the culture.

Consider Chick-fil-A, the fast food business that’s taken over America. A private company, Chick-fil-A is now the third largest chain behind McDonalds and Starbucks. In 2019, it generated more than $US11 billion in revenue, signifying 52 consecutive years of sales growth. When it comes to sales-per-store, no major US fast food chain comes close; the average store turns over more than a Burger King, KFC, Domino’s and Subway combined. And the stores are closed on Sunday!

On the basis of sales per store you’d expect Chick-fil-A could achieve a premium for the franchises it sells. It costs more than $US1 million to open a McDonald’s, a Burger King, or a KFC restaurant, and yet opening a Chick-fil-A restaurant costs just $US10,000.

Charlie Munger’s counsel to understand Chick-fil-A and it’s incredible success would be to ask his favourite question, ‘What in hell is going on here?

Luckily for us, Chick-fil-A’s founder, S. Truett Cathy, addressed just such a question in his book, ‘How did you do it, Truett?' The answer aligns with another of Charlie’s mental models, ‘businesses that go ridiculously far in maximising and/or minimising one or a few variables tend to have the winning systems.’

“I’d recommend a book by S. Truett Cathy who started Chick-fil-A, the chicken burger chain. The book, ‘How did you do it Truett?,’ was really good. I've been hoping that Chick-fil-A becomes a public company since then.” Francois Rochon

Legendary customer service lies at the heart of Chick-fil-A’s success. There’s even such a thing as Chick-fil-A memes; Parodies of the lengths employees will go to delight their customers. A few years ago a video of a 20-year-old Chick-fil-A worker went viral, ‘The way you interact with people really matters, it transforms their day,’ the eager employee later explained. Termed ‘second-mile-service,’ staff have been known to change a customer’s tyre or drop their lost keys or cell phone home, earning the company the top spot amongst fast food chains in the American Customer Satisfaction Index in each of the last seven years.

Source: QSR 2020 Ranking the Top 50 Fast-Food Chains

Source: QSR 2020 Ranking the Top 50 Fast-Food Chains

The late S. Truett Cathy understood that a business has a higher purpose than just making money. From the humble beginnings of a single restaurant, S. Truett Cathy rode the tailwind of America’s urbanisation, living his religious values, empowering his franchisees, listening to his customers, encouraging innovation, embracing crises, exceeding his patron’s expectations and taking a long term view. In the process he created a multi-billion dollar fast food enterprise.

S. Truett Cathy has shared his experiences and wisdom in a collection of short business books. Highly engaging, the lessons of ‘servant leadership,’ managing growth, selecting and valuing employees, delivering quality and setting the tone from the top are but a few of the mental models to be gleaned. Chick-fil-A’s unconventional approach to franchising provides a bounty of lessons in itself.

I’ve include some of my favourite S. Truett Cathy quotes below.

Education and Smarts

“As a young boy I had a speech impediment so severe I could not pronounce my own name.”

“When I was in school, I never was an achiever. I wasn’t able to make the chorus, I could never play a musical instrument, I didn’t excel in sports, and I certainly didn’t excel academically. But I had established some good work habits and had an attitude that has been very beneficial to me.”

Keep it Simple

“Every day, we remember the Chick-fil-A Chicken Sandwich is really a simple concept. We take advantage of our biggest opportunities when we keep it simple, focusing on serving great tasting food in a clean, wholesome environment with great customer service. That hasn’t changed in the sixty-one years I’ve been in the restaurant business.”

IMG_0446 (1) 4.jpeg

Customers

Be kind to your customers. It’s the key to success… You can’t beat the Golden Rule as a business philosophy: Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.”

The customer is always king. He or she is always right. You know the kind of service you like to have from people behind the counter. That’s the kind of service we want you to offer the customers.”

Listening to my customers - One of the first things I learned in the restaurant business was to find out what my customers wanted then provide it to them.”

“The key to succeeding with a paper route - and the restaurant business, I would learn later on - is to take care of the customer.”

“Ever since I was a teenager delivering newspapers, I have tried not to lose a single customer. I treated each one like the most important person in the world, and delivered each paper as if I was delivering it to the front door of the Governor’s Mansion.”

“The customer is always right, and I always oblige the customer.”

Courtesy is cheap to provide, and it pays great dividends.”

“The bottom line is, the customer standing right in front of you is funding your paycheck, and perhaps your future. Treat that one person right. Give him or her all of your attention for the moment. Have a servant’s attitude. The customer is always right, even when he or she is wrong.”

We are building success one loyal customer at a time, and we make sure that everyone who comes in leaves with the intention of coming back.”

We outperform other quick-service restaurant chains because of the courtesy and kindness we offer our customers. We advertise on radio, television, and in newspapers, but none of that takes the place of having customers as our cheerleaders.”

Servant Spirit

S Truett Cathy [Source: Chick-fil-A]

S Truett Cathy [Source: Chick-fil-A]

“To often these days, especially in retail situations, when I say, ‘Thank you,’ the response is ‘No problem.' Or worse, just a grunt. It seems the best I can hope for is, ‘You’re welcome’. I asked our Operators, team members, and corporate headquarters to say, ‘My pleasure’ whenever someone thanked them. The purpose was not just to change the words we say, but to remind those we serve, as well as ourselves, of the ‘servant spirit’ and ‘second-mile’ orientation we are continually building into our business.”

Second-Mile service is about the heart, and it goes above and beyond the requirements, making sure customers not only get what they expect, but something more that makes them say, ‘Wow!’ Almost everyday we hear about a team member helping change a customer’s tire or making an extra effort to return lost keys or a cell phone that was left behind.”

“You can do a lot of things short of giving away food to express hospitality, but
the most important thing is to feel in your heart the desire to serve.”

Competitive Advantages

“Chick-fil-A is what it is today because of its product, people, and purpose.”

Businesses don’t succeed or fail. People do.”

“I believe the reason Chick-fil-A is so successful is simple - we care much more than our competitors. Being successful requires more than just unlocking the doors every day. Our philosophy of ‘doing the right thing and doing things right’ is hardly ever the easiest solution. It is, however, always the best solution.'“

Source: Chick-fil-A

Source: Chick-fil-A

“Because almost all Chick-fil-A franchised Operators have only one restaurant, they’re in the store virtually every day and have the best interest of their particular restaurant in mind. They care about the quality of people on their team and the quality of the food they serve. Better people and better food means higher sales and higher profits for the Operator.”

Two things set our people apart: We’re happy to be here, and we have the spirit of a servant. In our restaurant, both of those feelings must come from me, the Operator.” Charles Gibson, Chick-fil-A Operator

“Today we go out of our way to keep people from being able to figure out our product. Our company makes our seasonings, and another makes the breading.”

Raising prices for me has always been the absolute last resort - after we squeeze out every bit of waste we can.”

“Although we’ve been closing my places of business on Sunday for more than forty years [in deference to S. Truett Cathy’s religious beliefs], I keep hearing the same comments and questions. I don’t believe we’ve lost any sales in the long run. In the shopping malls we usually generate more sales per square foot in six days than many others do in seven. We also believe that by giving employees that free day, we attract the kind of people who want Sunday off because of their own convictions.”

Associate with Quality People

Associate yourselves only with those people you can be proud of whether they work for you or you work for them.”

You’ll be the same person five years from now as you are today except for the books you read and the people you associate yourself with. I hope I’m not the same person today that I was five years ago.”

Hiring & Firing

“If you really aren’t interested in serving others, you don’t need to be in the restaurant business in the first place. We like to say we recruit smiles. You can’t teach a sour person to be joyful.”

Source: Chick-fil-A

Source: Chick-fil-A

A good attitude is one of the best guarantees of success. A less qualified individual with a good attitude would be more welcomed at my company than a highly talented individual with a bad attitude.”

“From the beginning, and until only recently, I interviewed every new candidate. I knew all the Operators by name, and most of their spouses and children.”

“I never want to fire someone simply to save money. I want everyone who works at Chick-fil-A to feel secure that we will not resort to layoffs because we have overextended.”

“We don’t hire people because they need a job. We hire people because we need them. We must be very selective... The wrong person working just ten hours a week can run off a lot of customers.”

The biggest impact on service is our people.”

“Motivation expert Zig Zigler has said that among the top twenty-five attributes companies look for in an executive, not one of them deals with experience. Character traits are most important. Everything else can be learned.”

Hire Better People

“When you get to this size, you grow through the talent of others - people I have attracted through the years who make my job look easy. I divided the tasks among other people more skilled in their areas than I am, and I trust them to do the job well.”

Trust

Loyalty begins with trust. My policy has always been to select trustworthy people - then trust them!

Success in any relationship or endeavour begins with trust. It’s amazing how much you can accomplish when you trust the people around you and they trust you.

A lot of what we do is trust. The Chick-fil-A franchise Operator Agreement is based on trust. It’s the biggest key to our success.”

We trust our Operators to make good decisions - and they do.”

Obliquity

“It’s an axiom of business that if you help people get what they want, you’ll get what you want.”

Profits should be the score of the game, not the name of the game.”

What counts in this business is not how much money we make or how much chicken we sell. What counts is the difference we make in the lives of others.”

Reciprocation

“We would be loyal to [the Operators], treating them as we wished to be treated, and they would reciprocate. They did. Fewer than five percent of our Operators leave the chain in any given year. Other chains tout their ‘knowledge management’ with their computer and communications systems; we manage knowledge by keeping people - and their knowledge - in the organisation.”

I look for ways to do special things for customers. Like when I see a customer three or four times in the same week, I go to their table and give them a ‘Be Our Guest’ card. I figure if they’re spending fifteen or twenty dollars a week, I’ll give them a free sandwich. All of this fits into the Chick-fil-A philosophy that I first experienced when I went to work for the company.” Chick-fil-A Employee

Value Employees

The most important people in this business are our employees. Some people will say customers are most important, but if we create the right atmosphere where our employees enjoy their jobs and have opportunities for growth, they will get a kick out of their work. Then that feeling will spill right over to the customer.”

“Studies show that between 65% and 80% of working people do not like what they are doing for a living. That’s a sad fact because a person spends one-third of his life on the job.”

Operators

We do all we can to make our Operators successful because if they’re successful, so is the company.”

The most important decision we make at Chick-fil-A is selecting restaurant Operators who care about others, who can motivate their team, and who understand how to run a business. Our franchise Operators determine the success of the chain. They’re the ones meeting customers and selling chicken sandwiches.”

The Operator selection process can be lengthy, sometimes as long as a year, because we want to be certain before we make a franchise commitment that we believe the relationship will last.”

Our relationship with our Operators begins with the assumption that we have the same goals and we all plan to succeed. Our operators own their own business, but our relationship is extremely close.”

“It’s easy to apply for a position as an Operator of a Chick-fil-A Unit, but hard to qualify... We don’t select or even seriously consider an Operator or a member of staff unless we want the individual to be with us until one of us retires or dies. Because of that, Chick-fil-A has one of the lowest turnover rates in the restaurant industry.”

“Two requirements of being an Operator are that the Operator run only one restaurant and must be on-site to manage it.”

We supply the initial capital for the restaurant, so we don’t have to limit our search for Operators to people with high personal net worth. The only money required is $5,000 refundable initial capital commitment. To fuel the kind of growth we desire, we need eager, talented, honest, dependable, people-orientated Operators who are hungry to succeed in the restaurant business.”

“The first question most people ask about our [Operator] agreement is, ‘How could you afford such a generous arrangement with Operators?’ The answer is obvious. We love it when an Operator earns a lot of money because that means we are also earning a lot of money from the restaurant. The more successful we make the Operator, the more successful we are.

c594cca4687a530baf2640d42ab0bd04.jpg

We are placing our reputation and our future in the hands of one individual. Because we build the Unit and then lease it to the Operator, the ability and the character of the individual are more important than his money.”

“The more we can foster the feeling that we are a group of people working together, depending on each other, and not just bound by a franchise agreement, the more likely we are to be loyal to each other.”

“In my first meeting with a potential Operator, I explain that our commitment is going to be like a marriage, with no consideration given to divorce. We’re much more careful about selecting Operators when we know we cant easily get rid of them.”

Our lifelong commitment to the success and well-being of Operators has resulted in loyal Operators who then experience tremendous loyalty from their team members - and, in turn, their customers - especially when compared to the rest of the quick-service restaurant business.”

We have created this ‘loyalty effect’ at Chick-fil-A through a unique relationship with our Operators.”

The Operator is the CEO, manager, president, and treasurer of his or her own business. I haven’t changed the basic agreement with Operators since my first Chick-fil-A restaurant opened in 1967.”

“Our Operators work closely with us, but they are the owners of their own business.”

Chick-fil-A - Closed Sunday

Chick-fil-A - Closed Sunday

“Another key to Operator loyalty lies in our decision to allow each Operator to have only one restaurant… A few Operators believe that because they have trained their staff well, their presence isn’t needed. But I’ve found that team members will always perform better when the Operator is on site.”

“We have a saying around the office, ‘An Operator gets the people he or she deserves to have.’ Good people attract good people.”

“We had our design people spend a lot of time in the field talking with Operators and seeing how they ran their business. Experienced operators know better than anybody how to serve people quickly and efficiently.”

We screen very carefully our Unit Operators. Therefore, we assign our unit realising that this is the most important decision we make. We can decorate it beautifully and out the best equipment in there are prepare the very best food, but if we don’t have the very best Operator, we have blown the whole thing.”

“Another question we often hear is, ‘Why don’t you offer typical franchises where the franchisee makes a substantial investment?’ The answer is similar to my answer regarding a public offering, and can be found in our needs. A restaurant company needs two things to succeed, capital and talent. Franchise restaurant corporations raise capital by selling the rights - usually for hundreds of thousands of dollars - to open a restaurant to people who have already succeeded in business and are looking for a good investment. Sometimes the franchise owner will work directly in the restaurant, but most of the ones I have met are looking to own several units from which they draw income. They aren’t interested in actually wearing a uniform and serving customers. Restaurant magazines are full of articles discussing franchisees blaming franchisers for their lack of success, when the problem is their own lack of time in the restaurant.”

Commitment

“I want everyone at Chick-fil-A to know that we don’t build and open restaurants just so we can close them if they don’t work out. We must be careful about how we build them, where we put them, and who we put in there to run them. Anybody can open a restaurant. All it takes is money. But keeping one open is what makes the difference.”

Family

We felt like a family, and in many cases we actually had family members working together.”

When we have team members working together like a family, they extend that feeling to their customers.”

“When Paul Richards was a manager of the Dwarf House [S Truett Cathy’s first restaurant], he mailed out about four hundred birthday cards with handwritten notes to customers every year. He visited them when they were sick and sent food when there was an illness or death. Customers knew we cared. That’s really the key: caring.”

Take Risks & Accept Contrarian Views

“We don’t want to scare people into thinking they can’t take any risk or push limits of their responsibility, or we’ll end up with a bunch of timid Operators. We encourage people to think and to experiment under reasonable circumstances.”

I want people who work with me to feel completely relaxed when they take a viewpoint opposite mine. I respect their opinions - I would not have hired them if I didn’t - and I want them to feel my acceptance and appreciation for them when we disagree. When you have a dynamic atmosphere, you never know where great ideas will come from. They just come.”

We prosper by debating ideas and voicing our opinions.”

Ideas for new products come from Operators, staff members, and customer surveysWe introduce new products only after letting our customers try it out in test conditions in a few restaurants throughout the change.”

Appearances

Source: Chick-fil-A

Source: Chick-fil-A

“Customers can choose from many places to eat. They are quick to pick the most appealing restaurant, the the appearance of the people who work in it can affect such decisions favourable or unfavourably.”

“We concentrate on making sure the back of the restaurant is manicured nicely. Our drive-thru customers spend a lot of time back there, and if they see that area is clean and pleasant, they can be assured that everything is clean inside as well.”

Humility & Tone from the Top

Everyone from the Operator to the newest hire must be willing to do any job in the restaurant: prepare food, wash dishes, mop floors, clean restrooms. I was the janitor at the Dwarf House, and it’s still my job to pick up paper on the floor, or whatever else needs attention.”

When top executives demonstrate that they don’t mind doing the dirty jobs, team members understand that every job is important.”

Incentives

“Each year Chick-fil-A brings all our Operators and their spouses together for a business seminar in an exotic resort complex. Through Chick-fil-A’s ‘Symbol of Success’ program we give a new car to an Operator to use for one year if sales in his or her unit increase by 40% or more in one year. If that Operator shows at least a 40% increase the second year, he or she gets the title to the car. We awarded forty-six in 1984 alone. Other incentive awards for Operators include trips, merchandise and cash bonuses.”

Consistency

“I tell our Operators at Chick-fil-A Units today: Consistency is one of the most important aspects of the food business. You can even build your business on bad coffee as long as your’e consistent. Customers are very sensitive to change.”

“We hope customers visiting anywhere in the country know the Chick-fil-A Chicken Sandwich they order will taste just like the ones they eat back home. Few things are more important that consistency in the food business.”

Word of Mouth & Retaining Customers

Word of mouth in the food business is more important than any other source of advertising. It’s better to maintain your present customers than to spend a lot of time and expense replacing them with new ones.”

Imitate

“Business often remained on my front burner even when we were traveling on family trips… We made lots of stops along the way. Whenever I saw a fast-food restaurant I hadn’t visited, I stopped, went in, and observed their operations, taking away ideas on what was or wasn’t working.”

Evolve & Adapt

“Many successful people I know set magnificent goals for themselves, then let nothing stand in the way of their achievement. I don’t engage in that kind of long-range planning. Instead, I leave myself and our company available to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.”

Frugal

“Some people think I’m a penny pincher today, but when you grow up in a family and in a time where every dollar must be stretched as far as it will go, you learn to watch where your money goes.”

Managing Growth

To succeed we knew we had to start small and grow slowly. This is where so many start-up companies today make their mistake. Dreamers dream big, and they want to reach their goals quickly. There’s nothing wrong with big dreams. But my experience tells me that we’re more likely to reach our dreams if we climb with care and caution, putting one foot in front of the other.”

Source: Chick-fil-A

Source: Chick-fil-A

In all my years in the restaurant business, I have tried never to overextend. I’m satisfied stepping from one plateau to the next, making sure we’re doing every thing right before moving on. Financial experts tell me our strength would allow us to open restaurants at a much more aggressive pace than our current seventy per year. But I’d rather have seventy restaurants operating efficiently and professionally than 500 restaurants where half are run well and the others are not.”

The most common reason companies fail, I believe, is their desire to grow faster than they can manage. This can be particularly true with companies that make a public offering and find themselves staring at a pile of money. All they want to do is grow. But you have to digest growth as you go.”

Debt

New units are built from the profits of Chick-fil-A. We try not to go into debt to expand.”

“Companies may set goals, and if all goes according to plan everything works out well. But if they have extended themselves to the limits of their finances and their talent, even a slight economic downturn can force them to lay off employees to salvage the company. You don’t build a good reputation by discharging people, but rather by developing people.”

I am conservative in the amount of money I will borrow to build a new restaurant. I also prefer to own the real estate under our restaurants rather than to lease. The initial investment is greater, but when the loan is repaid, the advantage is clear.”

Private Company

“Chick-fil-A is now one of the largest privately owned restaurant companies in the country. Many others have achieved our size by offering ownership in their companies to the public. We have resisted and will continue to resist that status.”

“In the early years we did not offer stock for sale because I could not predict how fast the company might grow or what dividends we might pay to anyone who might invest. Additionally, I’m afraid the directors, if we had a bad year, might tell me I’m old fashioned and fire me. Too often, Wall Street analysts are more interested in profits than they are in principles and people.”

Our system puts the cash in the hands of the Operators today, instead of sometime down the road with a lump sum, and encourages them to earn all they can, save all they can, and give all they can right now. Their focus is on today’s customer.”

“Stanley Marcus, retired chairman of Neiman Marcus, said, ‘A public corporation concentrates on profits while a private company concentrates on its people’. By operating one of the country’s largest privately held restaurant chains, Chick-fil-A has been able to do a lot of things that would not be allowed by others in the industry. For example, as a public company, we could not easily give away brand-new Lincoln automobiles, sponsor annual business seminars in posh resorts, offer $1,000 scholarships to our young people, or help support Winshape Centre and Berry College, to name a few projects.”

Letter from Warren Buffett

Letter from Warren Buffett

Community Engagement & Ecosystem

Our people contribute to their community in ways they could not if they were associated with any other company. They feel a sense of significance.”

Another key to success in our little corner of the world is community involvement. If somebody calls and asks for something, we give them something. And if churches and schools don’t call us, we call them, and make the offer.”

“It seems the more we give to our community, the more customers support us.”

“The pure and simple bottom line at Chick-fil-A is a commitment to people, and that’s the staff, operators, crew, and the public. From the outset we wanted to have a positive influence on all who came in contact with Chick-fil-A.”

Summary

Today’s business landscape is changing at the fastest rate in history. Technology advancements have disrupted businesses and competitive moats have been filled like never before. Yet, there are some things that haven’t changed and likely won’t. Customers will always enjoy exceptional service and they’ll reciprocate, it’s human nature.

Almost forty years ago, the research underlying Tom Peters’ book, ‘In Search of Excellence’ found, ‘The intensity of customer orientation that exists within top performing companies seems to be one of the best kept secrets in American business.’ Warren Buffett’s exposure to countless businesses across a multitude of different industries has made him conscious of the value in delighting customers, “Don’t just satisfy your customers – delight them .. Anybody who has happy customers is likely to have a pretty good future.” It’s little surprise Buffett expressed an interest in acquiring Chick-fil-A [see letter above].

When it comes to finding great businesses, being able to filter out the noise and identify the key variables that won’t change is hugely valuable. The same ingredients that have delivered Chick-fil-A success for more than 70 years, are likely to deliver success in the future. When ‘delighting the customer’ defines a business’ culture, the results can be extraordinary. That’s how S. Cathy Truett did it.




Sources:
How did you do it Truett?” S Truett Cathy, 2007.
Eat Mor' Chikin - Doing Business the Chick-fil-A Way,’ S.Truett Cathy, 2002.
It’s Easier to Succeed Than to Fail,” S.Truett Cathy, 1989.


Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER




Lights Out - Learning from GE

MastersInvest has spent a lot of time studying businesses and business leaders that have been successful, some remarkably so. Those companies that have forged not only stellar reputations in their fields, but also those who have succeeded in industries where success is not a common commodity. And whilst a solid working knowledge of these success stories is vital for any investor to know, its also incredibly valuable to look at the other side of the coin - those businesses that have failed.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have long espoused the benefits of studying failure. Armed with the foresight of what not to do can help an investor avoid the key risk to any investment program - the permanent loss of capital. With this insight in mind, and having read a short synopsis in Bill Gates Summer Reading List, I looked forward to reading the book, ‘Lights Out - Pride, Delusion and the Fall of General Electric’ by Ted Mann and Thomas Gryta. An easy read, the book details the multitude of problems which beset GE coupled with a cornucopia of red flags to look out for in your own investments.

“I like to study failure… we want to see what has caused businesses to go bad." Warren Buffett

Once a storied industrial leader, the last few decades have been nothing short of brutal for GE. While a toxic culture of ‘making the numbers’ seemed ingrained at the time Jack Welch handed the reigns to Jeff Immelt, Immelt’s sixteen year term atop GE earned him a scathing review. Characterised with an incessant focus on the share price, always coveting Wall Street’s admiration, ignorant of tail risks, obstructive to feedback, turning a blind eye to questionable accounting and an absence of humility were the hallmarks of a failed leadership tenure. If the expression, ‘an institution is the lengthened shadow of one man’ rings true, this isn’t a book for Immelt’s trophy cabinet.

Gates Notes - ‘5 Ideas for Summer Reading’  2021

Gates Notes - ‘5 Ideas for Summer Reading’ 2021

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the company’s travails were strikingly at odds with the traits that have defined the great businesses we’ve reviewed in the past. Below I’ve called out some red flags and accompanying lessons from GE. Notwithstanding the accounting misconduct, most of the tell-tale signs of trouble are qualitative and behavioural in nature.

S&P500 [grey] vs General Electric [blue] Normalised - 2000 - 2021 [Source: Bloomberg]

S&P500 [grey] vs General Electric [blue] Normalised - 2000 - 2021 [Source: Bloomberg]

Financials Above Purpose

In the superb book, ‘In Search of Excellence,’ Tom Peters noted, “We found that companies whose only articulated goals were financial did not do nearly as well financially as companies that had broader sets of values.

“The Growth Playbook [was] a grueling annual examination of GE’s eight major business leaders. It was here that GE hammered out targets for sales and profits, setting the underlying assumptions for the financial estimates it would give investors. Under Immelt, the point of the exercise was determining how his executives would get to their financial targets - though not how they would determine what output the business would produce as a starting point. This practice had been ingrained at GE from the days of Welch.” Lights Out

“The problems stemmed not from any single action but from the practices of accountants on staff at the dozen or so plants in the division. They’d reported their numbers by working backward: starting with a profit target and then working out what their sales figures would have to show to get there, rather than simply running the business and reporting their results to headquarters every three months.” Lights Out

The best business leaders have long recognised a company’s share price is a function of long term business performance. Solve for the latter, and in time, the share price will look after itself. At GE the financials dictated strategy.

“Investors and executives need to realise that the creation of shareholder value is an outcome — not an objective.” Terry Smith

“Stock price is an outcome. You can’t manage the outcome. You manage the inputs.” James Gorman

“We want corporate management to solve for value creation, not security price.” Dan Loeb

“Companies that focus on their stock price will eventually lose their customers. Companies that focus on their customers will eventually boost their stock price. This is simple, but forgotten by countless managers.” Morgan Housel

“When it comes to discussing a company’s strategy, it is alarming how frequently one finds confusion about what a strategy actually is. Often a CEO mistakes a short-term target, say an earnings per share target or a return on capital threshold, with a strategy.” Marathon Asset Management

“Some would claim that maximising profits is a business’s ultimate purpose. Yet it is often when companies become exclusively profit orientated – and explicitly define this as their objective - that things go wrong. The end result of what investors seek, good shareholder returns, is invariably better achieved obliquely.” Nick Train

“An annual report with a numbers obsession speaks volumes about what’s important.” Marianne Jennings

Jeff Immelt’s strategy was directed with reference to the share price; providing guidance, smoothing earnings, setting optimistic long term EPS targets, undertaking acquisitions and divestments to appease Wall Street, appealing to big investors and ‘making the numbers’ regardless of cost. All are misguided short cuts.

Focus on Share Price

Of all the books on great businesses I’ve read, I can’t recall one where a company’s share price featured so prominently. Great businesses are all about empowering people, innovating, delighting customers, tolerating mistakes, focusing on the long term, upholding values, embracing change and remaining humble, to name but a few - none of which rated barely a mention.

“The stock market didn’t appreciate what GE was really worth. And it was driving Jeff Immelt crazy. His handlers claimed that he didn’t watch the daily movement in the shares, but his actions betrayed him. The stock market was the ultimate scoreboard tracking his performance.” Lights Out

‘The stock is currently trading at one of the lowest earnings multiples in a decade,’ Immelt wrote in his annual letter to investors in early 2006. ‘Investors decide the stock price, but we love the way GE is positioned. We know it is time to go big!’ he wrote.” Lights Out

“Always aware of the stock’s reflection on his leadership, Immelt was trapped in a waking nightmare.” Lights Out

“GE’s stock price and its miserable performance were a constant cloud over Immelt’s head.” Lights Out

A management’s obsession with their share price is often a tell for investors; as recognised by some of the world’s best.

“Today, it seems to be regarded as the duty of CEOs to make the stock go up. This leads to all sorts of foolish behaviour.” Charlie Munger

“[The managers we have owned] don’t have a screen in their office showing them the price of their stock. And lots of them do. Sometimes you find it in the lobby of a company and sometimes you find it on the CEO’s desk. That doesn’t interest us. Their focus is on the wrong thing, in our judgement.” Chuck Akre

“We’ve been suspicious of companies that place a whole lot of emphasis on the price of their stock. When we see the price of a stock posted in the lobby of the headquarters or something, things like that make us nervous.” Warren Buffett

“A worrying sign is a CEO with a subscription to Bloomberg as this may indicate an unhealthy interest in stock prices and short-term news flow to the detriment of long-term thinking.” Marathon Asset Management

Quarterly Earnings

The best investors have a long-term orientation, focused on where a business might be in three to five years or more, rather than next quarter’s result. GE spent their time trying to please short-term investors.

“We do not worry about the stock price in the short run, and we do not worry about quarterly earnings. Our mindset is that we consistently build the company — if you do the right things, the stock price will take care of itself.” Jamie Dimon

“The investor wanting maximum results should favour companies with a truly long-range outlook concerning profits.” Phil Fisher

“We really think that an undue focus on quarterly earnings, not only is probably a bad idea for investors, but we think it’s a terrible idea for managers. If I had told our managers that we would earn three dollars and 17 1/2 cents for the quarter, you know, they might do a little fudging in order to make sure that we actually came out at that number.” Warren Buffett

Business Results Aren’t Linear

Smart investors recognise the business environment and economy are not conducive to a perfect earnings trajectory. GE failed to understand this, deploying unethical and in some case illegal short cuts to deliver.

“GE executives have acknowledged that they worked to make sure earnings were growing in a nice smooth trajectory.” Lights Out

“When Fortune’s Carol Loomis once told Welch that the smoothing practice was terrible, he vehemently disagreed with her. ‘What investor would want to buy a conglomerate like GE unless its earnings were predictable?” Lights Out

“The concept of managing earnings, another wonderful numbers term that infiltrates the numbers-pressure culture that leads to ethical collapse. It’s not cooking the books, it is managing earnings. A numbers obsession finds employees and officers not managing strategically but manipulating numbers for results.” Marianne Jennings

“Be suspicious of companies that trumpet earnings projections and growth expectations. Businesses seldom operate in a tranquil, no surprise environment, and earnings simply don't advance smoothly. Charlie and I not only don't know today what our businesses will earn next year we don't even know what they will earn next quarter. We are suspicious of those CEOs who regularly claim they do know the future and we become downright incredulous if they consistently reach their declared targets, Managers that always promise to ‘make the numbers’ will at some point be tempted to make up the numbers.” Warren Buffett

Businesses do not meet expectations quarter after quarter and year after year. It just isn’t in the nature of running businesses. And, in our view, people that predict precisely what the future will be are either kidding investors, or they’re kidding themselves, or they’re kidding both.” Warren Buffett

Promoting the Stock

“In the [2015] annual letter, Immelt wrapped up his lecture on the limitless superlatives of GE with an awkward plea to major institutional investors.. ‘We have delivered for you in the last five years. But we are still under-owned by big investors. In this time of uncertainty, why not GE?’ he wrote, like a heartbroken lover begging for reconciliation. ‘We have a ton of cash that can protect you,’ he added.” Lights Out

“[At the annual Electrical Products Group conference for industrial investors and executives] Immelt, as he had done before, argued that investors had GE all wrong and were mispricing a stock that should have been above $30 a share.” Lights Out

“We suspect that business leaders who are busy promoting themselves or their stock are not properly focused on running their companies. We go out of our way to look for management that cares about shareholder value but doesn't hype its stock.” Marathon Asset Management

“People who have a proclivity for announcing how valuable their stock is, are I think, people who you ought to be very cautious of.” Warren Buffett

Fancy Predictions

“As the [2016] year came to an end, Immelt planted a flag that would define the rest of his career: he declared that GE would produce at least $2 of profit per share in 2018. It was an unusually long-term projection, and its meaning was undeniable to Immelt.” Lights Out

“It was wishful thinking at best that GE could deliver the $2 of earnings Immelt had promised.” Lights Out

“Charlie and I tend to be leery of companies run by CEOs who woo investors with fancy predictions. A few of these managers will prove prophetic – but others will turn out to be congenital optimists, or even charlatans. Unfortunately, it’s not easy for investors to know in advance which species they are dealing with.” Warren Buffett

Candor and Bad News

“Faced with the prospect of telling their tempestuous CEO that the new product was a disaster, the managers chose another route. They massaged the numbers.” Lights Out

“There was no market for hard truths or bad news. Not as far as the guy at the top was concerned.” Lights Out

“It was better to figure out a better way to deliver the bad news, or make it go away somehow, than to present it to Immelt straight.” Lights Out

Great businesses are tolerant of mistakes. Great Leadership recognises businesses grow through trial and error. When problems aren’t addressed they fester and the eventual impact on a business can be disastrous.

“Almost every business has problems, and we’d just as soon the manager would tell us about them. We would like that in the businesses we run. In fact, one of the things, we give very little advice to our managers, but one thing we always do say is to tell us the bad news immediately. And I don’t see why that isn’t good advice for the manager of a public company. Over time, you know, I’m positive it’s the best policy.” Warren Buffett

Bad news concealed over time doesn’t get any better. See those studies again: companies with the most candid disclosures in their financial statements perform better over the long term and have higher share prices.Companies that put their current positions and performance right out there for investors and analysts to study are the companies to put your money in.” Marianne Jennings

A Culture of Making the Numbers

“The pressure to perform inside GE is omnipresent, and missed goals can be fatal, a tradition true at all levels of the company.” Lights Out

“Management expectation about the sales growth and profit they should be able to hit didn’t reflect the dim reality of the market, team members told Steve Bolze [CEO GE Power] and Paul McElhinney, the head of the unit that administers the service contracts. Vocal complaints about management’s view diverging from the reality of the market, or from basic math, were common among lower level Power executives. When the concerns were raised to leaders like McElhinney, they were stopped cold... ‘Get on board,’ McElhinney said. ‘We have to make the numbers.’” Lights Out

“When Immelt took over the Plastics operation, the previous management hadn’t been playing it straight. Under pressure from Welch, the division had stretched to make the numbers, including misreporting inventory figures to reduce the cost of goods sold.” Lights Out

“Welch would argue that he pushed his underlings to produce results, not fraud. But even if the CEO didn’t bend the rules himself, Welch cultivated an environment of pressure that incentivised people to do just that.” Lights Out

“If you couldn’t do the job and hit your targets, they all knew, Jack Welch would get someone else who could.” Lights Out

“Jeff Immelt’s assignment was clear: keep the earnings machine of GE humming steadily along, as it had under Welch.” Lights Out

“GE regularly leaned on [GE Capital] to make sure that profits stayed steady.” Lights Out

“Few fates were worse than missing your numbers at GE. Executives assigned targets to underlings, rather than lower-rung workers passing information up the ladder, so projections were based on market realities.” Lights Out

“Salespeople relied on financing provided by the stub of GE capital to prop up customer demand.” Lights Out

thumbnail_IMG_0971.jpeg

Marianne Jennings wonderful book, ‘The Seven Signs of Ethical Collapse - How to Spot Moral Meltdowns in Companies... Before It's Too Late’ cites ‘Pressure to Maintain Those Numbers’ as the number one sign of ethical collapse; “All companies experience pressure to maintain solid performance. The tension between ethics and the bottom line will al-ways be present. Indeed, such pressure motivates us and keeps us working and striving. But in this first sign of a culture at risk for ethical collapse, there is not just a focus on numbers and results but an unreasonable and unrealistic obsession with meeting quantitative goals. ‘Meet those numbers!’ is the mantra.”

“Charlie and I have been around the culture, sometimes on the board, where the ego of the CEO became very involved in meeting predictions which were impossible and everybody in the organisation knew, because they were very public about it, what these predictions were and they knew that their CEO was going to look bad if they weren’t met. And that can lead to a lot of bad things. You get enough bad things, anyway, but setting up a system that either exerts financial or psychological pressure on the people around you to do things that they probably really don’t even want to do, in order to avoid disappointing you, that’s a terrible mistake. And, you know, we’ll try to avoid it.” Warren Buffett

“We really believe in the power of incentives. And there’s these hidden incentives that we try to avoid. One we have seen more than once, is when really decent people misbehave because they felt that there was a loyalty to their CEO to present certain numbers, to deliver certain numbers, because the CEO went out and made a lot of forecasts about what the company would earn. I’ve seen a lot of misbehaviour that actually doesn’t profit anybody financially, but it’s been done merely because they don’t want to make the CEO look bad, in terms of his forecast.” Warren Buffett

“You really have to be very careful in the messages you send as a CEO. If you tell your managers you never want to disappoint Wall Street, and you want to report X per share, you may find that they start fudging figures to protect your predictions. And we try to avoid all that kind of behaviour at Berkshire. We’ve just seen too much trouble with it.” Warren Buffett

If a culture is broken and toxic the best advice is to steer clear. It’s almost impossible to turn around a poor culture.

“You can’t buy a company that’s got a dishonest culture and turn it into an honest culture." Bradley Jacobs

Cost Cutting

“The Corporate cost cutting program [was'] called ‘Simplification.’ That program had zeroed in on worker pensions and retiree health insurance as a good place to tighten the company belt.” Lights Out

'Whenever I read about some company undertaking a cost-cutting program, I know it's not a company that really knows what costs are all about. Spurts don't work in this area. The really good manager does not wake up in the morning and say, 'This is the day I'm going to cut costs,' any more than he wakes up and decides to practice breathing.'' Warren Buffett 

“You can’t cut a company to greatness.” Charles Schwab

“Almost every firm engages in bouts of cost cutting. Exceptional firms, however are involved in a permanent revolution against unnecessary expenses.” Marathon Asset Management

Losing Your Competitive Position

“If a management makes bad decisions in order to hit short-term earnings targets, and consequently gets behind the eight-ball in terms of costs, customer satisfaction or brand strength, no amount of subsequent brilliance will overcome the damage that has been inflicted. Take a look at the dilemmas of managers in the auto and airline industries today as they struggle with the huge problems handed them by their predecessors. Charlie is fond of quoting Ben Franklin’s ‘An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.’ But sometimes no amount of cure will overcome the mistakes of the past.” Warren Buffett

“Companies which underinvest in their franchise in order to meet short term targets are not good candidates for compounding wealth.” Terry Smith

Accounting Irregularities

Pressure from the top to hit numbers coupled with an unwarranted focus on the share price, can tempt employees to fudge the numbers. Once again, Marianne Jennings observed, ‘A declining stock price can cause bizarre accounting behaviour. The drive for numbers, number, numbers can take us right to the slippery slope and into ethical collapse.”

“GE Power had sold service guarantees to many of its customers that extended out for decades. By tweaking its estimate of the future cost of fulfilling those contracts, it could boost its profits as needed.” Lights Out

“These reviews [of GE’s service contracts] produced profits that GE could use to hit targets for Wall Street, but they were really future profits, produced by accounting adjustments alone. There was no actual cash coming in… [They] can be red flags to investors… To pad the hole, GE now began selling its receivables - bills its customers owed over time - to GE Capital in order to generate short-term cashflow, making it appear that those newfound profits were matched by cash flowing in the door.” Lights Out

“The SEC concluded its investigations into GE accounting practices, having found multiple instances of misbehaviour in the pursuit of financial targets. The company had overstated its earnings by hundreds of millions of dollars and stretched the accounting rules to their breaking point.” Lights Out

“The SEC described [GE as] a company that lied to investors in its regulatory filings and in its public statements, that ignored growing risks, and that worked to keep those risks hidden.” Lights Out

“Over the years, Charlie and I have seen all sorts of bad corporate behaviour, both accounting and operational, induced by the desire of management to meet Wall Street expectations.” Warren Buffett

Hitting Guidance

“What starts as an ‘innocent’ fudge in order to not disappoint “the Street” – say, trade-loading at quarter-end, turning a blind eye to rising insurance losses, or drawing down a “cookie-jar” reserve – can become the first step toward full-fledged fraud. Playing with the numbers ‘just this once’ may well be the CEO’s intent; it’s seldom the end result. And if it’s okay for the boss to cheat a little, it’s easy for subordinates to rationalise similar behaviour.” Warren Buffett

Acquisitions & Divestments

Immelt wanted to appease Wall Street and convince them to place a higher multiple on the stock. Historically GE had enjoyed a premium valuation providing the currency for accretive acquisitions. As GE Capital grew, a complex finance business within an industrial company, Wall Street applied a lower multiple. Immelt believed shrinking GE Capital would fix the problem.

“GE could use its unusually high price-to-earnings ratio for an industrial company as high-value currency to pay for deals. By acquiring companies with a lower price-to-earnings ratio, GE was getting an automatic earnings boost.” Lights Out

“Immelt needed to make moves that would finally impress upon Wall Street that he had found a way to lead the old GE into a new economic paradigm.” Lights Out

Capital Management

“GE had been sending cash out the door to repurchase its stock but wasn’t bringing in enough cash from its regular operations to cover its dividend.” Lights Out

“Buybacks were a regular fixture under Immelt, who spent more than $108 billion on them after 2004. At the end of 2018, GE’s entire market value was $67 billion.” Lights Out

Group Think

The oversight role of the board was minimal.” Lights Out

“The board, made up of current and retired business executives and academics, as a group, liked Immelt and didn’t want to challenge him.” Lights Out

“Top GE executives, including Immelt, would say that they never heard any serious dissent about the Alstom deal.” Lights Out

The absence of robust opposition [to the Alstom deal] also pointed to the broader problem, long cultivated and growing into a quiet crisis within the company of real candor and self-awareness. When it had come time for lower levels of management to stand up to the ultimate boss and tell him that his legacy play wasn’t going to work - and in fact, had been a clumsy mistake all along - no-one was willing to do so.” Lights Out

“Vice Chair John Krenecki, insiders said, had been forced out by Immelt, in part because he had already seemed a little too prone to disagreeing with the CEO or telling him no.” Lights Out

“GE’s board of directors was unquestionably weakened from having the CEO as the chairman of the Board.” Lights Out

“While Immelt said he encouraged debate, [Board] meetings often lacked critical questioning.” Lights Out

“The seventeen independent directors got a mix of cash, stock, and other perks worth more than $300,000 a year.” Lights Out

“[Board] directors rarely challenged Immelt.” Lights Out

“The [Board] directors had amassed impressive titles in their own career and in many cases undeniable achievement. They had resumes a yard long, most of them had personal fortunes, and they were presumed in all company to have unusually astute minds for business - not least because each one was a highly compensated director of GE. And yet, on their fiduciary watch, with whatever caveats about individual misjudgement and macroeconomic trends, they had done nothing to stop one of the world’s most solid industrial companies from lunging off a commercial cliff.” Lights Out

“Sycophants are the enablers of ethical collapse. Fear and silence are the enemies of an ethical culture.” Marianne Jennings

“If you arrange your organisation so that you basically have a bunch of sycophants who are cloaked in titles, you are going to leave your prior conclusions intact, and you’re going to get whatever you go in with your biases wanting. And the board is not going to be much of a check on that. I’ve seen very, very few boards that can stand up to the CEO on something that’s important to the CEO and just say, you know, ‘You’re not going to get it.’” Warren Buffett

Complexity

“Inside GE’s legendary management machine was a complex mechanism that used [GE Capital’s] deals to help the company meet its profit goals.” Lights Out

“GE Capital was always a problem. It was utterly complex and filled with risk, and its tentacles reached everywhere in the company.” Lights Out

“[The financial services] balance sheets were treacherously complex, and deep risks lurked there and were not always easily spotted in the quarterly profits and losses.” Lights Out

“[GE Capital was] essentially operating a high-powered hedge fund.” Lights Out

Where you have complexity, by nature you can have fraud and mistakes.. This will always be true of financial companies. If you want accurate numbers from financial companies, you’re in the wrong world.” Charlie Munger

Cyclical Industries

GE ventured into the highly cyclical oil business with optimistic forecasts, little experience and no margin of safety.

“GE was going big into the oil business.” Lights Out

“Now GE became, in a series of high-dollar acquisitions, a player in the oil and gas equipment market virtually overnight.” Lights Out

“While Immelt heard, and was annoyed by, the chirping of some analysts who felt he’d paid a premium to leap into the oil and gas industry several years after his competitors, the company’s leadership was sure that the ensuing years would show the bet payoff.” Lights Out

GE’s ‘base case’ assumption for all of the rosy pictures it was painting about its oil unit was $100 for a barrel of oil. Brent crude had closed out the previous month at more than $105 a barrel, only a little off its summer peak.” Lights Out

“Afloat on fracking profits during an oil boom, Lufkin had caught GE’s eye and been swallowed up at an expensive price, only to become a casualty when the conglomerate couldn’t abide the hit to earnings that a prolonged dip in the price of oil represented.” Lights Out

Insurance Tail Risks

“Everyone - reporters, analysts, investors - thought that the company had sold the insurance business long ago, significantly de-risking GE Capital. In often highlighting this point, Immelt and his top executives hadn’t minced words: GE was out of insurance.” Lights Out

“The core problem was that GE had made some bad decisions in reinsuring the long-term care policies.” Lights Out

GE needed $15 billion to cover its liability.” Lights Out

"Virtually all surprises in insurance are unpleasant ones." Warren Buffett

“You can make big mistakes in insurance… You can make mistakes in something like insurance reserving, big time.” Warren Buffett

Bigger than Life CEO

Jeff Immelt almost personified the ‘bigger-than-life’ CEO. It’s a characterisation Marianne Jennings identified as another red flag for investors.

“Immelt knew the power of his influence, and he wasn’t above calling these subordinates [below the divisional heads] to make sure they knew the stakes and urge them to hit their targets.” Lights Out

“The structural component that fuels fear and silence and numbers pressure is the presence of an iconic CEO who is adored by the community, media, and just about anyone at a distance.Marianne Jennings

Humility & Tone from the Top

“Immelt was required by the board to use only the company’s planes and was barred from flying commercial.” Lights Out

“Immelt, his good cheer notwithstanding, was not interested in hearing his judgement questioned. ‘My job is to make the company perform,’ Immelt told a newspaper reporter, ‘and my job is to make sure that nobody defines this company other than me.” Lights Out

“[Owning GE Capital meant] Immelt enjoyed having the accompanying seat at the table with Wall Street power players.” Lights Out

“Owning NBC gave Immelt and Welch access to red carpets.” Lights Out

“It had taken two corporate jets to take Jeff Immelt around the world. For much of his career [Immelt] often had an empty jet follow his GE-owned Bombardier or Gulfstream to far-flung destinations, just in case there was a mechanical issue that could lead to delays.” Lights Out

“No effort was spared by the staff to ensure that meeting venues were cooled to meat-locker temperatures to accommodate Immelt’s preference, irrespective of whether anyone had ever heard him make such a demand out loud.” Lights Out

“Was a CEO supposed to object that the temperature was not to his liking, or demand that elevators were always open and waiting for him? Or that the cold diet sodas he liked were always present on a sideboard when he entered a room, no matter how far-flung the visit or conference room he walked into?” Lights Out

“But GE has stood for well-bred hubris as well. Under Immelt, the company believed that the will to hit a target could supersede the math, even when hundred of thousands of livelihoods - those of investors, customers, and suppliers, to say nothing of workers, retirees, and their families - hung in the balance." Lights Out

Smart Investors

The emergence of a smart investor on the register is no panacea for investment success. Activist investor Nelson Peltz’s fund emerged with a $2.5 billion stake in 2015. Even the great investors make mistakes.

Trian’s endorsement was the stamp of approval that Immelt thought would help others realise the full legitimacy of GE’s expected turnaround.” Lights Out

In every great stock market disaster or fraud, there is always one or two great investors invested in the thing all the way down. Enron, dot-com, banks, always ‘smart guys’ involved all the way down.” Jim Chanos

Summary

The ‘pressure to maintain those numbers’, a culture of ‘fear and silence’, a bigger-than-life CEO, and a weak board conspired against the investors of General Electric; red flags that stand firmly in the qualitative camp, not to be found in a spreadsheet.

These misdeeds aren’t unique or new to investing. After more than two decades of research and observation, Marianne Jennings identified each of them in her book, ‘The Seven Signs of Ethical Collapse.’ They didn’t go amiss at Berkshire either, given Munger and Buffett’s astute understanding of human behaviour.

History is littered with similar corporate disasters to GE. They serve as a warning for analysts, investors, portfolio managers, boards and CEO’s alike; Forewarned is forearmed. Understanding those qualitative tools that may suggest not all’s right with a company might help you ‘keep the lights on,’ when the next GE turns up.

“I think that many CEOs get carried away into folly. They haven’t studied the past models of disaster enough and they’re not risk-averse enough.” Charlie Munger




Source:
Lights Out - Pride, Delusion and the Fall of General Electric,” by Ted Mann and Thomas Gryta, Mariner Books, 2020.

Further Suggested Reading:
The Ten Commandments of Business Failure,” Investment Masters Class, 2016.
The Seven Signs of Ethical Collapse - How to Spot Moral Meltdowns in Companies... Before It's Too Late,” Marianne Jennings, MacMillan, 2006.
Avoiding Group Think,” Investment Masters Class, 2016.



Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive









TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER

Learning from Estée Lauder's Leonard Lauder

‘Paris, the Eiffel Tower, Estée Lauder.’

Kind of rolls off the tongue doesn’t it? Now try this one: ‘Esther Lauter, Brooklyn, Business Fanatic.’ While the former conjures up images of glamour and beauty, the latter does so less, and is rather the story of one woman’s unrelenting drive and obsession to create a luxury brand renowned the world over.

From the start, Estée recognised the psychological benefits of a name that sounded feminine and vaguely European, distinctive but elegant, and easy to pronounce and remember. She settled on her baby nickname ‘Estee’ and added an accent mark to make it a little French while softening the hard German Lauter to a more amorous Lauder.

I recently enjoyed reading ‘The Company I keep - My Life in Beauty,’ the story of one family’s journey to the top of the world’s cosmetic and beauty stage. The story is told by Estée’s son Leonard who joined the company in 1958 when it was still a fledging mom-and-pop company, with less than $1m in revenue and product distribution limited to just a small handful of prestige specialty stores. In time, Estée’s creativity, intelligence and fanaticism combined with Leonard’s business acumen and acquisition prowess created the powerhouses that are The Estée Lauder Companies today.

The Lauder’s were applying a repertoire of ‘influencing’ tools long before Charlie Munger’s favourite psychologist, Robert Cialdini, identified them in his bestselling book of a similar name. A Clinique beauty expert dressed in a lab coat and armed with the ‘Clinique computer’ would trigger the power of authority; free samples and gifts would engage the reciprocation tendency; Saks 5th Avenue provided the requisite social proof; glamorous models and compliments from the beauty counter initiated the liking disposition; while limited distribution created a sense of scarcity.

“The [Clinique] beauty experts exuded exactly the right combination of scientific authority and style.”

Two of my favourite takeaways from the book were Leonard’s insights into the creation and evolution of prestige brands and their delicate relationship with distribution channels and his ‘modus operandi’ of ensuring constant competition within the business. The book is brimming with business lessons; the need for patience; the danger of becoming a prisoner of the P/E ratio, staying under the radar, the value of a diverse workforce, setting the tone from the top, and the benefits of ‘walking the floor’ to name but a few.

There’s a plethora of mental models you’ll recognise from many of the other great businesses we’ve studied. Hopefully there’s one or two new ones you can add to your own investing toolkit. Below you’ll find some of my favourites.

Estée Lauder vs SP500 1995-2021 [Source: Bloomberg]

Estée Lauder vs SP500 1995-2021 [Source: Bloomberg]

Family

“The company and I grew up together, our lives as closely paired as twins. It has always been more than a family company: it was - and continues to be - my family.”

My mother strongly believed in ‘family’ as a powerful asset, and she was right. There's a lot of research comparing the sustainability and profitability of family companies whether the family is in control or "just" works there, to non-family companies. Because of their sense of stewardship, the family companies tend to be more profitable and more sustainable in the long run.”

Family for me is not limited to my blood relatives; the concept extends to all of our employees at The Estée Lauder Companies. We make a big effort to make everyone in the company feel part of the Estée Lauder family.”

“It’s been said that there are two things that can destroy a family business: the family and the business, and they both have to be kept in order.”

Culture

“Seeing how Revson [Revlon CEO] treated some of his top executives pointed me in a direction that I think always worked out for us. You can make a nice place to work and still make money.”

Quality

“I learned early that being a perfectionist and providing quality was the only way to do business.”

My mother was a stickler for quality. Quality was, to use a modern term, a differentiator.”

Never skimp on quality; put your heart and soul into producing the best-quality products to present to your public. Don’t let anyone talk you out of it.”

Reciprocation

“My mother had discovered what she called ‘The sales technique of the century’: free samples.”

‘A Gift for You’ - Estée Lauder advert 1989

‘A Gift for You’ - Estée Lauder advert 1989

A free sample was the basis on which Estée Lauder was built.”

“‘I visited the sales personal in the dress department, the hat department, the shoe department, as well as other cosmetic departments,’ she [Estée Lauder] later wrote. ‘To each saleswoman, I brought a gift of my makeup or cream, exactly what I’d be giving away to customers as they claimed their free gifts they’d been promised in advertisements. ‘I learned the merchandising method of inducing the whole store to speak for my products,’ she concluded. ‘The point was to keep placing the products in the public eye, keep devising new ways of capturing the consumer’s attention.’”

“The giveaways created an opportunity to exercise the high-touch Estée Lauder sales approach, encourage spontaneous buying, increase loyalty among existing customers, and bring in new ones.”

Value Employees

If you respect the people that work for you, they will respect you.”

“As time went on, I made a habit of writing once a year to everyone who worked behind the counter, expressing my recognition of and gratitude for their hard work. I’d write individual notes - not ‘Dear Everyone’ form letters - and I’d sign each one. As the company grew, I had to resort to dictation, but each letter was personalised - and each one signed by me.”

I firmly believe that people don’t work only for money. They work for recognition.”

Find a way to congratulate someone for a job well done. Even if your note is just a little one-liner, when you say ‘thank you for doing a good job,’ it’s more likely the recipient will go to the ends of the earth for you.”

When we went public in 1995, I persuaded all the members of the Lauder family to carve out a portion of their personal stock and give it as a gift to the employees of Estée Lauder. It wasn't enough to enable everyone to splurge on a yacht, but it was enough to make each person feel that we were all in this together.”

Ideas

“I’m a big believer in what I call ‘lateral creativity’ - getting ideas from everywhere.”

Competitive Advantage

“My mother didn’t realise it at the time, but her insistence on personally training saleswomen would be a key differentiator when she eventually opened counters in department stores.”

“My parents didn’t have the capital to create even one such salon, let alone a chain of salons that could compete against Miss Arden and Madame. Instead, my mother hones in on a different platform to reach her customers: select specialty stores.”

“My mother instinctively knew that a brand is defined by its distribution. If we were sold in Saks Fifth Avenue, then we had made it. How to get Estée Lauder products into Saks was the main topic of dinner conversation every night.”

Estée Lauder / Saks Fifth Avenue

Estée Lauder / Saks Fifth Avenue

“At Estée Lauder, everything was and still is about training. It’s one of our key differentiators from our competitors. Training is all about teaching people that they can achieve anything if they know what to do and how to do it and giving them the confidence to do it well.”

Competitive Strategy - Avoid Competitors

“Backing into the fragrance market through bath oils taught me another lesson. Our non-threatening strategy enabled Estée Lauder to stay below the radar of major competition. French perfume manufacturers scoffed, saying, ‘We don’t do bath oils.’ Meanwhile, sales of Youth Dew skyrocketed. I learned the importance of choosing my battles - and not to dismiss a competitor just because they seem innocuous.”

“The lesson my mother drummed into me: Everyone is a competitor or a potential competitor. You can’t ignore anyone.”

Change

“In 1960, there were 4,500 malls accounting for 14 percent of retail sales. By 1975, there would be 16,400 shopping centres scooping up 33 percent of retail sales… We owned the suburban stores. First to market always wins.”

Economic Resilience

‘My mother was onto something: even in 1933, one of the worst years of the Depression, cosmetic sales were higher than they had been before the crash.”

Compete with Yourself

“I learned a valuable lesson [running two film clubs at college]: you can compete with yourself and win. It was a lesson that, a decade later, would spawn Clinique and would eventually inform the thinking behind The Estée Lauder Companies’ portfolio of brands.”

Instead of waiting to see what our rivals might dream up and then respond, wouldn’t it be better for us to leapfrog them and create our own competitor first? A multi-brand model for Estée Lauder had always been in my mind. I thought, ‘I know just what I’d do if I were competing with Estée Lauder. Why let a competitor do it? I’ll do it.”

Clinique wasn’t just a new line of skin-care or makeup: it was an entirely new way of thinking about beauty.”

In retrospect, the Clinique and Estée Lauder brands both competed and complemented each other. Clinique was the ‘anti-cosmetic,’ so wherever Estée Lauder sold well, Clinique didn’t. And where Estée Lauder lagged, Clinique did well.”

Clinique's first computer, launched in 1968, was used to determine skin type and deliver personalised results.

Clinique's first computer, launched in 1968, was used to determine skin type and deliver personalised results.

I created Clinique specifically to compete with Estée Lauder. Competing against myself is an idea that never grows old. Who was going to compete with M.A.C? The answer, unquestionably, was Bobbi Brown Cosmetics. [When we acquired] Bobbi Brown it was the perfect counterbalance to M.A.C.”

Creating our own competition both brings about something and prevents something. What I was trying to bring about was becoming the market leader, and we’ve done that: we are the largest supplier of prestige cosmetics in the world and we are the dominant player in almost every prestige market, largely because of that strategy. Second, I knew that a brand can’t live forever. I had seen older brands, which were once market leaders fade away. People would come up to me and say, ‘Oh, Estée Lauder, my grandmother loves your products.’ If they said, ‘My daughter loves your products,’ I’d be thrilled. But ‘my grandmother?’ Not as great. So we kept on acquiring companies or launching our own competitors so that as new consumers came into the market, they would discover their own newer brands and they would make them theirs.”

Humility

“Being a waiter was a good experience because I believe you have to do grunt work in order to appreciate the big things.”

Patience

“It didn’t happen overnight. The sampling and Gift-with-Purchase programs were like planting an accord. They didn’t really bear fruit for another year, and only then did Youth Dew [fragrance] itself start to take off. This would be a valuable lesson in patience that I would apply to subsequent fragrance launches.”

“We took a bath before Clinique started paying off… just six months after the launch of Clinique, our cashflow problem had become a crisis.”

Brands

“The navy also taught me about strategy. The aircraft carrier was always accompanied by several destroyers, which served as a screen for the large ship. I would use that analogy in business: The small brands would protect the main brand. Clinique was the first screen for the Estée Lauder aircraft carrier, followed by Origins and Prescriptives. Later, the brands we acquired for the The Estée Lauder Companies’ portfolio would support the heritage brands.”

“My dream was to make Estée Lauder the General Motors of the beauty business, with multiple brands, multiple product lines, and multinational distribution.”

‘In 1956 Estée Lauder advertising proudly lists price at an unprecedented $115 a jar’ Source: Estée Lauder Companies

‘In 1956 Estée Lauder advertising proudly lists price at an unprecedented $115 a jar’ Source: Estée Lauder Companies

“[Launching in Europe] we deliberately chose a different approach: Re-Nutriv, the most expensive cream in the world… [Treatment] creams were unabashedly expensive - and that was one of their selling points. Estée Lauder led this rarefied club.. Not only was it a terrific product; it had one of the most brilliant positioning statements we’ve ever made: the most expensive cream in the world… it was the positioning, not the ingredients, that propelled its success.”

I wanted Estée Lauder to be the most upmarket brand there was. I wanted to have limited distribution so that every store that was selling our product knew that the person they were selling to could only come back to them; conversely, the person who was buying revelled in the exclusivity of where she bought it. That’s how you build a great brand and a great business.”

“I knew that out products had to be the highest quality, unique, creative, original, and, of course, efficacious. The Lauder brand would be synonymous with luxury, and Re-Nutriv would be the epitome and standard-bearer of luxury products.”

We wanted to sell our products in high-end specialty stores because their prestige gave us prestige.”

Positioning a brand says, “This is who we are.” I’ve seen too many companies fail by trying to reposition a brand. Know who you are and stick to it. Enhance your brand but don’t reposition it.”

“Up until then, every cosmetic ad was designed to sell a product. I decided that rather than selling only a product, our ads would sell the brand.. All our advertising would be orientated toward the brand. Focusing on the brand would hone our identity and be our North Star. Marketing a brand gives you more pricing power. If a product is a musical instrument, a brand is the entire orchestra.”

The launch of Clinique was a classic case of leveraging market segmentation. Looking back, this was probably the most important lesson I learned in my career: if you understood market segmentation, you understood everything.”

“Its well known in our industry that when customers like one product from one brand, they’re willing to try - and maybe buy - other products. Fragrance, in other words, broadened the profit stream for the entire Estée Lauder brand.”

“Fragrance became an intrinsic part of the all-round concept of being an Estée Lauder woman. Our fragrance advertising sold romance and prestige. You can’t sell romance with an anti-wrinkle cream.”

“A few years earlier, I had retained Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter to consult on the future of Estée Lauder. His advice: ‘Never get stuck in the middle.’ If you’re in the middle you’re nowhere. You’re neither value line nor the prestige line, so what are you?”

Brands have their own DNA and don't always follow the story you script for them. It’s like when a child is born: you think she's going to become a doctor and she decides instead to become an astronaut or an actor. We thought [with Prescriptives] we were launching another treatment line - another anti-Lauder line, a’la Clinique—but that morphed into a cosmetics/colour line driven by the Calyx fragrance.”

“I had an epiphany: I realised we needed new brands to understudy our existing brands as well as to fill in the gaps and expand the company as a whole. We needed to launch or acquire competitors so that as newer consumers came into the market, they could discover new brands and make them their own.”

“Creating a new brand that really is new is very difficult to do. It’s even more difficult to do from inside an established organisation. Outsiders are all about blowing up conventions: ‘I’ve got to beat the old guys.’ People inside the organisation, however, hesitate: ‘Let’s be careful in creating something new, so we don’t destroy what we have.’ Playing it safe sabotages boldness.”

I’m a risk taker and I always have been. In order to survive, you have to take chances. But I don’t believe you should destroy the old before building the new, you’ll have no ground to build on. Brands need to change to stay relevant. Consumers are constantly evolving in ways you can’t even imagine.”

“As I saw it, acquiring brands was - and remains - a great way to expand our customer base. In order to grow, we needed to acquire not just new brands but new thinking. The best way to acquire new thinking was to acquire a company with the founders, who could then, with our help, drive their original creation to new heights.”

“There’s nothing more high-touch that a freestanding store, no better way to protect the brand and control the customer experience.”

Autonomy

“M.A.C Cosmetics would have an organisation all of its own, from top to bottom. They would be able to create their own world without anyone saying, ‘You can’t do that.’ There wouldn’t be any naysayers around.”

Distribution

One of our most important epiphanies was, ‘You’re defined by your distribution.’ For us, that meant luxury department and specialty stores, pure and simple.”

You’re known as much by where you don’t sell as by where you do sell.”

I’ve said it a thousand times: you’re defined by your distribution. If you’re in luxury, stay in the luxury segment. Don’t be bewitched by the volume that can be gleaned by selling in a distribution channel that does not match the equity of your brand.”

In the prestige sector, no brand is strong enough to withstand over-distribution. Distribution is forever.”

“Financial analysts always praise ‘distribution expansion.’ But without realising it, they’re encouraging slow death because over-distribution kills a luxury brand. Over-distribution certainly killed the Prescriptives stores. And that is especially poignant, because over-distribution went against everything we stood for. We had become a prisoner of our P/E.”

Growth

I decided to focus on growth: growth of market share and rate of growth. America loves growth. Growth is a story that gets people excited.”

Keep it Simple

Our formula was simple; limited distribution in prestige specialty and department stores accompanied by the personal touch of a beauty advisor.”

Hiring & Firing

“[The Navy taught me the greatest lesson of my life…] no matter how smart you think you are, there’s always someone who’s smarter. No matter how good you are, there’s always someone better. I vowed that when I got out of the Navy and went into business, I would search out and hire exactly those people. So if they were the head of sales, they would sell better than me. If they were a copywriter, they would write better copy. They all had to be better. I would respect and celebrate their abilities and never be threatened by them. This belief would play an enormous role in the growth of Estée Lauder and help us build a company of the greatest people in the world.”

“Don’t hire your best friend and don’t hire former classmates. In short, don’t hire people that you can’t fire. Friendship is friendship but business is business.”

“My father had a saying when he had to fire someone: ‘Better a sharp pain in the end than pain without end.’ If you’re having trouble with a person who looks like they will not be able to improve, it’s better to help them to leave than to suffer with them. There is a point beyond which patience becomes neglect, Fail fast. Cut your losses.”

Everyone in the world has worth. If you cannot get someone to produce for you in a satisfactory manner, it is almost always your fault and you should acknowledge that, honestly and with respect. When I have to fire someone, I’ll say to them, ‘It’s really not your fault, it’s our fault." We probably didn’t train you right, we didn’t supervise you well, we didn’t work with you properly, and we didn’t put you in the job most suited to your talents. The reason I’m asking you to leave is not because you are no good. It’s because we’re not good enough to be able to use the great talents you have.”

Win-Win

During our promotions the first floor of the stores reported sales increases well over 100 percent. Thanks to limited distribution, the stores got a fantastic return on investment.”

The intimacy of our relationship with our stores was crucial to our growth... It’s often said that you can only be as good as the people who work for you want you to be. I would add, we could only be as good as the people we are selling to want us to be, too. Our message: ‘Support Estée Lauder and you support your store.’ To enable them to support us, we supported them with a lot of work behind the scenes. Each store was given an annual program, broken down month by month, of what we would do to improve our business - and theirs.”

We’d always had a partnership with our stores: more than a partnership, the stores were part of the extended Estée Lauder family.”

Diversity / Women

Almost the entire Clinique leadership team was composed of women. (Over the years, when Clinique was run by women, its P&L was always higher than any of our other P&L’s). This was the secret sauce. In fact, I would turn it into a management formula. Every time I set up a new international office, I always wanted to have two people in charge: a man and a woman.”

Our great strength has derived from the fact that from the beginning, we had women giving women the products and knowledge to make themselves feel beautiful, as opposed to Charles Revson [Revlon] telling women that he, as a man, knew what would make women desirable to men. Today, this is what is called ‘mirroring’ the market.

The last thing you want is a team of mini-mes. Difference - whether it’s a different background, different ethnicity, age, or different gender - is a source of strength.

Committees

I never relied on a committee for a final decision. Committees are the death of creativity and productivity.”

Mistakes

Never be afraid to admit you’ve made a mistake. It shows you’re human and people will respect you more.”

Market Share / Private Company

“I never, ever forgot that once you've lost market share, you can't get it back again so easily. And I was always going to protect our market share, no matter how much it cost. As a private company, we had a huge advantage over our publicly held rivals: we could spend years nursing along a new brand or spending to gather market share because we didn't have to answer to our shareholders.”

“We were always contrarian. When the competition tightened its budget, we increased ours: we doubled down to protect out market share.”

It would have been difficult to sustain the flexibility that nurtured Clinique and Origins if we had shareholders demanding a steady stream of profits and growth. The hard fact is, I don’t think we would have been able to maintain either brand if we had been a public company.”

“Getting ahead of the curve also means imaging and preparing for what might go wrong. Don’t wait for bad things to happen to you. Don’t wait to defend your market share. Fight for every percentage point while you’re growing because by the time you lose it, it will be too expensive to get it back.”

Frugality

My wife liked to regale people with stories of my frugality. For example, I couldn’t understand why she had to take a taxi to visit stores in Brooklyn. ‘Why can’t you take the subway?’ I’d gripe. Anyway, because our overhead was so low, we could afford to use - in fact, we could insist on using - expensive ingredients.”

“I am the legendary Scrooge-in-Chief.”

Instinct

“As I established my place at Estée Lauder, I learned the most important lesson that would shape my career and life inside and outside the company: to trust my instincts. Instinct is something that is natural and ingrained: however, instinct has its foundation in experience. If you have enough experience, somewhere along the line, instinct will kick in. If we’re making a decision to buy a company, my experience helps me connect the dots faster and see bellwethers others might not. Then my instinct will take over and make the decision.”

First to Market

First to market always wins.”

“My dream was to put our stake in the ground. We had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity: to be the first brand of prestige cosmetics in what could become an enormous market. Deep in my gut, I knew that Europe was ready for Estée Lauder.”

Clinique Computer (Source: Estée Lauder Companies)

Clinique Computer (Source: Estée Lauder Companies)

Launch first, launch strong, and stay strong: it worked for us then and continues to work for us today.”

Whenever possible, we created product lines that would open new market segments where Estée Lauder would be first.”

“My radar was honed for overlooked demographics. That led to the 1963 launch of Aramis, the first prestige men’s fragrance and the cornerstone of a collection of men’s grooming aids.”

When you launch first, you have no competition to sweep aside. You automatically become the authority.”

“We became the first prestige brand to advertise on television.”

“Our objective was to have at least 33 percent of our business each year be totally new products.”

Walk the Floor

Listen to and learn from people on the ground. They’re the ones who really know what’s going on.”

“It taught me a valuable lesson: to listen to our customers and the people who worked behind the counter. They were my consumer research. And it was free.”

“One of the most rewarding - and certainly one of my favourite - activities in helping build the Estée Lauder business was visiting our stores. These visits had several objectives. The first was to listen to our consultants and buyers and learn what was really going on. The second was to let the people in the trenches know that their work was recognised and appreciated, and inspire them to do better. The third was to send a message to everyone who worked for us that store visits were an important thing to do.”

“Retailers in the ‘mass business’ call these ‘store checks.’ However, I don’t consider these visits check-ups. They are a learning tool for management and a motivational tool for everyone.”

“If you study military history, you'll find that the most effective leaders are those who engage with their troops on the eve of battle: Henry V speaking to his ‘band of brothers’ before Agincourt; Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson signalling the British fleet that ‘England expects every man to do his duty" as the Battle of Trafalgar commenced; General Dwight D. Eisenhower shaking the hands of the paratroopers before they jumped on D-Day. We at Estée Lauder were fighting a war on two fronts—our ‘class’ competitors in prestige stores and our ‘mass’ rivals elsewhere. We needed to do more than just ‘check the store.’ We needed to learn and inspire our employees, our stores, and ourselves.”

I’d ask the counter manager questions: What was the best-seller at that particular moment? What were people asking for? What were people liking - and not liking? Which products would she like to see us add to the line?”

Store visits were deep dives that delivered ideas in droves. I loved those van trips. They were the oil that helped our company run smoothly and built Estée Lauder and Clinique into powerhouse brands.”

When I visited a store, my job was to connect with people and listen.”

Tone at the Top

It’s very important for a leader to send the right message through his actions. For example, on one of the van trips I was having breakfast at a swanky hotel with two friends who were art dealers. The discussion drifted to the fact that I would only fly economy. ‘'Economy?’ they asked, shocked that the president of a luxury beauty company would take a seat in the back of the plane. ‘How can you fly only economy?’ I answered, ‘If I'm going to make all our executives fly economy, then I'll fly economy, too.’ That's how we were able to build a fast-growing business without ever having to borrow one dollar from the bank—and they knew it.”

When I walk through the hall of the company, if I see a piece of paper on the floor, I pick it up. It’s important for employees to see you doing that. Because if you don’t care, why should they?

Crisis

Crisis can be a means of fusing the company together. Laughter helped smooth the path through hard times.”

Tactical versus Strategic Mistakes

When it comes to strategy, you can make tactical mistakes but you cannot afford to make a strategic mistake. What do I mean? A tactical mistake is one that, if you make it today, will only cost you today. A strategic mistake is one that, if you make it today, will cost you tomorrow - and tomorrow and tomorrow.”

Long Term

“I’ve always felt that you can’t deal with the day after tomorrow. You have to deal with the decades after decades. One of the things that made Estée Lauder so successful in my thinking is that we think in decades, not in the short term.”

We prided ourselves on our patience. My son William likes to use the term ‘patient capital,’ shorthand for how we allocate our resources. Knowing that it often takes years for a new brand to become profitable, we could afford to invest the time and money [when we were a private company] to let a brand grow at its own pace and mature in particular markets.”

Patient capital enables you to launch for the long term. Some people think that if you introduce a new product today, you need to make money immediately or have to pull the plug. After you’ve been around a while, you know that if the product makes money year one, you can almost guarantee it won’t make money in the future. It’s a flash in the pan. But if you hang in until year three, it will pay off for the long term.”

Invert

I always work backward to move forward. I start imaging what I want to see happen in three to five or even ten years from now, and then I worked backward to articulate steps I have to take today and tomorrow and next year and the year after.”

IPO

I felt the price [of the initial public offering] should be modest, so that the aftermarket would see strong growth and give our investors confidence that the company was a good investment.”

Wall Street Journal 1989 (Source: Estée Lauder Companies)

Wall Street Journal 1989 (Source: Estée Lauder Companies)

“The scrutiny you face from being in the public eye is a different experience than you've ever had if you've been a privately held, family company. Instead of steering the ship on our own, we'd have to answer to partners. The aims and considerations of outside shareholders are often very different from your own. They tend to eschew the long-term good for the immediate reward of short-term gains.”

I swore to myself and my colleagues that we would continue to run Estée Lauder as a privately held company: Our decisions would be steered by what was good for either market share, long-term profits, and/or brand equity, rather than what Wall Street wanted.”

Acquisitions

I think of myself not as a brand buyer but as a brand builder.”

The first two acquisitions sparked a sea change in my thinking: from then on, I would look to the entrepreneurs to come up with ideas that we couldn't imagine. We would try to enlist and support these new creators, make their operations more efficient, but never change their DNA. In return, we would offer them a chance to expand their company's name and footprint and their life. We could make them and their employees richer and happier.”

My strategy was to target brands that were either beating us in a particular category or pioneering a new path in the luxury market. I looked for companies that showed a track record and momentum, had an infrastructure that was working, and understood their distribution and how that distribution supported their brand. We could build upon and boost what their founders had started. I avoided big companies with entrenched identities. I wanted small businesses with plenty of room to grow - with our help. I’d rather buy a $1m company and build it to $100m than try push a $100m company to $200m.”

We only bought companies that already had momentum. Newton's law of inertia says that an object in motion tends to stay in motion. Look for brands and products that are growing; the consumer is giving you millions of dollars of market research that you don't need to purchase.”

I was never interested in turnarounds. I didn’t have the patience to bring the troubled brand to health, and they were probably in trouble for good reason.”

“We’ve since expanded our portfolio of acquisitions to include more than twenty-five brands. It’s a carefully constructed collection that gives us balance - in the brands we own, in the markets where we do business, and in the diversity a global company needs to protect itself from the ebb and flow of world economies. This balance gives us competitive strength and consumer appeal.”

Summary

The Estée Lauder Companies have survived and thrived in a constantly evolving and intensely competitive industry through empowering and engaging their salespeople, supplementing existing brands with new ones and exercising the patience required for them to succeed. While the business has recognised and engaged many of the psychological tools of influence, long term sustainability comes from pleasing an ever changing customer.

Leonard’s engaging book sheds light on many of the qualitative characteristics we’ve witnessed in the other great businesses we’ve studied; factors that have been creating competitive advantages in companies for decades. When you find a combination, you’ll often see the lollapalooza outcomes; so desired by Charlie Munger.

Many of the timeless lessons espoused by Leonard and his mother will be as relevant tomorrow as they have been through the more than 70 years The Estée Lauder Companies have been thriving in business. Leonard has been generous to share them with us and if we listen, it should allow our investments to harness a beauty of their own.







Source:
The Company I Keep - My Life in Beauty,’ Leonard A. Lauder, HarperCollins 2020.
‘Key Moments of History,’ Estée Lauder Companies - website.
'The Estée Story,’ Estée Lauder Companies - website.





Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive









TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER






Master Series: David Rolfe

Warren Buffett has long likened compounding to a snowball of sticky snow, and the longer the runway the snowball has to gather that sticky snow, the better. One manager that started rolling that ball a quarter of a century ago, was David Rolfe of Wedgewood Partners. And thanks to the power of compounding that snowball has grown a lot faster than the S&P500, with annual returns of 13.1%pa gross compared to 9.6%pa for S&P500. In part, Wedgewood’s market-beating performance stemmed from a preparedness to embrace technology stocks and challenge traditional value investing heuristics. I was fortunate to chat to David recently where we discussed his strategy, portfolio management, Berkshire and all things investing. I hope you enjoy the insights as much as I did.

Early Career

“The planets aligned for me really early in my career. Wedgewood was founded in 1988 by my current business partner Tony Guerrerio. 1988 was also coincidentally the year that I left the sell-side of the Street. I left PaineWebber in 1987 after being there for about a year and a half out of college. In early 1988, shortly after the crash in 1987, I was very fortunate to get a job as a portfolio manager at a big bank in St. Louis called Centerre Trust, the old First National Bank of St. Louis. Shortly after I joined, they merged with the second largest bank in St. Louis called Boatmen's, and they kept the name Boatmen's. So my CV says Portfolio Manager of Boatmen's Trust.

What's really key to this time period, is that the combined banks did a huge custody business. And pre-internet, it's kind of funny to think about this, we had annual reports, quarterly reports, mutual fund reports, money manager commentaries from the outside money managers that the clients used from the bank; all of that information came in and it was being filed. So my
continuing study of the great investors of the day really launched – particularly the focused managers. There's a file of all the old shareholder letters from Mason Hawkins at Southeastern before he launched the Longleaf fund, mutual fund reports from the original gang at Janus – Bailey, Craig and I think Marsico joined them in 1986.  A ton of reports from John Neff’s Windsor fund.  The great writings from George Michaelis at Source Capital. A ton of Mario Gabelli. There were annual reports from Berkshire Hathaway going back into the early 1970’s. We even had the internal corporate reports from the old Templeton Investment Counsel before Franklin bought them in 1992. It was a goldmine!

So in 1988, I became a portfolio manager and what was really fortunate for me at a very young age all of the portfolio managers at Boatmen's Trust, were assigned fully discretionary equity accounts that we could do whatever we wanted with. If you beat the S&P, you got a bonus. It was a one, two and three year rolling metric, audited by the old Arthur Andersen. I did pretty good those four years beating the S&P 500 in three of those. So our current focused strategy was born back in early 1988 and I have been on the performance clock ever since going on 33 years.

I did that for almost four years until I heard through the grapevine at a meeting of the CFA Society of St. Louis that this investment firm out in St. Louis County, had a founding CIO who was leaving. And so with track record in hand, at the ripe old age of 30 and I knew all the mysteries of the stock market at the age of 30 [laughs], I met my partner, my then boss, Tony Guerrerio.

My predecessor, God bless him, he passed away recently, what a great guy. He was very nice to me. He was older than Tony, he retired. Wedgewood only had $10 million or so under management. The other side of the business, a discount brokerage like Quick & Reilly or Schwab that kept the lights on. So literally as the new CIO I had a whiteboard to start the investment management side of Wedgewood. And I've been doing the same thing ever since 1992.”

Wedgewood Team

“There’s just four of us on the Team – but if I may brag on the crew, a highly productive crew. Tony Guerrerio, Michael Quigley and Chris Jersan and I make up the team. Tony’s primary role is as portfolio manager for our older private family relationships that go as far back prior to Tony founding Wedgewood Partners in 1988. Michael Quigley has been with Wedgewood since interning in high school. He is an ‘old,’ very experienced forty year-old since he has been on the team since 2006. Chris Jersan joined Wedgewood in 2016. Chris has extensive investment experience as both analyst and portfolio management since entering the business in 1998. Michael, Chris and I wear the CFA hats. We are all analysts and portfolio managers – essentially generalists. Given that our focused portfolio typically contains just 20 stocks I want the entire team to have a ‘career-ownership stake’ in the entire portfolio. As CIO I have veto power. The culture of the team is one of intense collaboration on security analysis and portfolio management. Key too is making fewer but more impactful decisions, plus making sure there aren’t too many cooks in the kitchen.”    

Mental Frameworks

Every successful active manager has a competitive edge. And it must be repeatableFocus is our edge. We have layered in a synthesis of the classic tenets of both growth company and value investing. Specifically, we want to own a select list of companies that are competitively advantaged earning high returns on capital, but also have the ability to reinvest a healthy portion of retained earnings at continued high rates of capital. We then try to have patience to buy at intelligent valuations. Rinse and repeat. But not too often.  Our annual portfolio turnover is typically between 20 to 25%.

We embrace the founding philosophical thoughts and wisdom from the greats like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Benjamin Graham, Charlie Ellis, Sir John Templeton and such, plus the focused greats of our era. Price is what you pay, value is what you get rings true with everything we do here at Wedgewood.”

Tech Investing

Investing in ‘technology’ stocks has evolved over the years. Particularly in the so-called capital ‘V’ value crowd. I think some of these mental frameworks like circle of competence and moats and all these other Buffett, Munger type of attributes of how you should think and act are wonderful, but sometimes I think maybe people take them to extremes.

It wasn't that long ago the value investing mindset was ‘there's no such thing as value in tech, period. Technology stocks don’t have ‘moats.’  You don't know what the business models are going to look like, so how can you even estimate five or ten years out’. Only a rare specialist will possess a ‘circle of competence’ investing in tech.   

When you think back to Buffett's early aversion to tech, you've got to go back in time. Buffett made that great call to shut down his partnership in '68 and he has talked often about the conglomerates which all blew up back then. Of course there was the '73, '74 brutal market decline – really a long, slow-motion crash. But before that I think maybe a little bit less known, which I can't help but think had a significant impact on Buffett, was the tech crash of 1968 through 1970. Stocks like NCR, EDS, Control Data, Mohawk Data, that were largely hardware tech, which back in the day wasn't so much personal computing, it was tech for businesses fell 70 to 80%. It was cyclical, it was cutting edge CapEx and as the economy headed into a little bit of a recession the first thing that probably gets cut is this new tech stuff, ‘let's cut the orders for IBM, et cetera’. Even the ‘blue-chip’ tech stocks got smoked.  Texas Instruments, IBM, General Instruments, Polaroid, Xerox.  Of course the ‘Too Many Fred’ conglomerates like Litton, LTV, Levin-Townsend and Kidde literally vanished.

If you think back to the fact of how much tech was really hardware, enterprise hardware before software. And even with Microsoft in the early days of software, it was kind of boom-bust, you didn't have this subscription stuff. You would buy software and you'd get your floppy disk and then when the company came out with their new improved version a year and a half later, they did everything they could to get you to buy that. So, I get all of the elements of tech is hard to figure out, but maybe in terms of evolution, tech has evolved. Tech is very different these days and tech has vastly more consumer discretionary and non-discretionary attributes.

But for the longest time, too many in the value crowd said, ‘If Buffett can’t figure out tech, then who am I to even try?’ It became a crutch.

Well, fast forward today, and much has changed. ‘Tech’ has become quite common place across the investment style spectrum. Heck, even notable ‘deep value’ guru Seth Klarman at Baupost currently has big positions in both Facebook and Google. Even Buffett took a swing at IBM building a $14 billion position in the stock by 2015. His IBM position was notable still for being, at the time, his largest equity position by cost ever – even eclipsing his $13 billion, 500 million cost stake in Wells Fargo. IBM was a bust for him, but not to be deterred, he immediately started building a mammoth position in Apple. His cost in Apple peaked in 2018 at $36 billion.  

Speaking of Apple, we first invested in Apple in '05. It wasn't that long ago obviously that Apple was mainly hardware and some software and people viewed it as classic hardware tech, maybe a bit consumer discretionary tech. It really wasn't doing much enterprise business. Then all of a sudden, the iPod appears and boom, then here comes the iPhone and the evolution of Apple to a consumer staple began in earnest. Heck, the early iPods and iPhones were always at my kid's heads. To my kids, it wasn't even discretion, it was a utility. Sauerkraut and asparagus are discretionary to my children (laughs). So Apple's a great example I think of how tech has morphed, and next thing you know, Buffett has a multi-billion dollar position in Apple, you know, the guy who swore off technology.

I'm 59 now. I'm lucky that I got started at a pretty young age, but someone who's a portfolio manager today at a so-called value fund, if they want to call themselves that, and they're 35 or 40, I’m not sure they have any hesitancy to invest in tech, like my early generation did. It's been interesting to see how tech has evolved. In the very early days automobiles were ‘tech,’ look at say Progressive, what would Progressive’s business model look like today if they didn't whole heartily embrace tech – particularly telematics? Heck, advanced telematics is now table stakes in auto insurance.”

Evolution as an Investor

“Where we have evolved, and I think every investor has had to evolve is the Fed’s growing influence in financial markets, even back to the infamous Greenspan Put back in the late 1980’s. Back in the day the phrase ‘Don’t Fight the Fed’ was stamped on rookies’ foreheads on the first day in investing boot camp. We can thank Marty Zweig for those pearls of wisdom.  When one looks back on the DotCom boom/bust and the housing boom/bust and today with QE Infinity, it seems that the Fed has become both the arsonist and the fireman. Prior to say 2012, before central bankers barked ‘do whatever it takes’ to today’s yield control, when interest rates were allowed to find more free-market based levels, if a business was growing at say 12%, then the max P/E one might pay would be a high-teen multiple, certainly no more than say 22X unless it was a truly exceptional company. Fast forward today, 35 to 40X is the new 22X in the zero. It’s not the ‘Powell Put’ any longer, it’s become the ‘Powell Trampoline’.

And so what we've done over the last number of years is we have not been as steadfast to sell a stock outright because of valuations, we've been slower to trim it and conversely pay up a bit and build positions more slowly too. That said, we’ve maintained the discipline to sell even the best of businesses when valuations get absurd. Such was the case of our sale on NVIDIA last September.

When you look at the current valuation of our portfolio, if somebody were to have a crystal ball and they were to show me today the valuation, say, on a trailing or forward basis, if you would show me what the valuation is today, say, 10 years ago, certainly 15 years ago, I would have thought I’d gone mad.

But I think that's been a rational, intelligent adjustment to make. Let's face it, growth companies tend to be longer duration assets. Interest rates get lower, the valuation gets higher. We've learned or adjusted to the environment.  Of course, the catch is that we all know if Powell & Company announce on morning, ‘no more QE’ we all know what would happen to the stock market. It would be October 19th, 1987, The Sequel.”

Debt Levels

“If you look at a median or weighted average calculation of the debt of the companies that we own, it's never been higher than it is today over the past, since we’ve been doing this since 1992, but it hasn't been excessive. If debt capital is the cheapest capital, use it. If your equity is the cheapest, use it. Look at how successful Apple has been, borrowing super cheap money to buy back cheap enough stock to enhance their earnings per share. But Apple is the exception. Most C-Suites are terrible at capital allocation and dreadful at value-destroying share buybacks.” 

Holding Great Business Through Thick And Thin

“I need to have a page in our pitch book on the top 10 worst investment decisions at Wedgewood Partners in our 29-year history. And the one thing they all have in common, it's not necessarily valuation, it's we didn't understand how good and how resilient the business model was. We owned Home Depot for quite a while and we thought there were some problems, and there were for a few quarters or so, but we didn't get back in. Medtronic, same type of thing, Microsoft, Intuitive Surgical and United Healthcare and Amazon and Analog Devices and Apple Materials! I will admit to you, one of the hardest things when you're managing public money is on the one hand you have to take the long- term view, but you've got this quarterly score card, yearly scorecard, and I'd be less than honest if it hasn't affected us from time to time. When I think of the money that we left on the table in some of these stocks, it would have ... well, the numbers would have been even better.”

Banks As Growth Companies

“We've never invested in what I would call really deep cyclical companies like a Caterpillar or a John Deere, but in times past we have invested in more economically sensitive businesses like banks. That said, but only banks that are considerably superior to their peers. Years past we have owned the old Norwest, then Wells Fargo; the old Cherry Hill, New Jersey based Commerce Bancorp, U.S. Bancorp and MTB Bank. We own First Republic right now. If you look at their growth numbers, if you didn't know what they did, and you just looked at their numbers your jaw would be drop once you found out it’s a bank. They are incredible operators. An amazing franchise.”

New Ideas and Studying 13F’s

Myself and our team, we're always digging up new names. Always looking for that emerging diamond in the rough. One of the areas that we are constantly on the lookout for are growing mid cap companies that are doing really well. On their way to becoming a large cap stock. The minimum market cap that we would consider is $10 to $15 billion. So part and parcel of our research bench are those smaller companies that are breaking into the large cap area that we can own.

Another area we're always looking at the competitors of the stocks we currently own. Years ago we owned Intel for a long time, from that we became familiar with Micron Technology. While that didn't work out for us that well, from that experience, we came across Linear Technology, which is probably one the greatest business models I've ever seen, particularly for a semiconductor company. Linear’s voodoo analog design engineers were the 1927 Yankees.

The last area we look at is that we study 13F’s. There's a lot of smart people in this business, very smart people and I keep a watch list of many investment firms that I respect and I'm always curious to see their 13F’s, It keeps you honest and humble. And so ideas can come from a lot of different areas, but those are the big ones.”

Position Sizing

“Over the last couple of years we haven’t had much chance to swing large on new portfolio positions. We usually initiate a position at two, two and a half, maybe three percent in the hopes that we can continue to build it. Typically, we're trying to buy companies when maybe the industry's out of favor or maybe the company has hiccuped a little bit and we want to get in at decent valuation and hope to own more. So in a 20 stock portfolio in our minds, a 5% weighting is average, 7%, 8%, 9% is large. We won't own anything over 10%. And then anything under 4% is considered on the smaller side.

Very key as a focus investor all of our stocks in the portfolio have a higher weighting than the weighting in a style benchmark or the S&P 500. It's high conviction focus, high active share so why waste time with tiny positions that are either benchmark weight or too small to move the performance needle. What's challenging for a lot of managers is the likes of Apple, Microsoft and Amazon are so gigantic, unless you run a focused portfolio, even if it's one of your top holdings, chances are it's just a benchmark weight. In the Russell 1000 growth, I think the top six stocks are 40% of the benchmark.”

Focused Investing - Diversify by Business Model

“We contend focused investing doesn't have to be risky if you stick with higher quality companies, however, we think a more intelligent way to diversify is to diversify by business model. So obviously Progressive has nothing to doing with Apple in terms of their business model. We're not going to own four or five semiconductor companies, we're not going to own four or five medical device companies. We've been a long-term investor in Visa. We've never owned MasterCard at the same time, because our thinking is those business models - there are some differences on the debit side of things - but they're alike enough that if something goes wrong with Mastercard it is unlikely that Visa escapes unharmed. So the last thing we want in our portfolio is when we make our inevitable mistakes, we don't want pin action in other parts of the portfolio.”

Stock Sell-Offs

“I've got plenty of scars too when we haven't gotten it right. I remember one of the early ones, when I joined Wedgewood, I guess it was Spring of 1993. ‘Marlboro Friday’, when Philip Morris came out on a Friday morning and said, ‘We've got to cut prices, we're losing market share to some of our competitors.’ It wasn't really an expensive stock at that time, but the next trade it's down 25%. Wall Street is pretty good of ripping the band-aid off. Rooting for a stock to go down runs against the grain, but some of those opportunities in hindsight have been wonderful. Again, it's going to hurt near term in a 20 stock portfolio, but when we can take a 5% holding that gets banged up someday, now it's a 3.5% weighting, and we can make it a 7% weighting and then we're right after that, when we look back on that difficulty that day or that week, when stocks blow up like that on a hiccup, it's not a fatal hiccup, but the valuation is pricey, the damage gets done pretty quick.”

Now, the ones that really hurt is where the business model has gone terribly wrong and oftentimes it could be fraud. Back in the day, we owned WorldCom, we got out when the cash flow statements started to look a little bit goofy, but we didn’t suspect fraud. Same thing with Lucent Technologies. If management wants to cook the books eventually it comes out. But those are episodes that you have to deal with. Fortunately, we've got scars, but they haven't put that dagger in our heart.

The thing that I probably admire the most are individuals who have been doing this for a long, long time, because without fail,
they've all been hit by stock blow-ups and dusted themselves right off. Think of that book by Philip Carret, ‘A Money Mind at 90’, I mean, are you kidding me? I hope they pull me out of my office in a pine box when I'm 90, that's awesome. I don't care what profession you're in, if you can write a book on what you've done when you're at 90 years of age and you're still doing it, well, how cool is that?”

Berkshire Hathaway

We sold our Berkshire Hathaway stock in 2019 after owning the stock in size since January 1999. We sold a third of our position in late May 2019 and the rest soon after in early August. All told, Berkshire stock gained about 370% over those +20 years.  The gain in the S&P 500 was about 235%. Investing in Berkshire and attending many annual meetings was a further education beyond reading and studying Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. A highlight of my career. The stock was terrific for our clients. 

On the first trim of Berkshire, we bought shares in Motorola Solutions (MSI). Since then (mid-May), Berkshire stock is slightly ahead of MSI, gaining about 44% versus 41% for MSI. After more buys of MSI, the stock today is our 3rd largest holding. The final sale of Berkshire really moved the needle for us. With those sale proceeds we increased our long-held position in Alphabet (GOOGL) by almost two-thirds to an 8% weighting and initiated a new position in NVIDIA (NVDA). Since then (as of mid-May again) GOOGL has gained about 90%, double that of Berkshire. GOOGL is currently our largest position at 9.6%. NVIDIA would turn out to be a moonshot. Over the course of the NVDA position we added to our original position once, trimmed twice and sold the stock in early September 2020. On the final sale of NVDA, the stock outperformed Berkshire over our holding period 215% versus 4%. Finally, we rolled the last NVDA sale proceeds into a new position in First Republic Bank (FRC). Since that purchase, FRC has gained about 67% and Berkshire Hathaway stock has gained about 39%.

Our sale thesis on Berkshire Hathaway was three-fold. First, too many capital allocation miscues. In a world of Fed-induced zero cost of capital, plus untold billions in private equity, Berkshire has long been at a competitive disadvantage in bagging gazelles and elephants. Compounding this problem, Mr. Buffett refuses to compete in investment banker-led buyout auctions and his disdain for leverage, typically a good thing, has all but rendered Mr. Buffett to, well, play solitaire while deal-making booms around he and Mr. Munger. Quite frankly, the phone rings more for the lonely Maytag repairman than it does in Omaha these days. Relatedly, we had long, long been an advocate for Buffett & Co. to cool the elephant hunting and bag the elephant in their backyard Omaha Zoo – Berkshire shares themselves (laughs). 

Capital allocation miscues, well, they've starting to add up - Precision Castparts, Kraft Heinz, Lubrizol, IBM and Wells Fargo.  On the equity portfolio let’s give credit where credit is due. Berkshire’s huge position in Apple was a terrific purchase and in elephant size as well. It really moved the needle. However, the lack of omission in the equity portfolio in large holdings of ‘Buffett-esque’ circle of competence stocks like Mastercard, Visa, Alphabet, Costco and Microsoft are head-scratchers. I understand Mr. Buffett’s reasoning on Miscrosoft that he didn’t want to take advantage of his friendship with Bill Gates, but that doesn’t square with his long friendship with Tom Murphy, key in delivering Mr. Buffett’s 1980’s-1990’s ABC/CapCities/Disney/GEICO masterstroke.  

The fact that Mr. Buffett looks like he has called off elephant hunting in lieu of buying back Berkshire stocks also reduces another related risk, that of complexity. At what point does a huge conglomerate become too big, too complex for Greg Abel to effectively manage? The supposed good news for shareholders after years of conglomeration are the seven or eight Fortune 500 sized companies within Berkshire. The bad news on this conglomeration is that Greg Abel is ultimately responsible that they are all managed well.  Tall order.  

I get the idea of ‘management by abdication’ long espoused by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, but perhaps a little less abdication and a little more, what?, usurpation?, may have kept BNSF from underperforming Union Pacific, or GEICO underperforming Progressive. And speaking of GEICO, it’s been a year and a half since portfolio manager Todd Combs was named CEO of GEICO. I may be mistaken, but I thought Combs was to be a temporary CEO.  

The second part is the deteriorating quality of too many businesses within the Berkshire conglomerate, particularly in their MSR (Manufacturing, Service and Retailing) division. Outside of the recent addition of Clayton Homes in this segment, it is easy to conjecture that this group barely earns its cost of capital. We would know for sure if Mr. Buffett would provide a balance sheet for this segment. That said, the other key parts of the conglomerate are better than the average business. Again, BNSF is good, but under-performing Union Pacific. GEICO's is good, but underperforming Progressive. Berkshire Energy is fantastic, particularly on the tax credit side and their continued policy of reinvesting all of their earnings – quite unlike other large utilities. But here's the rub, you don't need Berkshire Hathaway or Mr. Buffett to get the ‘best of Berkshire.’ Who doesn’t own Apple these days? Instead of GEICO you can get Progressive on your own. Instead of Burlington Northern you can get Union Pacific on your own.  Replacing Berkshire Energy would be difficult because they're reinvesting in all their earnings, they don't pay a dividend and they have all of these tax credits. In a tax-exempt account, you can maybe buy a utility ETF and reinvest the dividends as a replacement proxy of Berkshire Energy.

The third, quite honestly, I think as the years go by now, there's significant management risk, succession risk. Mr. Buffett’s and Mr. Munger’s cognitive abilities and stamina continues to amaze, but unfortunately Father Time won’t be denied.  

Maybe one last thought on Mr. Buffett; I've have the greatest respect for Mr. Buffett.  I wouldn’t be in this business since 1986 without him as a guiding light. Mr. Buffett chooses his words carefully, both spoken and written. And I've certainly noticed, it's been remarked by many others too, it wasn't long ago, a few years ago, where he stated at annual meetings, essentially, ‘We think we have a collection of businesses that should do better against the S&P 500.’ Those words are gone. More recently the verbiage was ‘Maybe we'll keep pace with the S&P 500.’  Those words seem to be gone too. Even after the strong run of Berkshire stock versus the market since last June, the stock is still considerably behind the S&P 500 over the past three and five years. There's probably less downside in the stock relative to the S&P 500, maybe. But quite frankly, the people who hire us, want us to beat the S&P 500 and I don't think Berkshire, particularly at current valuations and its collection of businesses, will. The S&P 500, it's tough to beat, even for the best of us. I think it's going to be much tougher for an overdiversified conglomerate that isn't growing that much more than GDP. Mr. Buffett warned shareholders long ago the performance deadening perils of size. Shareholders will never again see examples of Mr. Munger’s ‘lollapalooza’ dynamism at Berkshire such as the brilliant transaction path of ABC/CapCities/Disney/GEICO/Coca-Cola.

After an incredible two decades in the stock for our clients, too many of the former competitive advantages of Buffett & Co. at Berkshire later, in our view, became disadvantages. That’s why we sold.”

Influential Books

“I finished school in late 1985 where I’d been fortunate to have a very influential investment professor, who was a stock market junkie. He dispensed with all of the textbook stuff and he just talked about the stock market. He was instrumental in pointing me to outside reading, outside of textbooks. And I was fortunate to get my hands on, in the early '80s, the classic 1980 book by John Train, The Money Masters. That was my first exposure to Buffett, Templeton, Graham, Carret, Rowe Price. It became an obsession literally overnight. I was hooked - hook, line and sinker. I got into the brokerage business in early 1986, that's when Peter Lynch's first book came out, and I didn’t want to be a salesman anymore. I wanted to be a stock picker, I wanted to be a portfolio manager, I wanted to be an analyst. 

Today we in the business are blessed with many classic, must read books. We get to sit on the broad shoulders of the greats. The Intelligent Investor; chapter 8 on margin of safety, chapter 20 introduces the concept of Mr. Market, those are must reads – every year too. But some of the early books, all of Train’s books obviously, Buffett's shareholder and his partnership letters. Even today, I'll go back and and I'll pull up say history 1981 shareholder letter, and though it’s a delightful trip down memory lane, it's still refreshing to read. It’s batting practice. Buffett’s such a great writer and it's like that old textbook ... It's like an old friend and you get to have that conversation again with that old friend.

Anything Charlie Ellis wrote. His Loser’s Game and The Paradox are among the pantheon of must reads.

But the one book that I have already mentioned that probably made the biggest impact on my career in those early formidable years back in the day was Peter Lynch's ‘One Up on Wall Street’. My two takeaways was when Peter Lynch went into some detail that even in his best years, his stock ideas, he batted just .500, one of the great investors of all time and he’s admitting that half of his stock picks don’t work out. What an eye opener. It was liberating, it really was. 

When I first got into this business, like many, I wanted perfection, I wanted every stock to work.  All the best have the proper ego and intelligence to take a loss and move on. So here's one of the greatest of all time saying, "Hey folks, half my ideas didn't work out." And then related to that, when he would say, "The worst thing that can happen is if the stock goes to zero." Now, if you're managing public money and you have too many of those, you're going to have to find another line of work, I get it. But then Lynch said, ‘The best thing that can happen is a stock may double or quadruple,’ his famous ten-bagger. 

Here comes some scars. Micron Technology, we bought that stock in March 1996, I think it was March 15, 1996. It never seemed to go up. The big demand for computer memory needed for Windows 95 and the new Pentium cpu was priced in. And DRAM surplus came on like Niagara Falls. Again, on any given day the stock wouldn't go up, and we bought some more, and more. At the same time, I'm looking at this company called Linear Technology, a completely different business model. So about six months later, we sucked it up, and we sold Micron Technology to buy Linear Technology and our clients were like, ‘Wait a minute, you're selling what technology to buy what technology, are you kidding me?’ But in the big scheme of things, I think we lost 40%, 45% on Micron and it stung, no doubt about it, but that 50% loss in one stock, hopefully we learned from it, pales in comparison to the money we made in Linear Technology. And so Peter Lynch's book, among other wonderful anecdotes he had in there, it took the pressure off me. I didn't have to be perfect and I stopped trying to be perfect, and if I stuck with the better businesses, even if I, in hindsight, I found out that I maybe paid a little bit too much for it, a growing, best of breed business often bails you out.

Summary

You can see how Rolfe’s snowball has both first gathered and then continued to gather snow. His success has been earned over long years and it’s clear that his humility in admitting investment mistakes, his openness to the thoughts and opinions of others, and his willingness to challenge those opinions - even some of the greats - have all contributed to that investment success.

I’m incredibly grateful to David for both his time and his incredible insights and look forward to the next time we can speak. In the meantime, I hope some of the insights above can help your snowball grow.

Further Reading:
Wedgewood Partners Investor Letters.

Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest
* NEW * Visit the
Blog Archive

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER


Master Series: Francois Rochon

Let’s face it, for most, achieving decent returns from investing can be remarkably difficult at times. Achieving consistent returns is even more so, and outperforming the markets over the long term is harder still. Few investors can do it. Francois Rochon is one of those who can and has; his Rochon Global portfolio1 (that serves as a model for clients at Giverny Capital) has delivered a 15.3%2 annual compound return for nearly three decades, outperforming the benchmark3 by more than five percent per annum. By 2020’s year end, the Rochon Global portfolio’s cumulative return since inception in 1993 stands at 4,969% versus the benchmark’s 1,103%.

While Francois carries a relaxed demeanor, it masks the emotional fortitude he possesses that is required to navigate challenging market conditions. No better example of his rational composure comes to mind than during the pandemic induced collapse of global financial markets last year. In the midst of the crisis, Francois penned a 2-page memo to his partners reminding them that their portfolio of companies had the capacity to weather the crisis and he implored them not to be influenced by stock market fluctuations. In the eye of the storm, it was a lighthouse guiding investors; the Giverny portfolio had been crafted to survive the most treacherous swells, provided investors could avoid the rocks of emotion. A recount of the most important market corrections of the last sixty years and their subsequent recoveries made clear that smooth sailing ahead was inevitable [see table below].

“It is only those who sell in panic in declines who become the real losers of the volatility inherent in financial markets.” Francois Rochon - March 16, 2020

Giverny Capital Letter - 16 March 2020.

Giverny Capital Letter - 16 March 2020.

Sage advice indeed.

Francois’ genuine humility is evident in everything he does. A few years back, after reaching out to him about content for the MastersInvest site, Francois invited us to meet with him in Omaha while we were attending Berkshire’s AGM. He willingly gave us his time while we were there, and we were able to discuss a wide range of topics and learn more about his thinking, his investment philosophy and the practical art of investing.

A few weeks ago we had the opportunity to chat with Francois once more, and gain his insights into how he sees the world, some opportunities he’s finding attractive and collect some timeless investment wisdom4.

Market Crises [Covid 19]

“When valuations are low and pessimism is high and you have a long term horizon I think you have to at least stay invested. If you have available capital you just have to have faith and invest.”

Current Valuations

“I always say, high valuations, most of the time, translate into lower returns. You have to accept that. You can justify paying 50 or 60 or 70 times earnings, as some stocks trade today, by expecting many years of high growth and discounting them with a very low interest rate. But that also means that you'll have lower returns if you discount them with a lower discount rate. I believe that there are many stocks that are expensive and many quality names are trading at pretty high ratios. You have to accept that if you want to own those names you'll probably have lower returns going forward. I’m not saying negative returns but for the S&P 500 in general, I think it's going to be hard to earn a total return in the next five years of more than let’s say 6% annually, which is okay but not as high as it's been in the last decade, that's for sure.”

Opportunity Set

“We still, as always, can find great companies that trade at reasonable valuations. If you build a portfolio of such securities, I think you can do better than the average. I take the example of Markel for instance. I think Markel is a great company and the market doesn't really see it that way. I think that's one example of a company I don't believe it's trading at high valuation at all.”

Financials

“In general, everything that is seen as interest rate sensitive or financial, has come back [up] a little bit but is still out of favor. Banks or insurance companies, they're not what young and dynamic investors want to own because that's not really exciting. But you know I always say, I'll favor stable, durable, competitive advantaged, great management, good return on equity, lower valuations and I will live with the ‘dull’ nature of the business.”

“We own two banks, Bank of American and JP Morgan. I think those two banks are very well managed, they have solid balance sheets. Their stocks have rebounded lately but I still think if you own them for the next five years you'll do okay.”

Tech Stocks

“I'm not against owning technology names. I mean I've owned some of them for many, many years. If I go back to the first years like 1994, I think back then I owned Intel and Sun Microsystems. One lesson I learned is that if you look at Sun Microsystems for instance, it was a great company in 1994, I bought it at very reasonable valuation and I had a very good return. While the company still exists, as part of Oracle now, it's not as dominant. It's far from as dominant as it was 20 years ago.”

Facebook & Google

“I think the situation with Facebook and Google is a little different. I don't really see them as technology companies, they offer a service and they've built this incredible network. I think they've got an extraordinary brand. I don't see them as sensitive to technology change as a company that sells hardware or software.”

“If you look at Facebook, it's trading at around 25 times this year’s earnings. It's still growing pretty fast. I think it can grow between 15 to 20% a year going forward for the next five years. It's a very reasonable valuation. These are clean earnings, meaning that everything that has to be expensed has been expensed - like stock options for instance. That's not the case with many companies that even trade at 40, 50 times earnings [non-GAAP, without stock options expensed earnings which I'm not a big fan of. I'll do my own calculation of earnings and adjust them for the stock option expenses]. If you look at Facebook, I think the valuation is very reasonable for such an outstanding company.”

Progressive

“If you look at Progressive, the auto insurance company, they've gained market share in the last 20 years and they're as strong, their model is as strong today as it was 20 years ago. There's many technology companies you can't say that at all. How durable is the competitive advantage is a key question you have to ask when you invest in any security.”

Apple

“I think Apple is more than just a hardware product. It's really an ecosystem where there's the phone, there's all these services and the fact is today, compared with 20 years ago, your cell phone is much more important to your daily life than it used to be. So many little things in your daily lives are built into your phone. It's a big thing to change your phone today. It wasn't a big thing 15 or 20 years ago to change a phone but today it is. I think Apple’s dominance is great. The thing you have to ask yourself, once you're so dominant, how are you going to come up with a lot of growth going forward. That's a question I think you have to ask with any already dominant businesses.”

Finding Opportunities

“I love baseball and so I watch, I don't know how many games a year. I don't do it because I want to learn about baseball or be a better baseball connoisseur, it's really because I enjoy watching the game. After a while you kind of know almost all the important players, the best players, the best pitchers, and the ones that have a better batting average. You know about those players because you're interested in this game. It's similar with an art collection. I'm interested in everything in the history of art, I try to go to every major show and visit the museums in Montreal, New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles. After a while I know a lot of artists and great artists. I think I can have a general view on which ones are the most important artists, the ones I believe are really the outstanding ones that will still be considered important in 50 years.

It's a similar process when you invest in companies. You look at almost every company, even private ones, but you're more interested in the public ones so you want to learn about every important public company in the world. When you find something, a company that looks exciting, that looks like they've got this great business, you want to understand why its so great, and what's the source of their greatness. You find CEOs that you admire like Mark Leonard at Constellation Software. When you've read a lot of annual reports I think you can find, you can see when there's something special about a company because you've seen so many of them; you can find one that really stands out. It's really a daily process for the last, in the case of investments, 28 years. Just looking daily at a lot of companies because I enjoy the process. I enjoy discovering companies and learning about the history of companies and I am always on the quest of finding new companies because finding a new company is exciting.”

“When I travel in the US, I'll go to a new restaurant chain I've never heard about and try it. If I like the food, if I like the experience, I'll say lets look at the stock. But sometimes just reading a friend’s annual letter and, "Oh, my friend bought this new company and I don't know about it so I'll read about it." I know how he thinks so since I share a similar investment philosophy as him, it might be at least worth reading. That's one source of ideas of course.”

Investment Edge

“I think a lot of opportunities in the stock market arise not because we have more insights into understanding businesses. I think a lot of people can pretty quickly identify the great businesses. I think our edge as investors is really our behaviour, it’s not to focus too much on the short term but really we're there for the next five to ten years. So even a great company can have some periods of uncertainties in their business or short term problem or if there is a recession and that makes the company growth rate be a little lower for a while; if we think the fundamentals over the long term are intact, it can be an opportunity for us. So our edge is really our behaviour and our long term horizon which is so rare today because people want good results in a very short time period. Of course, people can do whatever they want as an investment style; but we believe that the short term horizon of others is probably at the source of many of our investment opportunities because we have a longer term horizon than most people.”

Autohome

“There's some opportunity in the internet and technology sector, Facebook is one. We own a Chinese company called Autohome, which is by far the leader in China, a website where you can do some research about buying a new car or some car related products. It's a great company and I think Wall Street is a little worried about a Chinese company listed in the US so the stock has gone down at least 10 to 15% recently. If you look at Autohome’s valuation, I think it trades at something like 20 times this year's earnings. I think it can be a 15, 16, 17% grower going forward. It’s very well managed, the balance sheet is very good and the valuation is very reasonable. It's at a discount to the S&P valuation ratio.”

“Where did I find Autohome? I like to read annual letters from great managers. I think it was a top holding of a money management firm I admire in the US. I'd never heard about that company so I read the annual letter; I went to the website. I thought it was a good company and we talked to management and we did all the research and decided to buy shares.”

On Berkshire

“Warren Buffett is such a good steward of capital, he doesn't do anything risky. He doesn't use debt, he doesn't acquire companies by paying very high ratios. So of course in the last five years it's been hard for him to acquire companies because many other acquiring entities are using debt, are paying high ratios - the competition has been much less prudent than he is. Knowing Warren, that won't change his approach. Preservation of capital I think is still a cornerstone of his approach. He used to say that the first rule is don't lose money and rule number two rule is don't forget rule number one. He still is very prudent. This prudence has been probably one reason he has so much cash on the balance sheet, I think it's something like 140 billion dollars. That's a lot of capital because I don't know exactly the numbers but it would represent something, at least a quarter of the equity. So when a quarter of the equity is invested in something that yields close to 0%, it's hard for the whole thing to earn 10 to 12%. The rest has to compensate and it's very hard to compensate that much. That's been a drag on the return of Berkshire.”

“At some point I think until [company] valuations come back a little bit to more reasonable levels, I think the best thing he can do is buy back stock and return the excess capital to shareholders. If he continues to do that, and he's been doing that for the last two quarters very aggressively, I think it's nine billion per quarter in the last two quarters. From what the annual letter said he’s still doing this in the first quarter of 2021. That's $36 billion a year so that's about 7% of the market value of Berkshire. Well if you return 7% per year going forward, I think it's going to be a better stock than it was in the last few years, at least relative to the S&P 500 so I still think the whole thing can continue to grow at 5 or 6% annually at least. But if you add a 7% buyback, it's really a good return of capital to the shareholders. I think that Berkshire can do something like 12% going forward.”

Evolving

“The world is always changing and you have to evolve with it. If you don't evolve you'll probably stay behind, very slowly but surely. You have to accept that you have to always rethink everything and do postmortems on investments on what went well and what went wrong. We're doing that on at least a yearly basis with our yearly medals for the top three mistakes.”

Mistakes & Margin of Safety

“Year after year what I realise is most mistakes I've made is not paying perhaps a higher price than I should have for great companies. I think I probably have already evolved on that. I'm ready to pay 20 times earnings for good growth companies but sometimes there's not that much difference between 20 times and 25 times. There is between 20 and 60 but between 20 and 25, perhaps I'm trying to be a little too precise, or to prudent, and sometimes miss the big picture that if you find a great growth company and it doubles its earnings every five years, well perhaps valuation to some degree should be flexible a little bit. So I probably have evolved a little bit over the years with that.”

“You have to be careful because how much do you stretch? You can stretch to 25 and then 30 and then 40, I mean it never ends. You have to accept you still want a margin of safety and I think that's the key element in The Intelligent Investor and when you read Ben Graham’s writings. Seventy years later, I believe that the key lesson from Ben is still the importance of margin of safety.”

“The margin of safety is not just in the price you pay, it's also in the quality of the business, it's in the balance sheet of the business and the accounting and also in terms of the quality of top management. When we bought shares of Constellation Software, I don't remember how much we paid but we paid a reasonable valuation, I think 18 or 19 times earnings. To us the real margin of safety was Mark Leonard. We thought he was a great investor, a great manager and I mean to us it was not the valuation that was the key criteria it was really because of management.”

Portfolio Companies

“I think if you look at the portfolio, there's some differences in the style of the businesses but they all have similar themes. They are all great business, already profitable, already dominant in their industry, that have good growth prospects - not 40% a year - but between let's say 8 and 20% more or less. They have good balance sheets, we like the management and we think they're good capital allocators. All the companies we own, we believe share those characteristics. They're in different industries, they're different sizes. We own some small companies and some very large ones, but they have a similar style of businesses.

I know that I have some colleagues that would say, ‘Well, I invest in this young company that is not profitable yet but if everything goes well it can increase 10 times.’ Well to me that's a little risky. I've seen so many companies disappear over the years and I don't want to own a company that needs to go to the capital markets on a regular basis because either it has too much debt or is not profitable. You never know when there's going to be a financial crisis. I've seen a few of them in the last 28 years. I mean in 2000, 2001, and 2002 when the tech bubble burst it was very, very hard for those technology companies to get new financing. If you look at 2008 or 2009, there were some companies that had some debt and went to the financial markets and couldn't find capital at all. So I don't want to own companies that if there's a crisis or a recession, could be in the weak position of having to raise capital at very bad levels for shareholders or through expensive debt.

To avoid that I just avoid companies that are not profitable or have too much debt on the balance sheet. Even though I see that there is some upside potential, I see the downside in case of a recession or financial crisis because I've seen and I’ve lived through them. So I know they can happen and they will probably... I don't want to use the word conditional because it's not a conditional situation. There'll be recessions, there'll be crisis and I want the portfolio to survive them. We want the companies to be survivors not ones that will need to go to the capital markets at the worst possible time.”

Partner with Management

“There's all sorts of reason why some companies are not properly valued by the stock market. Sometimes it's just because it's non-exciting; a little dull business or a low profile manager. Some CEOs speak very well, they're good salesmen. That’s fine, that’s business. I like to see CEOs as partners because that's really what you are doing when you are buying shares; you're becoming a partner with the top management CEOs. I want partners that are low profile, are really focused on building something for the long run, ideally that are humble. They're not trying to pump up their stock. They want to build wealth over the long run, they're trying to build solid businesses and they know that in the end if the company does well the stock will eventually reflect that. They know that.”

Book Recommendations

“There's the classics of course like the books of Ben Graham, Peter Lynch and Philip Fisher. John Train wrote two good books in the 80’s, ‘The Money Masters’ and ‘The New Money Masters,’ which I liked. William Thorndike wrote the ‘Outsiders’ which was one of my favourite books over the last few years. Larry Cunningham wrote a few books on Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway which I think are very interesting. My friend Guy Spier wrote the book, 'The Education of a Value Investor’.


There's older books such as John Paul Getty’s book, ‘How to be Rich’. It contains a chapter on stock market investing which I think is very good. You can read biographies or autobiographies by great business builders. Many years ago I read the book by David Packard which was very good and Ken Iverson’s, the guy that built Nucor. Bill Gates’ book from 1994 when the internet was just starting called ‘The Road Ahead’ was very good. I’d also recommend a book by S. Cathy Truett who started Chick-fil-A, the chicken burger chain. I thought that book, ‘How did you do it Truett?,’ was really good. I've been hoping that Chick-fil-A becomes a public company since then.”

Summary

Francois’ passion for investing is as obvious as his humility, and is mirrored in his deep interest in both baseball and art. His returns have been nothing short of outstanding over the years and are the envy of many. We’re very grateful to Francois once again for his insights and thoughts on matters. Truly he has painted a masterpiece of his own and we expect that his batting record will only continue to climb in the years to come.




givernydisc.PNG

Further Reading:
‘Investment Masterpieces - Francois Rochon’ - Investment Masters Class, 2017.
Giverny Capital Annual Letters




Follow us on Twitter : @mastersinvest

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER










The Beauty of Stock Markets

Screen Shot 2019-11-10 at 6.42.11 am.png

Step right up, step right up! Welcome to the Stock Market Circus, an unruly bazaar that is absolutely chock full of brazen salespeople, fortune tellers, sham wealth remedies, high-frequency pirates, fallen angels, pigs with lipstick and much, much more. This is a place where crazy things can happen; stocks can take exponential leaps only to then crash and burn, companies that are here today can be gone by tomorrow, and perceived good news that usually brings higher prices might actually trigger shock selling. Its not a place for the faint-hearted; this Circus abounds with metaphors like death spirals, squeezes, collapses and crashes, none of which engenders feelings of security. And if you want to leave, the exits aren’t always big enough. For the uninitiated, this can be a truly scary place.

If you take a step back however, there is beauty to be found in this madness. You just need the right perspective. A few home truths, a grasp of history and an ability to filter out the noise can go a long way to help investors in this respect. Let’s dive in…

Silly Prices

"The beauty of stocks is that they do sell at silly prices from time to time. That's how Charlie and I have gotten rich." Warren Buffett

Buffett likes to remind us that on occasion you will get silly prices in the stock market. That’s the beauty of it. Silly prices are often the result of emotionally charged behaviour rather than anything fundamental. The market’s ease of access and low cost of transacting encourages quick action, hence turning the psychological short cuts that saved our ancestors on the savannah into an impediment to investment success.

When we’re fearful, we look to other people for guidance. Yet, the truth of the matter is they’re just as likely to be acting on their own fears; reacting emotionally rather than rationally.

When you throw in the dominant quantitative and passive funds of today, who’ve no idea what they own and are triggered by price movements, you’ve got a recipe for significant mis-pricing - stock prices become untethered from business value. For those who are able to keep their cool during these situations, opportunity abounds.

"The stock market will offer you opportunities for profit, percentage-wise, that you’ll never see, in terms of negotiated purchase of business." Warren Buffett

“Research has shown that over the last century, U.S. stock prices have been three times more volatile than fundamentals.” Frank Martin

“We believe that shares spend relatively little time at ‘fair value’. Rather, lengthy periods of overvaluation are followed by lengthy periods of undervaluation… Extreme valuation spreads in the equity market aren’t necessarily rare or short-lived.” Marathon AM

Nick Sleep of Nomad Partners recognised that over time, all businesses can be meaningfully mis-priced.

“We can all observe that stock prices, set in an auction market, are more volatile than business values. Several studies and casual observation reveal that individual prices oscillate widely around a central price year in year out, and for no apparent reason. Certainly, business values don’t do this. Over time, this offers the prospect that any business, indeed all businesses, will be meaningfully mis-priced.” Nick Sleep

An analysis by John Huber at Saber Capital highlights this point. Mr Huber shows the average intra-year difference between the high and low of the ten largest stocks in the S&P500 in 2019 was a staggering 44%! [and people talk of an efficient market?]

Stock prices move much more than true values do even in the largest stocks, which by definition causes mis-pricing at times. This isn’t due to a lack of information, it’s simply good old-fashioned human nature, and unlike the price of semiconductors or the value of information, human behaviour is not going to change. The biggest edge is in understanding this simple concept, and then being prepared to capitalise on it when it’s appropriate.” John Huber

Source: Saber Capital Letter Q3 2019.

Source: Saber Capital Letter Q3 2019.

The opportunity conferred by extreme price volatility isn’t lost on the Investment Masters. In many ways, the great investors are arbitrageurs of human nature.

Stock Markets Compound

The long-term history of the US stock market is one of rising prices. A key contributing factor to a rising stock market has been the earnings retained by corporates that are re-invested for the benefit of shareholders.

“Equities can compound in value in a way that investments in other asset classes, such as bonds and real estate, cannot. The reason for this is quite simple: companies retain a portion of the profits they generate to re-invest in the business.Terry Smith

“To report what Edgar Lawrence Smith discovered, I will quote a legendary thinker - John Maynard Keynes, who in 1925 reviewed the book, ‘Common Stocks for Long-Term Investment’, thereby putting it on the map. In his review, Keynes described ‘perhaps Mr. Smith's most important point ... and certainly his most novel point. Well-managed industrial companies do not, as a rule, distribute to the shareholders the whole of their earned profits. In good years, if not in all years, they retain a part of their profits and put them back in the business. Thus there is an element of compound interest operating in favour of a sound industrial investment.’ It was that simple. It wasn't even news. People certainly knew that companies were not paying out 100% of their earnings. But investors hadn't thought through the implications of the point. Here, though, was this guy Smith saying, ‘Why do stocks typically outperform bonds? A major reason is that businesses retain earnings, with these going on to generate still more earnings--and dividends, too.’" Warren Buffett

“In the 1920’s, a brilliant and important book by Edgar Smith, ‘Common Stocks for Long-Term Investment’, became a prime market influence. It was still popular in the fall of 1929, but most people read it too late. Mr. Smith advocated the benefit to corporate growth of the application of retained earnings and depreciation. Thus capital appreciates. The book may have been influential in changing accepted multiples of 10 x earnings to higher multiples of 20 to 30 x earnings.” Roy Neuberger

Retained earnings have propelled American business throughout our country’s history. What worked for Carnegie and Rockefeller has, over the years, worked its magic for millions of shareholders as well.” Warren Buffett

While markets can be volatile, the returns achieved by corporate America have remained remarkably consistent. Free trade, an entrepreneurial spirit and continuous innovation have been the hallmarks of America’s success.

“Historically, US companies increase their profits by about 6-7% per year and pay a dividend of around 2%. This generates an annual return of 8-9% from simply owning a solid group of companies.” Francois Rochon

“Anyone who examines the aggregate returns that have been earned by companies during the postwar years will discover something extraordinary: the returns on equity have in fact not varied much at all.” Warren Buffett

The S&P 500 produces 12% or 13% returns on capital and it retains and reinvests about half of its earnings, and so that should generate 6% or 7% earnings growth over the long run. Then the rest of the earnings can be returned to you as dividends and share repurchases. If you can get 6% earnings growth in the long run, plus a couple percent from dividends and buybacks, then you're going to achieve a high single digit rate of return by owning that asset class in the long run. Obviously, it's going to be very lumpy, but if you have a long term, 10-year plus time horizon, that is the rate of internal compounding that I think American business will continue to achieve over time.” John Huber

Attractive Long Term Returns

Over the long haul the stock market has delivered attractive returns. While the Saber Capital table above makes clear the potential for short-term volatility, the potential for loss diminishes with time. Certainly that’s been the case in history.

The chart below highlights that over the last c150 years, investors who’ve taken a twenty year view have earned positive returns 100% of the time.

“The historical odds of making money in U.S. markets are c50/50 over one-day periods, 68% in one-year periods, 88% in 10-year periods, and (so far) 100% in 20 year periods.” Morgan Housel

Source: Collaborativefund.com - Morgan Housel.

Source: Collaborativefund.com - Morgan Housel.

Not only have investors been blessed with positive returns a good majority of the time, those returns have ordinarily been pretty solid. For context, in the last one hundred years the worst 25-year return in the market was four times capital. More generally, it’s been twelve times or more.

“You want to remind people that the worst 25-year period in the past 100 years was a 4-times return on their capital. Typically, a 25-year investor gets 12 times return or more. So, to me, being able to share that message with our younger analysts, with our shareholders and potential shareholders helps me keep it together when stocks are behaving differently than we anticipate they would.” Bill Nygren

Even stock market crashes fade over time. The worst percentage fall in stock market history, the 1987 crash, is a blip on the long term chart [see below]. What a wonderful friend compounding has been for the long term investor.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1987 Crash [Source; Bloomberg].

Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1987 Crash [Source; Bloomberg].

Asymmetric

It’s been found that humans find symmetrical patterns more attractive than asymmetrical ones. When it comes to the stock market however, it’s the asymmetry that beautiful. When you invest, the most you can lose is 100% of your capital yet the opportunity exists to make multiples of your investment.

“The asymmetric payoff structure (you can make far more if you’re right about a stock than you can lose if you’re wrong) is the fundamental attraction of investing in equity markets.” James Anderson

“One of the interesting dynamics of buying stock in a company is that our downside is known. In the worst case, we can lose 100% of our investment. In the best case, we can make many multiples of our original investment.” Scott Miller

Long Term Gains

To harness the market’s beauty you need to be invested. Sitting on the sidelines won’t earn returns. While short term market moves can be volatile, history has shown investing in high quality businesses has been a winning strategy over the long term.

“I think that this time would be as good as any other time or as bad as any other time. I have been at this business for 40 years now, so I have been through all kinds of times. That’s a long time to be at one trade, and I have done it every day. I couldn’t tell you that I knew any particular day, whether it was today or 10, 15, 20 or 40 years ago that actually would have been the right day for someone to invest. The right thing to do is to enter the investment scene, whether you are just an individual investor, someone who might be approaching it on a career basis, or a professional investor already working to hone your skill set.” David Polen

“All I can tell you as an increasingly experienced investor, is that I have never known a time when people weren’t worried about the sort of issues that you adduce and those people that spent too much time worrying about those issues, didn’t get invested and missed out on a opportunity to protect their wealth against inflation and indeed, to growth their wealth in real terms. So the rational way to deal with these sports of concerns, it may not be the correct thing, but the rational thing is to ignore them and be invested in fine businesses.” Nick Train

“The stock market goes up over time. Developed markets should increase by around 6% p.a. over long periods of time, implying a double every 12 years, a quadruple every 24 years, and so on. If you have a 40 year plus time horizon and an investment opportunity that will go up 8-fold, how much is there to think about? The smart money is invested, not on the side-lines fretting about what to do.” Robert Vinall

Get Rich Slowly

Compounding’s power reveals itself over time. While short term gains may look small, with time they mushroom. You don’t need to hit the ball out the park every year to build long term wealth. In fact, doing so, may increase the risk of losing capital. And losing capital is what impedes compounding. While everyone wants it all today, the world’s best recognise the beauty in getting rich slowly.

“At the beginning of the AGM of the Berkshire Hathaway Company they show this little video and each year Buffett is asked what’s the main difference between himself and the average investor, and he answers patience. And there is so little of it these days. Has anyone heard of getting rich slowly?” Nick Sleep

“The biggest thing about making money is time. You don’t have to be particularly smart you just have to be patient.” Warren Buffett

"The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.” Charlie Munger

“People would rather be promised a (presumably) winning lottery ticket next week than an opportunity to get rich slowly.” Warren Buffett

“Ninety-nine percent of investors shouldn’t try to get rich too quickly; it’s too risky. Try to get rich slowly.” Sir John Templeton

“Small investors who get into trouble, I think, are those who try to get rich quick. They are in and out of the market in a flash and don’t take the time to learn. That’s a dangerous game.” Roy Neuberger

"In investing, time is your friend. The people who make a lot of money in investing are those that buy great businesses, in our case with expanding moats, and they give them time to work for them over 5, 10 and 15 year pulls. All the people that have created a lot of wealth for themselves didn't do it in a week, or 3 months or 6 months. They did it over a generation." Paul Black

“A good summary of investing history is that stocks pay a fortune in the long run but seek punitive damages when you try to be paid sooner. Virtually all investing mistakes are rooted in people looking at long-term market returns and saying, “That’s nice, but can I have it all faster?” Morgan Housel

Summary

On any given day it’s pretty much a coin toss what markets will do, and because of it you must be able to brace yourself for volatility. It’s a function of human nature and that’s not going to change anytime soon. Discard the received dogma that volatility is risk. While most business schools trumpet this notion, the great investors have recognised the beauty in volatile prices - they can present attractive entry points which ordinarily don’t surface in most markets. Little wonder these Investment Masters consider volatility as the friend of the long-term investor.

While there’s little sense to be made in the daily sound bites and market gyrations, as time expands, the markets longer term beauty reveals itself. Companies values compound and together cause markets to rise. You just have to lengthen your perspective to see it.

Whilst we’ve covered some of the attractive features of the stock market, I’m sure you can think of plenty of others; accessing the world’s best management teams, the ability to work from remote locations, not having a boss - there’s plenty more. Successful investing requires the right attitude, perspective and planning; manage your emotions, recognise and respect the power of compounding and exercise patience.

The market has a history of attractive long term returns; all you need to do is step back to see it’s beauty.






Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER


Beyond Investing

beyond.PNG

In 2014, the Nomad Investment Partnership was it, and their last few years of returns were nothing short of astonishing. A 2012 return of 39.8% trumped the MSCI’s 15.8%, and a year later, Nomad clocked up a staggering 62.2% return, decimating the MSCI’s 26.7%. Indeed, in four of their last five years Nomad delivered returns of 40% or more. Without a doubt the partnership founders, Nick Sleep and Qais Zakaria were at the top of their game. Still young, in their mid-40’s, they possessed a magnet for capital via their track record of 20%+ annualised returns. The opportunity to raise billions of capital was there for the taking. Yet, after two decades of investing and fourteen years running Nomad, Sleep and Zakaria decided it was time to hang up their boots. They’d achieved their ‘X-amount’. For them, it was time to move beyond investing.

From the early days, Sleep and Zakaria had mused over a concept they referred to as the ‘X-amount’. This was an amount of money they deemed necessary to pay the bills and have a nice lifestyle. Beyond which, they felt the surplus funds could be an anchor, stripping meaning from their lives by distorting relationships with friends and family and encouraging an indulgent existence.

Like many of the Investment Masters, Sleep and Zakaria recognised the good fortune afforded to successful investors, and took it upon themselves to direct their excess gains towards charitable causes. Both established foundations which continue to benefit from their investing prowess; almost six years on from closing Nomad to external capital, the fund has achieved an average twenty percent return for twenty years.

There is certainly more to life than investing. Caring for the environment, supporting society and helping others less fortunate helps make the world a better place. The rewards of investing are often non-linear, rarely are they commensurate with the commitment, dedication and work required to achieve them. They are unique to the world of investing and with thoughtful application they can support the foundations of a better world.

“My luck was accentuated by my living in a market system that sometimes produces distorted results, though overall it serves our country well. I’ve worked in an economy that rewards someone who saves the lives of others on a battlefield with a medal, rewards a great teacher with thank-you notes from parents, but rewards those who can detect the mis-pricing of securities with sums reaching into the billions. In short, fate’s distribution of long straws is wildly capricious.” Warren Buffett

“Investors can think their way to success without seeming to work in the traditional sense and the payoff in capitalism from stock picking can be extraordinary.” Nick Sleep

One of my favourite sayings is, ‘You can’t take a pin with you.’ Money won’t deliver happiness. Meaning will, however, and many of the world's greatest investors have recognised this. Below are some of the random musings I’ve collected over the years.

Giving Pledge

Screen Shot 2021-03-14 at 7.57.09 am.png

In 2010, Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett created the Giving Pledge, a movement of philanthropists who’ve committed to giving the majority of their wealth to philanthropy or charitable causes, either during their lifetimes or in their wills. In addition to Buffett, many of the Investment Masters have also signed the pledge, including Ray Dalio, Paul Singer, Paul Tudor Jones, Chris Hohn, Bill Ackman, Jim Simons, Mario Gabelli, Seth Klarman, Jeremy Grantham, Ken Langone, David Rubenstein, Tom Steyer, T. Boone Pickens and Julian Robertson.

It’s quite possible Warren Buffett will be remembered more by his philanthropic endeavours than his investing acumen.

“Gifting to Bill Gates his wealth to take on, that was the greatest achievement of Warren Buffett. He’s respected as an investor, but he should be more respected as a philanthropist.” Chris Hohn

Life Lessons

Studying the world’s greatest investors offers not just lessons in investment but lessons for living a successful and fulfilling life. While Buffett is beyond rich, he chooses to reside in a house purchased in 1958 for $31,500, whose value today reflects less than 0.001% of his wealth. Buffett’s favourite restaurant is the low-key local Omaha steak diner, Gorat’s, while his favorite meal remains a burger washed down with a can of Coke.

“I think it’s also probably surprising to people that the money doesn’t matter to him. He made the money sort of by accident because he was really good at doing what he loved, and when you do that particular thing really well, you end up with a whole bunch of money. But it’s really true that he does not care about having a bunch of money.” Susie Buffett [Warren’s daughter]

“When I look at a bunch of stock certificates in a safe deposit box that were put there 50 years ago or so, they have absolutely no utility to me; zero. They can’t do anything for me in life. I mean they can’t let me consume 7,000 calories a day instead of 3,000. There’s nothing they can do. I’ve got everything in the world I want, and I’ve had it for decades. If I wanted something additionally, I’d go buy it.” Warren Buffett

“I could have 10 houses, but, you know, I could buy a hotel to live in, you know. But would I be happier? It would be crazy. Charlie and I both like fairly simple lives.” Warren Buffett

Purpose

People need purpose and meaning in life. One of my favourite books, ‘Man’s Search For Meaning’ was written by Viktor Frankl, a survivor of the Nazi concentration camps. His experience at Auschwitz reinforced a key idea: life is not a quest for pleasure, but a quest for meaning. The greatest task for any person is to find meaning in his or her life.

Screen Shot 2021-03-14 at 8.57.54 am.png

Frankl’s insights are echoed in the empowering stories of James Stockdale and Eddie Jaku. Stockdale was a vice admiral in the US Navy who endured seven and a half years as a Prisoner of War - tortured, isolated in solitary confinement and restrained in leg irons - after being shot down above North Vietnam. Eddie Jaku, also a holocaust survivor, endured seven years of unimaginable horrors across Nazi concentration camps in World War II.

While each of their stories was forged in the extremes of terrible suffering, they highlight a common theme - mankind’s need of purpose.

Inheritance

Without purpose, one’s life lacks meaning. Most people cherish the idea of inheriting a fortune, yet there can be a ‘dark side of wealth’. Another favourite book is ‘Fortune’s Children - the Fall of the House of Vanderbilt.’ In 1877, Cornelius Vanderbilt was the richest man in the world. Fifty years after his death, one of his direct descendants died penniless, and no Vanderbilt was counted among the world’s richest people. The story recounts an extravagant lifestyle of spending by his heirs but also the misery, burden and loneliness that inherited wealth can inflict. By his early sixties, Vanderbilt’s son confessed to his family..

fortune-s-children.jpg

“The care of $200,000,000 is too great a load for my brain or back to bear. It is enough to kill a man. I have no son whom I am willing to afflict with the terrible burden. There is no pleasure to be got out of it as an offset - no good of any kind. I have no real gratification or enjoyments of any sort more than my neighbour on the next block who is worth only half a million. So when I lay down this heavy responsibility, I want my sons to divide it, and share the worry which it will cost to keep it.”

This hasn’t gone unrecognised by many of the world’s most successful investors and business owners.

“I think Kay Graham was quoting her father at the time but — some years back as saying, ‘If you’re quite rich, probably the idea of leaving your children enough so they can do anything, but not enough so they can do nothing, is not a bad formula.’” Warren Buffett

“If you have a lot of money, giving all your money to your kids is a mistake which will deprive them of self-achievement. I’ve given my kids a reasonable sum of money. One made it all on his own, one needed it because he’s a scientist, didn’t make a lot of money, but I wouldn’t give all my money to my kids, it’s just so damaging.” Leon Cooperman

“You can always give all your money to your children, but usually people who inherit great sums may not be as productive citizens as people who don’t inherit as much.” David Rubenstein

“I’m not a big fan of inherited wealth. It generally does more harm than good.” T. Boone Pickens

"My children are in a privileged position. I am willing to give them enough help to do something, but I am not willing to give them enough help to do nothing. Because it would destroy them." Terry Smith

“Do you really want your children to be like those who thought themselves your betters while you struggled? Letting them have too much money is really a lot worse than letting them have too little. I've watched family after family destroyed by excessive distributions to descendants, and by family patriarchs' and matriarchs' attempts to be able to control others' behavior from the grave. With wealth comes power. With power comes the ability to damage. Gifts and inheritances influence those you love most. Inheriting too much money at one time destroys initiative, distorts reality, and breeds arrogance. When the money runs out - as it always does - those left bereft of cash can't cope.” Michael Bloomberg

“We will make sure we’ve given most of our money away by the time we die, with the exception of what we leave to our kids. We want to pass along enough for them to live reasonably well, but not so much that they can do anything foolish with it. We want them to have a roof over their heads, but we also want them to have the meaning in their lives that comes from having to make their own way.” Ken Langone

“Why should men leave great fortunes to their children? If this is done from affection, is it not misguided affection? Observation teaches that, generally speaking, it is not well for the children that they should be so burdened.” Andrew Carnegie

“It is every man’s duty to strive to give his children the best possible equipment for life. But to leave millions to young sons is dangerous.” A.P Giannini

“Inherited wealth is as certain a death to ambition as cocaine is to morality.” William Vanderbilt

Possessions

We live in a society that encourages consumption and materialism. Keeping up with the Jones’ has been a long held ambition of many. The sad truth of this matter is that it’s impossible to keep up; when everyone is striving for more, there is no finish line and the race is eternal. Personal possessions will only keep accumulating over time.

“Possession’s don’t bring anybody happiness and most people don’t believe it until you experience it. Your possessions in many ways can become burdens.” James Dinan 

“Money is a wonderful commodity to have, but the more one possesses, the more involved and complicated become his dealings and relationships with people.” John P Getty

“We should have guys like Sir John Templeton, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger as examples to all of us. The legacy of these men should be the focal point of our lives because it doesn’t take long to realize that money buys nothing of value. Everything that is truly worthy is free. That lesson comes hard to some people, but the sooner it comes, the better.” Frank Martin

“Some material things make my life more enjoyable; many, however, would not… Too often, a vast collection of possessions ends up possessing its owner.” Warren Buffett

“No man actually owns a fortune. It owns him.” A.P Giannini

“The first thing you could do [with money] is you could pleasure yourself. You could buy a plane, you could buy cars, you could buy homes, you could buy art. If you’re an art collector you never have enough money because you can spend $100 million on one canvas. I don’t collect art and I happen to have a view that material possessions brings with it aggravation. I’m a less is more kind of guy.” Leon Cooperman

Health

This one speaks for itself. There’s no such thing as the richest man in a graveyard, so you better ensure you look after yourself while you’re alive.

“A healthy man wants a thousand things, a sick man only wants one.” Confucius

“Stay fit. You don’t want to get old and feel bad. You’ll also get a lot more accomplished and feel better about yourself if you stay fit. I didn’t make it to 91 by neglecting my health.” T Boone Pickens

"You get exactly one mind & body in this world & you can't start taking care of it when you're 50. By that time you'll have rusted out if you haven't done anything. You should really remember you've got just one mind & body to get through life with & do the most with it." Warren Buffett

Time is Money

Time is one of those rare finite resources. We only get so much of it, and regardless of how much money we have, we can’t buy more. So it becomes infinitely more valuable than any possession or trinket.

“If you asked me to trade away a very significant percentage of my net worth, either for some extra years in life, or being able to do, during those years, what I want to do, you know, I’d do it in a second.” Warren Buffett

“Many times over the years, I was fortunate enough to speak at student commencement ceremonies, and that gave me the chance to look out into a sea of the future and share some of these thoughts with young minds. My favourite of these speeches included my grandchildren in the audience. What I would tell them was this Depression-era baby from tiny Holdenville, Oklahoma — that wide expanse where the pavement ends, the West begins, and the Rock Island crosses the Frisco — lived a pretty good life. In those speeches, I’d always offer these future leaders a deal: I would trade them my wealth and success, my 68,000-acre ranch and private jet, in exchange for their seat in the audience. That way, I told them, I’d get the opportunity to start over, experience every opportunity America has to offer.” T. Boone Pickens

Last year, I was saddened by the loss of Jon Boorman, who died of cancer. I didn’t know Jon but I enjoyed his financial posts on twitter. He seemed to have his priorities right. He wrote this before he was diagnosed with cancer. He was a real stoic.

“When you’re young, you have so much time but never enough money. When you’re old you have money but never enough time. How you perceive and value time and money will change many times throughout your life, but at the end there’s only one you’ll want more of, would give anything for, but it won’t be available at any price. Cherish it while you can.” Jon Boorman

Pleasure

Many of the Investment Masters have chosen to give away their money while they are alive. Helping others gives pleasure and investors can direct the funds where they feel they’re most needed.

I enjoyed a recent Forbes article, ‘The Billionaire Who Wanted To Die Broke . . . Is Now Officially Broke’ which recounts the story of Chuck Feeney, the former billionaire co-founder of retail giant Duty Free Shoppers, who pioneered the ‘Giving While Living’ approach while donating over $8 billion to worthwhile causes.

“I see little reason to delay giving when so much good can be achieved through supporting worthwhile causes. Besides, it’s a lot more fun to give while you live than give while you're dead.” Chuck Feeney

Many of the Investment Masters have chosen a route similar to Chuck Feeney.

“You know, I get a lot of pleasure out of doing these things and if I didn’t do them and I died with more money, would I be a happier person? I don’t think so.” David Rubenstein

“Hopefully, we would live long enough to also see the consequences of our [charitable] actions; we would have to eat our own cooking, as it were. Previous generations that retired in old age and died soon after, have not always had that opportunity.” Nick Sleep

“Over the years, the emotional and psychological returns I have earned from charitable giving have been enormous. The more I do for others, the happier I am. The happiness and optimism I have obtained from helping others are a big part of what keeps me sane.. I get tremendous pleasure from helping others. It's what makes my life worth living.” Bill Ackman

“Philanthropy has had a huge role in my life. It’s brought me great joy. I give money away because I love the joy of watching lives change and being able to shape things. I don’t feel guilty about the money I made but I do think it’s strange that I’ve gotten the financial remuneration I have versus a doctor. If I can take that money and raise the the prospects for the American Dream in underserved neighbourhoods, provide scholarships or work on the environment it just brings great joy.” Stanley Druckenmiller

“When we make charitable gifts, we almost always feel richer, not poorer, for having been given the opportunity to help.” Seth Klarman

“We find the execution of our philanthropic work to be both challenging and deeply satisfying.” Jim Simons

“We think it is true that, once past X-amount, real meaning comes with reinvesting in society through charitable giving, which can also be a thoughtful, challenging, wonderful adventure, but with the added bonus that it feels like the world working properly.” Nick Sleep

A desire to donate through their lifetimes is the recognition that problems can sometimes compound faster than capital.

“Our current expectation is that within the constraints of the vagaries of fate, we will spend down most of our philanthropic assets in our lifetimes. One key observation is that society’s problems seem to be compounding as fast as or faster than wealth can compound, suggesting a greater urgency to current funding.” Seth Klarman

After Life

“I realised how rich I had become and I asked myself, ‘Do I really want to be the richest person in the cemetery?’” David Rubenstein

“There’s no Forbes 400, you know, in the graveyard.” Warren Buffett

Summary

The exponential pay-off unique to the investment industry can afford it’s most successful practitioners the capability to make a difference in the world. While every successful investor takes their own approach, there are lessons that can be drawn that relate to not just investing, but leading a more fulfilling life.

Investing is only a small piece of the pie.

Charlie Munger, with his 97 years of accumulated wisdom, teaches us in his characteristically shrewd way that a successful life requires stretching beyond investing.

“If all you succeed in doing in your life is to get early rich from passive holding of little bits of paper, and you get better and better at only that for all your life, it’s a failed life. Life is more than being shrewd at passive wealth accumulation.” Charlie Munger

“If you’re good at just investing your own money, I hope you’ll morph into doing something more.” Charlie Munger

Leon Cooperman encapsulated this nicely in his letter to the Giving pledge:

“I feel it is our moral imperative to give others the opportunity to pursue the American Dream by sharing our financial success. The case for philanthropy has been stated by others in a most articulate way and in words that have impressed me: In the early 1900's Andrew Carnegie said "He who dies rich, dies disgraced." In the 1930's, Sir Winston Churchill observed that "We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give." In 1961, President John F. Kennedy in his inaugural address stated "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country." Well before all these gentlemen expressed their thoughts, it was written in the Talmud that "A man's net worth is measured not by what he earns but rather what he gives away." Leon Cooperman

The idea of being able to answer the question of, ‘What’s enough?’ remains anathema to many. But not to these few altruistic investors who like Sleep and Zakaria, have determined their X-amount and chosen to pursue more meaningful lives beyond investing.


Sources/Further Reading:
‘X-Amount’ - The I.G.Y Foundation. Nick Sleep & Qais Zakaria. 2021.
‘The Giving Pledge - A Commitment to Philanthropy.’
‘The Billionaire Who Wanted To Die Broke . . . Is Now Officially Broke.’ Steven Bertoni, Forbes. 2020.
The Billionaire Who Wasn’t - How Chuck Feeney Made and Gave Away a Fortune Without Anyone Knowing,’ Conor O’Clery, 2007.


Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER

Learning from Disney's Bob Iger

All industries face evolution and the inevitable change that comes with it. Its virtually unavoidable, and never more so than in recent times - technological advancements, competitive landscapes and the demands of consumers change almost daily, and only those businesses and industries that can adapt will survive. Even fewer will come out the other side stronger than when they went in, and only manage to do so because they have clarity of vision and purpose.

Intel’s Andy Grove noted that at the turn of this century, the entertainment industry was ‘facing the valley of death’; customers & distribution channels were fragmenting, customer choice was exploding, barriers to entry were collapsing, technology was filling old moats and niches were opening for new players to exploit. And the Disney Corporation was no exception.

The man tasked with navigating this new industry landscape for Disney was Bob Iger. Mr. Iger had started in the television industry in 1974 and joined Disney through their 1996 acquisition of ABC/Capital Cities, where he was CEO. Disney named Iger the president and COO in 2000, making him Disney's number two executive under chairman and CEO, Michael Eisner. He was appointed CEO of the Disney Corporation in 2005.

“Bob Iger is a home run hitter. I mean he is really, really good. And he’s a great guy on top of that.” Warren Buffett

In an industry confronting a strategic inflection point, clear and strategic direction are imperative. In his wonderful book, ‘Only the Paranoid Survive’, a journey into fundamental industry change and strategic inflection points, Intel’s Andy Grove observed:

It is very hard to lead an organisation out of the valley of death without a clear and strategic direction’.

Luckily for Disney, by the time he was CEO, Iger had identified some simple strategic priorities that would address the entertainment industry’s rapidly evolving landscape. Three clear priorities would guide the Disney Corporation for the next few decades; a focus on high-quality branded content; embracing technology; and becoming truly global. Combined, they would remain the cornerstone of Disney’s decision-making process throughout Iger’s tenure.

Iger wasn’t afraid to embrace change. He recognised the company’s inimitable history and scale meant Disney could leverage and monetise other high quality brands like no other. Iger sought out the pinnacle of the world’s entertainment assets; acquiring Pixar in 2006 for $7.4 billion, Marvel Entertainment in 2009 for $4 billion, Lucasfilm in 2012 for $4.06 billion, and 21st Century Fox in 2019 for $71.3 billion.

In making such bold acquisitions, once again, Andy Grove’s advice is telling: ‘when dealing with emerging trends, you may very well have to go against rational extrapolation of data and rely instead on anecdotal observations and your instincts.’ Battling internal dissent, it was Iger’s instinct that ultimately prevailed to conclude these acquisitions. And each alone was a home run.

‘Of all the changes in the forces of competition, the most difficult one to deal with is when one of the forces becomes so strong that it transforms the very essence of how business is conducted in an industry.’ Andy Grove, Ex CEO, Intel

Recognising the technological inflection point transforming the industry, Iger implemented the courageous step of disrupting his core distribution business. Despite significant upfront costs, the negative impact on near term earnings and the resultant backlash from Wall Street, Iger looked towards a future where Disney connected directly to customers and by-passed the middlemen that had exerted significant control over the industry.

‘Most managements will do too little too late and fritter away the protection that the bubble of their existing business would otherwise have provided them with.’ Andy Grove

The legendary Bob Iger’s story is told in his recent book, ‘Ride of a Lifetime - Lessons in Creative Leadership.’

I’ve included some of my favourite extracts below.

Universal Ideas

‘My experiences from day one have all been in the media and entertainment world, but these strike me as universal ideas: about fostering risk taking and creativity; about building a culture of trust; about fueling a deep and abiding curiosity in oneself and inspiring that in the people around you; about embracing change rather than living in denial of it; and about operating, always, with integrity and honesty in the world, even when that means facing things that are difficult to face.’

Education and Smarts

‘I got mostly B’s and a few A’s in high school, but academics was never my passion.’

Optimism

One of the most important qualities of a good leader is optimism, a pragmatic enthusiasm for what can be achieved. Even in the face of difficult choices and less than ideal outcomes, an optimistic leader does not yield to pessimism. Simply put, people are not motivated or energised by pessimists.’

Optimism in a leader, especially in challenging times, is so vital. Pessimism leads to paranoia, which leads to defensiveness, which leads to risk aversion. Optimism sets a different machine in motion. Especially in difficult moments, the people you lead need to feel confident in your ability to focus on what matters, and not to operate from a place of defensiveness and self-preservation.’

People

‘There’s nothing more important than the quality and integrity of your people and your product. Everything depends on upholding that principle.’

Creativity

‘However you find the time, it’s vital to create space in each day to let your thoughts wander beyond your immediate job responsibilities, to turn things over in your mind in a less pressured, more creative way than is possible once the daily triage kicks in.’

Bad News / Unexpected

‘I tend to approach bad news as a problem that can be worked through and solved, something I have control over rather than something happening to me.’

‘I sometimes chide [my team] that they don’t report bad news fast enough to me.’

‘There are always crises and failures for which you can never be fully prepared.’

Moat / Competitive Advantage

We manufacture fun.’

‘Shanghai Disneyland cost about $6 billion to build. It is 963 acres, about eleven times the size of Disneyland. At various stages of its construction, as many as fourteen thousand workers lived on the property. [It took] eighteen years to complete the park.’

It is impossible to overstate the creative and technical brilliance of Disney’s Imagineers. They are artists, engineers, architects, and technologists, and they occupy a place and fulfill a role that is unmatched anywhere else in the world.’

‘Rupert Murdoch was clearly worried about the future of 21st Century Fox. ‘We don’t have scale,’ he said several times. ‘The only company that has scale is you.’ Rupert’s decision to sell was a direct response to the same forces that led us to create an entirely new strategy for our company. It’s hard to overstate how sweeping the disruption is in our industry, but his decision - to break up a company he’d built from almost nothing - was as good a marker as any of its inevitability.

Lollapalooza

‘[Michael Eisner] understood that ‘great’ is often a collection of very small things, and he helped me appreciate that even more deeply.’

Integrity

Nothing is more important than the quality and integrity of an organisation’s people and its product. A company’s success on setting high ethical standards for all things, big and small. Another way of saying this is: The way you do anything is the way you do everything.’

True integrity - a sense of knowing who you are and being guided by your own clear sense of right and wrong - is a kind of secret weapon.’

Strategy

‘A CEO must provide the company and its senior team with a road map… this kind of messaging is fairly simple: This is where we want to be. This is how we’re going to get there… I landed on three clear strategic priorities. They have guided the company since the moment I was named CEO:

1) We must devote most of our time and capital to the creation of high-quality branded content. In an age when more and more ‘content’ was being created and distributed, we needed to bet on the fact that quality will matter more and more. It wasn’t enough to create lots of content; and it wasn’t even enough to create lots of good content. With an explosion of choice, consumers needed an ability to make decisions about how to spend their time and money. Great brands would become even more powerful tools for guiding human behaviour.

2) We need to embrace technology to the fullest extent, first by using it to enable the creation of higher quality products, and then to reach more consumers in more modern, more relevant ways. From the earliest Disney years under Walt, technology was always viewed as a powerful storytelling tool; now it was time to double down on our commitment to doing the same.

3) We needed to become a truly global company. We were broad with our reach, doing business in numerous markets around the world, but we needed to better penetrate certain markets, particularly the world’s most populous countries, like China and India.’

Don’t be in the business of playing it safe. Be in the business of creating possibilities for greatness.’

Disney Corporation vs S&P500 - March 2005 to 2021 [Source: Bloomberg]

Disney Corporation vs S&P500 - March 2005 to 2021 [Source: Bloomberg]

Innovate / Adapt

‘This job requires an ability to constantly adapt and re-adapt.’

If you want innovation, you need to grant permission to fail.’

‘I’ve thought every day about how technology is redefining the way we create, deliver, and experience media, and what it means to be both relevant to a modern audience and faithful to a nearly hundred-year-old brand.’

The foundation for risk-taking is courage, and in ever-changing, disrupted businesses, risk-taking is essential, innovation is vital, and true innovation occurs only when people have courage. This is true of acquisitions, investments, and capital allocations, and it applies to creative decisions. Fear of failure destroys creativity.’

‘A deep and abiding curiosity enables the discovery of new people, places, and ideas, as well as an awareness and understanding of the marketplace and its changing dynamics. The path to innovation begins with curiosity.’

‘[Roone Arledge at ABC sports] changed the way we experience televised sport. He knew, first and foremost, that we were telling stories and not just broadcasting events, and to tell great stories, you need great talent .. Athletes were characters in unfolding narratives .. He wanted to try every new gadget and break every stale format. He was always looking, always, for new ways to connect to viewers and grab their attention. Roone taught me the dictum that has guided me in every job I’ve held since: Innovate or die, and there’s no innovation if you operate out of the fear of the new or untested.’

I didn’t want to be in the business of playing it safe. I wanted to be in the business of creating possibilities for greatness. Of all the lessons I learned in that first year running prime time, the need to be comfortable with failure was the most profound. Not with lack of effort but with the unavoidable truth that if you want innovation - and you should, always - you need to give permission to fail.’

‘In early 2001, every media and entertainment company was feeling the ground shifting beneath it’s feet, but no-one was sure which way to run. Technology was changing so fast, and the disruptive effects were becoming more obvious and anxiety-provoking… It was an interesting time, and marked what I saw as the beginning of the end of the traditional media as we knew it. Of great interest to me was that almost every traditional media company, while trying to figure out its place in the changing world, was operating out of fear rather than courage, stubbornly trying to build a bulwark to protect old models that couldn’t possibly survive the sea change that was under way.’

‘I’ve been in the business long enough to have heard every old argument in the book, and I’ve learned that old arguments are just that: old, and out of step with where the world is and where it should be.’

‘After the dust settled on the last of our ‘big three’ acquisitions, we begun to focus even more on the dramatic changes we were experiencing in our media business and the profound disruption we were feeling. The future of those businesses had begun to seriously worry us, and we concluded it was time for us to start delivering our content in new and modern ways, and to do so without intermediaries, on our own technology platform.’

Did we have the stomach to start cannibalising our own still-profitable business in order to begin building a new model? Could we disrupt ourselves, and would Wall Street tolerate the losses that we would inevitably incur as we tried to modernise and transform the company?

I know why companies fail to innovate. It’s tradition. Tradition generates so much friction, every step of the way. I talked about the investment community, which so often punishes established companies for reducing profits under any circumstances, which often leads businesses to play it safe and keep doing what they’ve been doing, rather than spend capital in order to generate long-term growth or adapt to change.’

Technological developments will eventually make older business models obsolete. You can either bemoan that and try with all your might to protect the status quo, or you can work hard to understand and embrace it with more enthusiasm and creativity than your competitors.’

Quality

‘If you’re in the business of making things, be in the business of making things great.’

‘[Roone’s] mantra was simple: ‘Do what you need to do to make it better’. Of all the things I learned from Roone, this is what shaped me the most. When I talk about this particular quality of leadership, I refer to it as ‘the relentless pursuit of perfection.’ It’s a mindset really, more than a set of rules. It’s not, at least as I have internalised it, about perfection at all costs. Instead, it’s about creating an environment in which you refuse to accept mediocrity.’

Culture

Strong leadership embodies the fair and decent treatment of people. Empathy is essential, as is accessibility. People committing honest mistakes deserve second chances, and judging people too harshly generates fear and anxiety, which discourage communication and innovation. Nothing is worse to an organisation than a culture of fear.’

A company’s culture is shaped by a lot of things, but this is one of the most important - you have to convey your priorities clearly and repeatedly. In my experience, it’s what separates great managers from the rest. If leaders don’t articulate their priorities clearly, then the people around them don’t know what their own priorities should be.’

‘‘Pixar needs to be Pixar’, I said [when acquiring the company]. ‘If we don’t protect the culture you’ve created, we’ll be destroying the thing that makes you valuable.’

‘If you trust your own instinct and treat people with respect, the company will come to represent the values you live by.’

Failure

‘I’ve never had too much fear about trying something and failing.’

Acquisitions

‘Disney had done due diligence about the assets [ABC Cities] they purchased, but there was no way they could understand all of the complexities of the company they were about to own.’

A little respect goes a long way, and the absence of it is often very costly. Over the next few years, as we made the major acquisitions that redefined and revitalised the company, this seemingly trite idea was as important as all of the data-crunching in the world; If you approach and engage people with respect and empathy, the seemingly impossible can become real.’

“You certainly can’t make a major acquisition without the necessary models to help you determine whether a deal is the right one, but you have to recognise that there is never 100 percent certainty. No matter how much data you’ve been given, it’s still, ultimately, a risk, and the decision to take the risk or not comes down to one person’s instinct.’

Disney acquisitions under Bob Iger

Disney acquisitions under Bob Iger

People sometimes shy away from taking big swings because they assess the odds and build a case against trying something before they even take the first step. One of the things I’ve always instinctively felt, is that long shots aren’t usually as long as they seem.’

‘.. a recurring theme in nearly every discussion I had about Pixar. I was told over and over it was too risky and ill-advisedIt’s true on paper the deal didn’t make obvious sense. But I felt certain that this level of ingenuity was worth more than any of us understood or could calculate at the time. As with everything, the key is awareness, taking it all in and weighing every factor. Nothing is a sure thing, but you need at the very least to be willing to take big risks. You can’t have big wins without them.’

The buyer often destroys the culture of the company it’s buying, and that destroy value. A lot of companies acquire others without much sensitivity regarding what they’re really buying. They think they’re getting physical assets or manufacturing assets or intellectual property (in some industries, that’s more true than in others). In most cases, what they’re really acquiring is people. In a creative business, that’s where the value is.’

‘The Pixar acquisition served our urgent need to revitalise Disney Animation, but it was also the first step in our larger growth strategy: to increase the amount of high-quality branded content we created.’

‘The acquisition of Marvel has proved to be much more successful than even our most optimistic models accounted for.’

‘Looking back on the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm, the thread that runs through all of them (other than that, taken together, they transformed Disney) is that each deal depended on building trust with a single controlling entity.’

Pricing Power

‘Michael’s [Eisner - ex CEO] biggest stroke of genius might have been his recognition that Disney was sitting on tremendously valuable assets that they hadn’t yet leveraged. One was the popularity of the parks. If they raised ticket prices even slightly, they would raise revenue significantly, without any noticeable impact on the number of visitors. Building new hotels at Walt Disney World was another untapped opportunity, and numerous hotels opened during Michael’s first decade as CEO… Then came the expansion of theme parks [Hollywood Studios & Euro Disney]. Even more promising was the trove of intellectual property - all those great classic Disney movies - just sitting there waiting to be monetised… It’s not an exaggeration to say that he taught me how to see in a way I hadn’t been able to before.’

Decentralised

‘[Tom Murphy & Dan Burke of Cap Cities/ABC] also believed in a decentralised corporate structure.. Other than a CFO and a general counsel, there was no corporate staff, no centralised bureaucracy, and very little interference with the business units.’

‘[Disney’s] centralised decision making had a demoralising effect on senior leaders of our businesses, who sensed that the power to run their divisions really resided at Strategic Planning… We had to start reconfiguring the apparatus and pushing strategic responsibility back to the businesses sooner rather than later… There were about sixty-five people in Strat Planning, and they’d taken over nearly all of the critical business decisions across the entire company. All of our senior business leaders knew that strategic decisions about the divisions they ran - Parks & Resorts, consumer products, Walt Disney Studios, and so on - weren’t actually theirs to make. Power was concentrated within this single entity at Burbank [and were] viewed more as an internal police force than our partner to our business… To my mind they were often too deliberate, pouring over every decision through their overly analytical sieve.. I wanted to drastically reduce the size of the group and begin streamlining our decision making by putting more of it in the hands of business leaders.’

Pain Today, Gain Tomorrow

‘It’s better to give up a release date and keep working to make a better movie, and we’ve always tried to put quality before everything else, even if it means taking a short-term hit to our bottom line.’

‘We were now fully committed to also becoming a distributor of our own content, straight to consumers, without intermediaries. In essence, we were now hastening the disruption of our own business, and the short term losses were going to be significant.’

The decision to disrupt businesses that are fundamentally working but whose future is in question - intentionally taking on short term losses in the hope of generating long-term growth - requires no small amount of courage. Routines and priorities get disrupted, jobs change, responsibility is reallocated. People can easily become unsettled as their traditional way of doing business begins to erode and a new model emerges.’

‘To often, we led from a place of fear rather than courage, stubbornly trying to build a bulwark to protect old models that can’t possibly survive the sea change that is under way. It is hard to look at your current models, sometimes even ones that are profitable in the moment, and make a decision to undermine them in order to face the change that’s coming.’

Worthwhile Markets

‘In one of our conversations about some initiative I was considering, Dan [Bourke] handed me a note that read: ‘Avoid getting into the business of manufacturing trombone oil. You may become the greatest trombone-oil manufacturer in the world, but in the end, the world only consumes a few quarts of trombone oil a year!’ He was telling me not to invest in projects that would sap the resources of my company and me and not give much back. It was such a positive way to impart that wisdom, though, and I still have that piece of paper in my desk, occasionally pulling it out when I talk to Disney executives about what projects to pursue and where to put their energy.’

Career Advice

Do the job you have well; be patient; look for opportunities to pitch in and expand and grow; and make yourself one of the people, through attitude and energy and focus, that your bosses feel they have to turn to when opportunity arises. Conversely, if you’re a boss, these are the people to nurture - not the ones who are clamouring for promotions and complaining about not being utilised enough but the ones who are proving themselves to be indispensable day in and day out.’

Surround yourself with people who are good in addition to being good at what they do.’

Take responsibility when you screw up. In work, in life, you’ll be more respected and trusted by people around you if you own up to your mistakes. It’s impossible to avoid them; but it is possible to acknowledge them, learn from them, and set an example that it’s okay to get things wrong sometimes.’

Humility

‘I can’t emphasise how much success is also dependent on luck, and I’ve been extraordinarily lucky along the way.’

‘To hold onto that awareness of yourself even as the world tells you how powerful and important you are. The moment you start to believe it all too much, the moment you look yourself in the mirror and see a title emblazoned on your forehead, you’ve lost your way.’

Summary

While Bob Iger stepped down from running the Disney Corporation last year, the business’ recent record share price is testament to the courage, creativity and resolve he showed in transforming this great company. For even the great Disney Corporation, with its cast of irreplaceable characters, wasn’t immune to the winds of change.

Iger fortified the business with the acquisition of Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and 21st Century Fox which together provided an unprecedented stable of the world’s best entertainment product. In a bold move that was sure to hurt near term earnings, Iger developed the capability to deliver that content directly to consumers through the new Disney+, ensuring Disney controlled its destiny and longevity of success.

I hope you’ve recognised many of the characteristics common to the other great businesses we’ve studied; innovation and embracing change, tolerating mistakes, decentralisation, focus on quality, accepting pain today for gain tomorrow. Many of these are found in Tom Peter’s seminal classic, ‘In Search of Excellence,’ a book itself replete with Disney anecdotes of 40 years ago.

“A special attribute of the success-orientated, positive, and innovating environment is a substantial tolerance for failure.” Tom Peters

Every business book has its lessons, in Bob Iger’s case there’s a myriad of business, investing and life lessons. Collating the ideas into mental models to apply to investments can help identify potential opportunities and pitfalls. One mental model I particularly enjoyed was the ‘Trombone Oil Market.’ It’s a reminder to do things that are worthwhile, not to chase markets that are too small. As Linkedin’s founder Reed Hoffman noted, “If it’s the left-handed scissors market, it’s too narrow.” When it comes to investing we can seek out the same.

I’ll let Bob himself have the final say:

‘If you’re in the business of making things, be in the business of making things great.’

Source:
The Ride of a Lifetime - Bob Iger. Penguin Random House. 2019.

Further Reading:
Creativity - Learning from Pixar’ - Investment Masters Class. 2017.



Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER




Founders & Management Alignment

Screen Shot 2021-01-01 at 7.17.31 am.png

If you’ve ever founded your own business, you’ll know how important they become to you. For many business owners, their companies become like one of their own children; they nurture and guide them and then watch them grow, and feel every triumph and failure far more keenly than others who are not as emotionally invested within the business might. Some few decide to sell their businesses after a while, yet many others choose to stay with them, remaining with their ‘child’ over time to see it grow to maturity.

I’m sure you’ve heard the saying, ‘no one works as hard as the owner’, and this is largely true. No one does. Where other managers and employees might come and go over time, it’s the founder who is there, quite often seven days a week, plugging away at their enterprise, steering and guiding and leading it towards success. And its this commitment to the cause that often leads to remarkable levels of performance.

We’ve covered a lot of different successful businesses in the Investment Masters Class over the last few years: Aldi, Home Depot, Walmart, Copart, Charles Schwab and McDonald’s to name but a few. And interestingly, one of the most striking features of these businesses has been the fact that ninety percent of them have been run by Founders.

You may have also noticed yourself that many of the investors considered ‘Masters’ have quite literally filled their portfolios with companies run by either founders, families or major shareholders who act like such; Berkshire, Nomad, Giverny, Baillie Gifford, Marathon and Gardner Russo are some that come to mind.

“Nomad’s investments may be in publicly listed firms but these firms are also overwhelmingly run by proprietors who think and behave as if they ran private firms.” Nick Sleep

Sixty-plus percent of my investments at the moment and most of the past decades have been invested in family-controlled companies, which is quite unusual, and it has given us a slightly interesting benefit that to most investors, family-controlled companies suggest more risk, not less risk.” Thomas Russo

Almost ninety percent of the portfolio is invested in firms run by founders or the largest shareholder, and their average investment in the firms is just over twenty percent of shares outstanding.” Nick Sleep

“The attractions of [founding] shareholder structures explain why companies that enjoy them form nearly 60 per cent of the International Alpha portfolio.” Baillie Gifford

And the reason for this is quite simple. Over time, businesses with aligned management have tended to produce some of the best stock market returns. There’s a myriad of explanations for this. Let’s delve a little deeper.

Outperformance

Numerous studies have shown that companies with a long term founder at the helm have outperformed. A 2012 study by the Harvard Business Review titled, ‘What You Can Learn from Family Business’ highlighted, ‘when we looked across business cycles from 1997 to 2009, we found that the average long-term financial performance was higher for family businesses than for non-family businesses in every country we examined.’

Studies such as the one from the Harvard Business Review conclude that founder-led businesses often outperform professionally managed firms. I would suggest that they do so because the founder's commitment runs far deeper and is often longer-term in nature than that of the professional manager. And commitment and focus is what drives performance." Ron Shaich, Founder, Panera Bread.

The Credit Suisse Research Institute have made similar findings. Using its proprietary ‘Family 1000’ database of more than 1000 publicly listed family or founder-owned companies, Credit Suisse has identified that since 2006, the overall universe of ‘Family-owned businesses’ have outperformed non-family-owned companies by an annual average of 370 basis points.

Research by Baillie Gifford concurs, “Our own research suggested that businesses where a family or founder owned more than 10 per cent outperformed by 3.4 per cent per annum over a fifteen-year period.”

Screen Shot 2020-12-25 at 12.03.01 pm.png

Trust

Money managers effectively pass stewardship of their client’s capital to the management of the companies they invest in. And as it’s never possible to know everything going on inside a company, it’s paramount they trust management. A useful method to help ascertain management integrity is to study the course of a company’s history - reading every company announcement over the last five plus years until today - soon gives you an understanding of management’s achievements versus their goals. You’ll also get a sense of director behaviour through their buying and selling activity.

“When you choose to invest with us on behalf of your clients, you’re subcontracting their capital to us to look after. The reality of this process is we subcontract it to the management of companies. Therefore, seeing they think what we regard as sensible about things is a very important sign.” Terry Smith

“Our job is to pass custody of your investment over at the right price and to the right people.” Nick Sleep

“In effect, we subcontract our portfolio to the boards and managers of the companies in which we invest.” Andy Brown

If you don’t trust management, then don’t invest.

“If there is a serious question of the lack of a strong management sense of trusteeship for stockholders, the investor should never seriously consider participating in such an enterprise.” Phil Fisher

"We do not wish to join with managers who lack admirable qualities, no matter how attractive the prospects of their business." Warren Buffett

Incentives

In his 97 years, Charlie Munger has studied incentive-driven behaviour more than most. Yet, even he still feels he under-estimates it.

“I think I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it.” Charlie Munger

A company founder’s incentives are usually in stark contrast to those of a professional management team. A large ownership stake in the business means a founder’s wealth is far more influenced by longer term valuation improvements than a salary. In contrast, a CEO with little skin-in-the-game may be tempted to undertake accretive short term acquisitions or minimise capex & investments to achieve short term remuneration hurdles, even to the detriment of long term value creation.

"A CEO faced with 4 years at the helm with financial incentives is unlikely to act in the same way as an owner-manager with a multi-generational timescale." Marathon Asset Management

"All else being equal, favour companies in which management has a significant personal investment over companies run by people that benefit only from their salaries." Peter Lynch

"If the CEO owns $1 million worth of stock and gets paid $10 million per year, it’s pretty clear he’ll value his job more than the value of the stock. If he’s paid $1 million per year and owns $50 million in stock, we think that’s predictive of his making better long-term decisions for the company... Where the founder owns 20-30% of the business... they’ll work with Wall Street because they don’t completely control the company, but at the same time they can take a longer-term perspective. CEOs with tons of options rather than actual shares can be prone to adopt Wall Street’s short-term focus, which can cause value to be eroded more quickly than you’d think as one bad decision piles on top of another." Adam Weiss

Many corporate CEOs have very low levels of genuine ownership in the firms they manage and are incentivised primarily on short-term earnings-per-share targets or share price movements. These sorts of incentive schemes do not engender long-term thinking.” Baillie Gifford

"A guy who rises to the top of a big corporation and owns none of it is much more interested in control than he is in economics. It is just the nature of humanity. A guy who owns his business is used to control. He never has to fight for control. What he has to fight for is economics. But a bunch of entrepreneurs find it much easier to collaborate and create economic value. They have something beyond control—they have economics.” John Malone

Principal-Agency Problem

The incentive misalignment is often referred to as the principal/agency problem; what’s in the best interest of the CEO may be detrimental to the shareholders. The presence of a founder can resolve this dilemma.

As ownership increases agency costs fall. And like any cost, a sustained fall increases profitability and the value of firm. This effect is born out in our experience and numerous academic studies, dating as far back as the late 1980’s. This relationship between inside ownership and outcomes is not only positive but potentially meaningful. For example, Christoph Kaserer and Benjamin Moldenhauer correlated a 1 per cent increase in inside ownership with ~10 basis points per annum increase in share price performance.” Baillie Gifford

Insider ownership has always seemed to us as the most direct way to deal with the principal-agent problem, which arises with the separation of corporate management from ownership. Our portfolios have tended to be skewed towards companies where successful entrepreneurs run their companies and retain sizeable shareholdings.” Marathon Asset Management

“The issue of alignment of interests is one of the great challenges of modern-day capitalism. Strong governance structures, well-devised remuneration schemes and large management shareholdings can help, but one of the best ways to overcome this challenge is simply to invest alongside the founders of a business or their descendants. When founders move on, substantial equity ownership by their descendants can still have significant beneficial effects." Baillie Gifford

Passion versus Pay

The most profitable businesses tend to be those focused on delivering a customer outcome, not the most profit-orientated. Founders often bring a passion to the business absent from that of professional managers. They are building a legacy, which requires long term thinking. Buffett himself is a good example; Berkshire pays him a salary of $100,000 a year; he resides in the same house he bought in 1958. Berkshire is his canvas. In the insightful book, Obliquity, John Kay observed, “Many of the businesspeople who talk obsessively about profit are ultimately less successful in creating profit than those who profess love for their business.

“The best entrepreneurs we know don’t particularly care about the terms of their compensation packages, and some, such as Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett have substantially and permanently waived their salaries, bonuses, or option packages. We would surmise that the founders of the firms Nomad has invested in are not particularly motivated by the incremental dollar of personal wealth… These people derive meaning from the challenge, identity, creativity, ethos (this list is not exhaustive) of their work, and not from the incentive packages their compensation committees have devised for them. The point is that financial incentives may be necessary, but they may also not be sufficient in themselves to bring out the best in people.” Nick Sleep

“One thing that Sam Walton and Mrs. B had in common is they had a passion for the business. It isn’t all about the money, at all. It was about winning. Passion counts enormously; you have to really be doing it because you love the results, rather than the money. When we buy businesses, we are looking for people that will not lose an ounce of passion for the business even after their business is sold.” Warren Buffett

“I always look to invest in a manager who has made the company his or her life’s work.” Robert Vinall

“A majority of our managers are financially independent, so that they don’t go to work because they are worried about putting kids through school or putting food on the table. So they have to have some reason to go to work aside from that.” Warren Buffett

“What matters most: passion or competence that was inborn. Berkshire is full of people who have a peculiar passion for their business. I would argue passion is more important than brain power.” Charlie Munger

“We’ve had terrific luck with the entrepreneurs who basically love their businesses the way I love Berkshire.” Warren Buffett

“I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about factors that influence the long-term success of a business, and I think firms (public or private) that are run by the founders often have a huge intangible quality to them - one that is crucial to the firm’s ultimate success. This intangible quality is that the founder is often motivated by much more than money. And that is a driving force that can be incredibly powerful, and incredibly valuable for the owners of those firms.” John Huber

Tone from the Top & Culture

This aspect is really quite simple, yet despite its simplicity, its often underestimated or even overlooked altogether. And it is vastly important to the success of any organisation. Higher management set the tone for any organisation. What this means is that when you think of a company’s culture, in its simplest form it is actually derived from the values and behaviour(s) of either the founder/owner or the combined personality of the management team.

And those behaviours of passion and commitment and love for the business are always going to be far more evident in a company that is run by a Founder, than that run by a professional manager or team.

A company’s behaviour is an analog of its leadership’s behaviour, much as a marionette’s behaviour is an analog of the puppeteer’s hand motions.” Rajenda Sisodia

“Costco’s founder, Jim Sinegal owned a lot of shares but never made more than $300k a year. How different is that from other company's where the CEO is making $20, $30, $40m or gets fired and gets a $200m golden parachute? That doesn't usually bode well for the long term cultural success of the firm." Paul Black

“We’ve bought business after business because we admire the founders and what they’ve done with their lives. In almost all cases, they’ve stayed on, and our expectations have not been disappointed.” Charlie Munger

Lower Capital Requirements

Investors often give little consideration to the capital required to grow a business. One of the attractions of businesses owned by founders, or in an industry where a founder-led business thrives after decades, is the ability for a company to self-fund growth without calling upon external capital.

“We are the Groucho Marx of investment. Groucho Marx once said he would never join a club that would have him as a member. We would never invest in a company that needs our money. All the companies we invest in are quoted but the companies are not quoted on the stock market because they need our money. Why are they quoted? They are typically quoted because they were once family-owned, and when family’s become dispersed a realization has to happen. When we are looking at a sector and we are thinking of investing in it, we look for a big private company in that sector, that’s been around for many decades, if not longer and has never had to float. Which means we know in that sector companies can grow and prosper and create value without ever ringing up the shareholders and asking for more money. We can’t buy those companies but they give us comfort we are fishing in the right area.” Terry Smith

"We usually tend to be in bed with managements who don't really need the capital markets." Marty Whitman

Long Term Focus / Jam Tomorrow

All the way back in 1958, Phil Fisher understood the benefits of investing in businesses taking a long-term view.

“The investor wanting maximum results should favour companies with a truly long-range outlook concerning profits.” Phil Fisher

‘The Hunt for Europe’s Ten-Baggers’, Baillie Gifford 2019.

‘The Hunt for Europe’s Ten-Baggers’, Baillie Gifford 2019.

Often business decisions that promise long-term value, come at the cost of short-term performance. It might be investing in an overseas expansion which is dilutive to near term earnings, keeping margins low to deter competitors, increasing advertising spend to maximise long-term customer value or increasing R&D spending which has potential long-term benefits.

“Almost all good businesses engage in ‘pain today, gain tomorrow’ activities.” Charlie Munger

Professional CEO’s are often reluctant to disappoint Wall Street expectations over concerns of long-term job stability, short-term earnings implications and concern for short term stock price performance.

“If you owned a business all by yourself, you wouldn’t care at all about maximising reported numbers.”  Tom Russo

“Our favourite and most frequent acquisitions are the businesses that we buy from founders. When a founder invests the better part of a lifetime building a business, a long-term orientation tends to permeate all aspects of the enterprise: employee selection and development, establishing and building symbiotic customer relationships, and evolving sophisticated product suites.” Mark Leonard

“At best, family control can be an elegant solution to the agency problem. Families are better able to withstand short-term profit fluctuations and to invest for the long term benefit of themselves and outside shareholders.” Marathon Asset Management

“Often family controlled companies have the ability to look out beyond quarters and that's valuable.” Thomas Russo

“Our experience suggests founder-led companies show greater propensity to focus on long-term value creation, even when it comes at the expense of short-term pain.” Baillie Gifford

Family owners typically want their firms to last for generations, so they can make long-term investments without worrying about shareholders looking for short term-profits.” Vicki Tenhaken

A founder is less likely to be seduced by the demands of Wall Street.

“I admire Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos. He has revolutionized the retail industry and has two great qualities: He is patient and persistent, and he doesn’t care to please Wall Street’s quarterly expectations. This last quality is often overlooked but it is seldom found and represents, in my opinion, a true competitive advantage.” Francois Rochon

Summary

Warren Buffett has long espoused the more attractive opportunities in the equities market than the private market. Notwithstanding, he has continued to seek out founder-led businesses for acquisition. In fact, if he had his way, he’d own more.

‘In the stock market, you get a chance to buy businesses at foolish prices, and that is why we end up with a lot of money in marketable securities. If we absolutely had our choice, we would own three times the number of businesses we own outright.’ Warren Buffett

Many of the world’s best investors have applied the benefits of his approach to public equities investing.

“An owner-operator culture is the central idea expressed in our portfolio. Boiled down to our essential raison d'être, that’s it. We invest with talented people who have skin the game. In other words, we invest in businesses where management and/or the board own a significant amount of stock.” Chris Mayer

Founders, at least the very best of them, are unstoppable, irrepressible forces of nature.” Mike Moritz

“I follow the philosophy, have your money where the owners are.” Mario Gabelli

“We look for managers who are owners.” Chuck Akre

"I invest almost exclusively in companies with active and engaged owners. Very occasionally, you find managers who think and act like owners even if no owner is present but this is the exception rather than the rule. If a restaurant has an absentee owner, over time the service quality will slip and the waiters will have their hand in the till. With large companies, it is no different.” Robert Vinall

"We love owner-operators.” Mason Hawkins

“Ideally, we want a founder. We want a founder or a founder-like leader that’s running the business, and running it like an owner.” Christopher Begg

"We want to invest with management teams 'that think and act like owners.’" David Herro

“If we recognise that portfolio performance is usually driven by a relatively small number of long-term winners, and that these winners most often are run by passionate managers, often founders or a second-generation with a deep-rooted interest in the success of their offspring, we must then redouble our efforts to find more of this type of company.” David Poppe

"I want to invest with people who have at-risk skin in the game, ideally founder capital. I like knowing that I and the person calling the shots are in parity in terms of risk." Frank Martin

“I try to stuff our portfolio with management teams that ‘get it’. Founders run 45% of our companies; the average tenure of management is fifteen years.” Ryan Krafft

One of my favourite quotes from Charlie Munger is ‘Fish where the fish are.’ The starting point is finding the right pond. And ultimately, this is profound advice. It’s clear that a great starting place in your search for great investments might be the pond of companies run by Founders.


Sources:
The Hunt For Europe’s Ten Baggers’, Baillie Gifford. 2019
Owner Operators’, Horizon Kinetics, 2014.
What You Can Learn from Family Business,’ Kachaner, Stalk, Bloch. Harvard Business Review. 2012.
Family-owned businesses show resilience through pandemic,’ Credit Suisse Research. 2020.
Founder-Led Companies Outperform the Rest — Here’s Why,’ Chris Zook, Harvard Business Review, 2016.
Business In The Blood - Companies controlled by Founding Families remain surprisingly important and look set to stay so.’ The Economist, 2014.


Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER


Learning from Nick Sleep

True investment success is rare, and even more so is the prospect of long term success; an investor’s returns that outperform the index year on year. Rarer still is the prospect of gaining insights into how the most successful in the investing world have achieved that success. And let’s be honest; we’re all looking for information that will give us an edge; those pearls of wisdom that allow us to intimately understand the thoughts and mental models of the great investors. But this information is sometimes so hard to find, it’s almost like searching for the Dead Sea Scrolls - We know it exists but we’re not quite sure where to look.

If the Dead Sea Scrolls had an investing equivalent, Nick Sleep’s letters would be it. For a long time these letters have been as rare as hen’s teeth, and because of this, and the gems contained within, they have been coveted by investors the world over. Only in the last few months have they surfaced publicly. Having spent the better part of the last few decades studying the world’s best investors, businesses and CEO’s, I’ve read hundreds of letters, interviews and books. And what I have found is that Mr Sleep’s remarkable insights and creativity in investing are almost without peer.

In 2001, after a decade in the industry, Sleep and his partner Qais Zakaria launched the Nomad Investment Partnership under the tutelage of Jeremy Hosking at Marathon Asset Management. The fund was spun out in 2006. After trouncing the index for thirteen years [20.8%pa vs index 6.5%pa], Nomad was closed in 2014 as Sleep & Zakaria sought more ‘caring pursuits’.

Like many of the world’s great investors, Nick Sleep came to investing from unorthodox beginnings. He didn’t study business or finance, but geography, a multi-disciplinary subject that nurtured a love of asking questions.

“Geography is a subject with an identity crisis – it is the confluence of geology, physics, chemistry, oceanography, climatology, biology and that is just physical geography. Human geography deals with sociology, psychology, statistics, economics – so it is the ultimate polymath course. Geography just reached in to other subjects and grabbed what it thought it had to have. Indeed, the reason I studied Geography at all was because of this polymathic quality.”

“But because Geography is so broad, it claims little territory of its own.. Because Geography is seen as an academic gate-crasher, practitioners have had to ask themselves questions that other more homogenous subjects such as physics or chemistry have not.”

And it was Geography combined with Robert Pirsig’s seminal book, one occasionally referenced by the great investors, that reshaped his perspective on the world.

“I was reading ‘Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance’ by Robert Pirsig at the time, and the two just combined to change how I viewed the world. So I have this tendency to return to the basic questions.”

Mirroring the journey of many of the Investment Masters, Nick Sleep evolved as an investor. In Nomad’s early years the fund had almost half its assets in typical ‘value’ plays - discounted asset based businesses and deep value workouts - the ‘cigar butts’ that characterise Benjamin Graham’s investing style. Notwithstanding, Sleep could see that Nomad’s destination was in owning ‘honestly run compounding machines’. Nomad’s 2004 letter set out ‘the likely evolution of Partnership Investments’ which he referred to as the ‘terminal portfolio’ - where he wanted to go. By the time the partnership wound down the fund was characterised by a portfolio of these compounding machines; businesses deploying ‘scale-economic-shared’ models largely run by their founders.

Charlie Munger has often said ‘take a simple idea and take it seriously’. Sleep embraced this philosophy, grasping the market’s perennial undervaluation of ‘scale-economics-shared’ businesses. He formulated creative investment theses that he fortified through the mental models he collected from disparate disciplines; many not ordinarily applied to investing. When combined with a deep understanding of psychology, the application of relentless patience and a steadfast focus on each company’s destination, Nomad achieved an astonishing track record of performance.

There are so many lessons to draw from this incredible collection of investment letters it’s almost difficult to know where to begin. Sleep’s prescient views on Amazon are laid out in a roadmap in the early letters. A contrarian view on Costco from Nomad’s formative years is now conventional wisdom. I’ve included some of my favourite learnings below.

Think Long Term

We own the only permanent capital in a company’s capital structure – everything else in the company, management, assets, board, employees can change but our equity can still be there! Institutional investors have never really reconciled their ability to trade daily with the permanence of equity.

“There is a lot to be said for gentle contemplation. And of course, a long investment holding period allows one time between decisions to ‘retreat and simmer a little.”

“We are genuinely investing for the long term (few are!), in modestly valued firms run by management teams who may be making decisions, the fruit of which may not be apparent for several years to come.”

Focus on the Destination

“Destination analysis is consciously central to how we analyse businesses these days. It helps us ask better questions and get to a firm’s DNA.”

"The only real, long term risk, is the risk of mis-analysing a company's destination."

Compounding Machines

“We can do better with the compounding businesses these days- and they are much less stressful.”

“If we had out time again, we would hope not to be seduced by some firms (apparent) economic cheapness but weigh more heavily their DNA, if you like. One of the things we have learnt over the last few years is our most profitable insights have come from recognising the deep reality of some businesses, not from being more contrarian than everyone else. Old habits die hard but, even so, I am finally attending classes at CBA, Cigar Butts Anonymous!”

Screen Shot 2020-12-22 at 3.36.26 pm.png
Screen Shot 2020-12-22 at 3.36.47 pm.png

“We estimate that around three quarters of the portfolio is invested in growth businesses, which have the potential to compound for many years, and the balance in more cigar butt like investments (we just could not help it!).”

“Investors know that in time average companies fail, and so stocks are discounted for that risk. However this discount is applied to all stocks even those that, in the end, do not fail. The shares of great companies can therefore be cheap, in some cases, for decades.”

Ignore the Noise

“At its heart, investing is simple, and to make it seem anything but, with the frequent repartition of short-lived facts and data points, may be a conceit. Indeed, it could be argued that a running commentary obfuscates a discussion of the things that really matter.”

“Information, like food, has a sell by date - after all, next quarter's earnings are worthless after next quarter. And it is for this reason the information Zak and I weigh most heavily in thinking about a firm is that which has the longest shelf life, with the highest weighting going to information that is almost axiomatic: it is, in our opinion, the most valuable information.”

“The investment industry, as well as many economic commentators, spend so much time shouting. So much commentary espouses certainty on a multitude of issues, and so little of what is said is, at least in our opinion, knowable. The absolute certainty in the voice of the proponent so often seeks to mask the weakness of the argument. If I spot this, I metaphorically tune out. In our opinion, just a few big things in life are knowable. And it is because just a few things are knowable that Nomad has just a few investments.”

Psychological Advantages

“Charlie Munger’s ‘Psychology of Human Misjudgment’ speech given at the Harvard Law School in the mid 1990’s is the finest investment speech ever given. Not that he talked directly about investments. And that tells you something. But the most enduring advantages are psychological. And the trick here is to first understand them. And then train yourself out of them!”

Focus on the Business

“We own shares for multi-year periods and so our continued investment success has far more to do with the economics of the underlying businesses than it has to do with their last share price quote.”

"The trick, it seems to us, if one is to be a successful long-term investor, is to recognise the sources of enduring business success, get in early and own enough to make a difference."

“We can all observe that stock prices, set in an auction market, are more volatile than business values. Several studies and casual observation reveal that individual prices oscillate widely around a central price year in year out, and for no apparent reason. Certainly, business values don’t do this. Over time, this offers the prospect that any business, indeed all businesses, will be meaningfully mis-priced.”

Customer Relationships

“[Nomad’s firms’] cultures are focused on the customer experience, not on the competition or the profit and loss statement. Our firms tend to chase the vision, not the money.”

"To be precise, the wealth you receive as partners came from the relationship our companies' employees (using the company as a conduit) have with their customers. It is this relationship that is the source of aggregate wealth created in capitalism."

“One trick that Zak and I use when sieving the data that passes over our desks is to ask the question: does any of this make a meaningful difference to the relationship our businesses have with their customers? This bond (or not!) between customers and companies is one of the most important factors in determining long-term business success. Recognising this can be very helpful to the long-term investor.”

Business Models

“Zak and I observe several business models that work in the long run, and scale economics shared is one of these... that is why companies that share scale with the customer make up around sixty percent of the portfolio.”

“The basic business models that lead to success don’t change that much and there aren’t that many of them.”

“We have little more than a handful of distinct investment models, which overlap to some extent.”

Management

“Our job is to pass custody of your investment over at the right price and to the right people.”

Founders & Management

“Almost ninety percent of the portfolio is invested in firms run by founders or the largest shareholder, and their average investment in the firms they run is just over twenty percent of the shares outstanding.”

“The best entrepreneurs we know don’t particularly care about the terms of their compensation packages, and some, such as Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett have substantially and permanently waived their salaries, bonuses, or option packages. We would surmise that the founders of the firms Nomad has invested in are not particularly motivated by the incremental dollar of personal wealth… These people derive meaning from the challenge, identity, creativity, ethos (this list is not exhaustive) of their work, and not from the incentive packages their compensation committees have devised for them. The point is that financial incentives may be necessary, but they may also not be sufficient in themselves to bring out the best in people.”

“Nomad’s investments may be in publicly listed firms but these firms are also overwhelmingly run by proprietors who think and behave as if they ran private firms.”

Scale Economics Shared

“Nomad’s firms are, on average, so cost advantaged compared to many of their competitors that the worse it gets for the economy, the better it gets for our firms from a competitive position.”

“The simple deep reality for many of our firms is the virtuous spiral established when companies keep costs down, margins low and in doing so share their growing scale with their customers. In the long run this will be more important in determining the destination for our firms that the distractions of the day.”

“Scale Economics Shared operations are quite different. As the firm grows in size, scale savings are given back to the customer in the form of lower prices. The customer then reciprocates by purchasing more goods., which provides greater scale for the retailer who passes on the new savings as well. Yippee. This is why firms such as Costco enjoy sales per foot of retailing space four times greater than run-of-the-mill supermarkets. ‘Scale economics shared’ incentivises customer reciprocation, and customer reciprocation is a super-factor in business performance.”

"In the office we have a white board on which we have listed the (very few) investment models that work & we can understand. Costco is the best example we can find of one of them: scale efficiencies shared. Most companies pursue scale efficiencies, but few share them."

Price Give-Back

“We would suggest that investment in price-giveback, so favoured by Nomad's firms, is the most long-lived of the investment spending items if it engenders consumer habit. It may, therefore, be the most valuable to long-term investors.”

Risks of Pricing Power

“Early in a firm’s development it makes sense to reward customers disproportionately as customer referrals and repeat business are so essential to the development of a valuable franchise. With maturity this bias can be reduced and shareholders can reasonably take a greater slice of the pie. Too much, however, and the moat is drained with negative consequences for longevity. The temptations are enormous because capital markets will reward profiteering. There are many examples of companies which ‘harvest’ excessively, when perhaps they should focus on longevity. This may have been what happened at Coca Cola which has leant excessively on bottlers, or Gillette where advertising has been cut, or even at Home Depot which has boosted gross margin in recent years. Shareholders often suffer a double whammy as highly rated companies enter ‘growth purgatory’, because growth slows just at the time when shareholders spot the mis-analysis of reported profitability.”

Risk with High Margins

"The risk with super-normal profitability is that profits are an incentive for a new competitor, far better to earn less, but for a much longer time.”

Lollapalooza Moat

“There is not a prior reason why a comparative advantage should be one big thing, any more than many smaller things. Indeed an interlocking, self-reinforcing network of small actions may be more successful than one big thing… Firms that have a process to do many things a little better than their rivals may be less risky than firms that do one thing right [e.g. develop/own a patent] because their future success is more predictable. They are simply harder to beat. And if they’re harder to beat then they may be very valuable businesses indeed.”

Misunderstood

“[We] invest in firms that are misunderstood by many. For example, we invest in firms that pay their employees 80% more than rival companies (Costco); firms that lower prices as an article of faith (Amazon.com); firms that force an equitable distribution of commissions in an industry dominated by an eat-what-you-kill culture (Michael Page); a low cost airline for the masses in a region served by airlines for the rich (Air Asia); and a company that thinks table top figurine games are cool, really, (Games Workshop). Isn’t it wonderful that these firms are behaving in this way despite being misunderstood by the outside world? All the social pressure will be to conform with industry norm but these companies have a deep keel that keeps them upright.”

Recognising & Weighing the Right Information

“What investors needed to understand, and attribute sufficient weight to, in order to hold Colgate-Palmolive shares for the last thirty years, and so enjoy the fifty-fold uplift in share price, was the economics of incremental products (often referred to as “line extensions”, from the first “Winterfresh” blue minty gel in 1981 to “Total Advanced Whitening” today) and the psychology of advertising. Other items were important too, discipline in capital spending in particular, and there were lots of other things that seemed important along the way (stock market crises, country crises, management crises and so on) but it was the success and economics of line extensions and advertising that, in our opinion, was what the long-term investor really needed to embrace. A similar story can be told at Nike and Coca-Cola (manufacturing savings funneled into dominant advertising) or Wal-Mart and Costco (scale savings shared with the customer). Recognising and correctly weighing this information in-spite of the latest news flow is a matter of discipline, and it is that discipline that is so richly rewarded in the end.”

Inaction - SOYA

“One common psychological trap that agents may fall into is that clients expect action, or to be more accurate, fund managers expect their clients to expect action! The investor Seth Klarman was once challenged on whether Buffett’s track record was statistically significant as he traded so little? To which Klarman answered that each day Buffett chose not to do anything was a decision, too. It is quite possible that we may not change the companies we have invested very much over the next few years.”

“There are, broadly two ways to behave as an investor. First buy something cheap in anticipation of a price rise, sell at a profit, and repeat. Almost everybody does this to some extent. And for some fund managers it requires, depending on the number of shares in a portfolio and the time they are held, perhaps many hundred decisions a year. Alternatively, the second way to invest is to buy shares in great businesses at a reasonable price and let the business grow. This appears to require just one decision (to buy the shares) but, in reality, it requires daily decisions not to sell the shares as well! Almost no one does this, in part because it requires patience.”

“The decision not to do something is still an active decision; it is just that the accountants don’t capture it. We have broadly, the businesses we want in Nomad and see little advantage to fiddling.”

“The runway ahead for our businesses may be very long indeed. Inaction on our part is counter-cultural and deliberate, and is easier said than done. Really… As Berkshire Hathaway Vice-Chairman, Charlie Munger says, you make your real money sitting on your assets!”

“Our portfolio inaction continues and we are delighted to report that purchase and sale transactions have all but ground to a halt. Our expectation is that this is a considerable source of value add!”

The Real Mistakes

“The biggest error an investor can make is the sale of a Walmart or a Microsoft in the early stages of the company’s growth. Mathematically, this error is far greater than the equivalent sum invested in a firm that goes bankrupt. The industry tends to gloss over this fact, perhaps because opportunity costs go unrecorded in performance records.”

The Value in Mistakes

"In investment terms, once lessons have been learnt, mistakes can be put on a price earnings ratio of one and the resultant, good behaviour on a ratio of more than one. In other words, mistakes become net present value positive."

Position Sizing

“It is common-place for overall portfolio construction to be as a result of stock weighting built up from one to two to three percent of a portfolio and so on up to a target holding. This means that weightings are anchored at a small number with only outliers reaching double digits. There is another way to construct a portfolio, which is to invert and start at a hundred percent and work down! If fund managers did this, I am sure they would end up with completely different portfolios. Now we are not advocating all the fund in Amazon (well, not just yet at least), but in allowing past habits to anchor portfolio construction we have probably made the mistake of a starting holding that was almost certainly too low.”

Diversification

“The church of diversification, in whose pews the professional fund management industry sits, proposes many holdings. They do this not because managers have so many insights, but so few! Diversity, in this context, is seen as insurance against any one idea being wrong. Like Darwin, we find ourselves disagreeing with the theocracy. We would propose that if knowledge is a source of value added, and few things can be known for sure, then it logically follows that owning more stocks, does not lower risk but raises it!”

“In our opinion, just a few big things in life are knowable. And it is because just a few things are knowable that Nomad has just a few investments.”

“Sam Walton did not make his money through diversifying his holdings. Nor did Gates, Carnegie, McMurtry, Rockefeller, Slim, Li Ka-shing or Buffett. Great businesses are not built that way. Indeed the portfolios of these men were, more or less, one hundred percent in one company and they did not consider it risky! Suggest that to your average fund manager.”

Learning

“We still have much to learn.”

“As a young(ish) man there is something slightly depressing about thinking things through for a while, arriving at a somewhat reasoned conclusion only to find that others have been there before, and years earlier. In some respects we are fifty years behind Buffett, but that’s ok, so long as the average investor is at least fifty-one years behind!”

“Discovery is one of the joys of life, and in our opinion, is one of the real thrills of the investment process; the cumulative learning that leads to what Berkshire Hathaway Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger calls ‘Worldy Wisdom’. Worldly wisdom is a good phrase for the intellectual capital with which investment decisions are made and, at the end of the day, it is the source of any superior investment results we may enjoy.”

Patience

“At the beginning of the AGM of the Berkshire Hathaway Company they show this little video and each year Buffett is asked what’s the main difference between himself and the average investor, and he answers patience. And there is so little of it these days. Has anyone heard of getting rich slowly?”

“Good investing is a minority sport, which means that in order to earn returns better than everyone else we need to be doing things different to the crowd. And one of the things the crowd is not, is patient.”

Summary

These observations are but a fraction of the insights espoused in Nomad’s letters. Discourses on investment edges, the ‘robustness ratio’, business models, ‘value vs growth’, the ‘equity yield curve’, fee structures and behavioural finance more generally, while not included here, are worthy of their own posts. Sleep’s observations on habit change and the implications for internet retailing are imminently relevant in light of today’s Covid-19 inflicted consumer landscape.

Nick Sleep didn’t rely on complex models, non-public information or business relationships to deliver his returns. Like Munger, he reached into other disciplines for mental models he could apply to his thinking. Asking questions, thinking things through, turning ideas upside down and challenging conventional wisdom led to insights other investors couldn’t see. Sticking within his core competency, keeping it simple, and recognising the basic nature of the businesses he owned accorded him the patience to remain invested in compounding machines. Despite Nomad’s closure, Sleep remains invested in Amazon and Costco to this day.

Like Buffett’s missives, Nomad’s wonderfully articulate letters are likely to prove a rewarding resource that can enhance investment success. I implore you to read them. And then, re-read them. These are an absolute rarity that have recently come into the public domain, and offer as much relevant wisdom in today’s landscape as they did when they were first written. The Dead Sea Scrolls, indeed.

Further Reading:

The NOMAD Investment Partnership Letters - 2001-2013 are available on Mr. Sleep’s charitable foundation website here .. I.G.Y Foundation


Follow us on Twitter : 
@mastersinvest

TERMS OF USE: DISCLAIMER